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This week's newsletter is written by Iain Watson our political reporter on Today.
It was Oscar Wilde (isn't it always) who said "to expect the unexpected shows a thoroughly modern intellect" so you'd better call me an old-fashioned fool, then.
Despite a visit to the Dunfermline and West Fife constituency during the campaign, I certainly didn't expect the leaderless LibDems to come from a poor second at the general election to a triumphant first at last week's by-election. Perhaps this makes the case for their having a collective leadership, or junta, rather than a single figurehead. As their leadership contest doesn't conclude for another two weeks, there's still time for the LibDems to consider what would be a mould-breaking approach for one of the three main parties. Listen Again.
Perhaps, though, they've been pipped by Labour.
This week saw the start of what's being dubbed the 'dual leadership.'鈥ony Blair and his likely successor, Gordon Brown, are increasingly being regarded as Joint First Amongst Equals. But rather like the historic Austro-Hungarian Dual Monarchy, there's a feeling that this is a marriage of convenience the better to crush internal unrest before external forces finally push them apart.
It's early days, but so far on the revolt-crushing front at least, the arrangement seems to be working rather well.
The government faced some tricky votes this week and survived. Then again, at Labour's Spring conference in a decidedly wintry Blackpool last weekend, the party's spinners were emphasising what a difficult week lay ahead - a sure sign that they thought the government would prevail against their own revolting backbenchers. (No offence to Bob Marshall Andrews et al..)
So with the Commons now backing some of the most controversial aspects of Tony Blair's third -term agenda - from ID cards, to smoking bans, to criminalising those who 'glorify' terrorism and who encourage others to emulate terrorist acts - perhaps for the rest of this Parliament, you'll never again be treated to those Today programme packages which parade Labour rebels and loudmouthed Lords and which predict more trouble for the Prime Minister.
Well, if you prefer a rather more harmonious than acrimonious start to your day - sorry to disappoint. Despite the government's apparent triumphs, some important challenges remain. The government's majority was very nearly halved, to 38, when they reinstated wording on the glorification of terrorism in their anti-terrorist legislation on Wednesday, and at the time of writing - although there are some signals to the contrary - it's just possible the Lords may decide to take this out again or make further changes. The government would then be faced with either compromising or possibly holding up the rest of the legislation while they slog it out with the upper chamber.
It's also worth remembering that, on ID cards, we may be witnessing a defeat postponed rather than averted. The government have conceded that they will introduce new legislation before making the cards compulsory - which will come in the next parliament and, of course, a fourth Labour majority isn't guaranteed. And a slow burning cabinet row over the extent of a smoking ban was only extinguished by conceding a free vote - the result was to overturn a commitment made less than a year ago in the Labour manifesto to a partial ban on smoking in public places with exceptions for some clubs and pubs.
Nevertheless, the government have avoided the sort of 'headline' defeats which usually encourage comparisons between Labour's third term and John Major's ill-fated administration.
There may be a couple of credible reasons for this - apart from, of course, apparently Damascene conversions to the Project by previously sceptical backbenchers and a far more professional job by the party whips.
The first requires closer scrutiny of the Dunfermline by-election.
When Labour saw off a strong challenge from the SNP at the nearby Livingston by-election late last year, some Labour rebels undoubtedly felt that their votes against their own government carried no political price. So they were probably as surprised as I was at Labour's defeat last week - one of their top campaigners on the eve of poll was warning his Labour colleagues to expect a 'grim' result - a majority of around 2,000, down from more than 11,000. Oops! That turned out to be a Libdem not a Labour majority -though apart from that, his figures were right.
This result may have jolted some sceptics out of acts of apparent disunity. But their motivation may have more to do with shoring up not the Prime Minister but his successor. The by election really was held in Gordon Brown's backyard. Ok, not literally, but he does live in the constituency. Nobly, the Scottish Sec and friend of the Chancellor Alistair Darling sought to transport all blame from Gordon Brown to himself (Listen Again) and it's possible that Labour rebels felt that just as the Chancellor was spreading his wings this week and finally talking about topics with which the Treasury had only a tangential connection, it was better that they didn鈥檛 clip them in the wake of a by-election defeat.
Listen Again.
But the other reason might be a little more worrying for the government. The 'usual suspects' - the group of left wing MPs who want Tony Blair to go, and go quickly - will almost always rebel but usually loyal Labour backbenchers are less keen to make their own government look unstable so it's perfectly possible those with concerns are storing up their opposition for something which really upsets them...and upsets many of their local party members. That is, of course, the forthcoming Education Bill which would give more independence to state schools. While the news this week has concentrated on the parliamentary debates, behind the scenes at Westminster the real work has been going on to convince backbenchers to back the government's education reforms.
And, last weekend, at the Labour Spring conference while most of the TV, radio and print media reported the Prime Minister's very public speech to delegates, there were far fewer reports about the real purpose of his visit - to meet, behind closed doors, the leading Labour figures in local government to persuade them to back the education bill and then to further persuade them to lobby Labour MPs to do the same (Listen Again) but so far the scepticism at Westminster seems to be solidifying not dissipating.
Listen Again.
While he is offering no more concessions publicly, the Prime Minister has hinted that further 'adjustments' could be made to the Education Bill as it finally makes its way though parliament next month.
But all this puts pitfalls not so much in the way of the departing Prime Minister but his likely replacement. Gordon Brown has been shown private polling which makes it clear that so called 'swing' voters -those who usually decide elections - don鈥檛 like disunity and he's determined to blunt the Conservative leader, David Cameron's, attack that he is a 'roadblock to reform' and that a move from Blair to Brown would be a move to the Left. Listen Again.
So he has said he favours 'reform, reform, reform' - but some of the disgruntled backbenchers who bit their lips during the contentious parliamentary debates this week want 'change, change, change' when Tony Blair departs Downing St.
So while few of his colleagues wanted to rub salt in the Chancellor's wounds after his Dunfermline thrashing, he faces a difficult balancing act during the long period of the 'orderly transition' of power. He has to be loyal enough to Tony Blair to frustrate Tory attacks but he will also have to offer disgruntled backbenchers the prospect of a change in substance and not just style if and when he moves from no 11 to number 10.
Just beneath the radar, there are signs of the future turbulence he could encounter. One big union wants him to sign up to their agenda with the implicit threat that he can't count on their votes in a leadership contest if he doesn't - but from the opposite direction, some Blairites are complaining that public backing for the education reforms isn't enough -they want the Chancellor to proselytise for them.
This new compound, BlairBrown, appears to made from two volatile elements and it may just break up if heat is applied. Despite winning key parliamentary votes, the road to a fourth Labour victory under a new leader isn't nearly as smooth as it may have appeared this week.
Iain Watson
Political reporter for the Today Programme.
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