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From James Naughtie...
One of the more unusual but accurate descriptions of John Kerry I heard in the United States this week was this. 鈥淗e looks like a horse and sounds like a horse, but he鈥檚 probably a thoroughbred.鈥 That about sums it up. Kerry doesn鈥檛 have any of the silky skills of John Edwards, the man he has beaten for the Democratic nomination, but he has a certain forcefulness, despite the foghorn delivery and his tendency to deliver all his regular lines with exactly the same intonation. The question this week is : will it be enough?
It was interesting to visit the Republican National Committee and be told, straightforwardly, that the election had to be seen against the background of a divided country. There鈥檚 no pretence about George W Bush having done a Reagan, charming a big majority of Americans into supporting him. No such claim is made, and Republicans are just as ready as Democrats to acknowledge that the country is split. In 2000, after all, Al Gore won a greater share of the popular vote than Bush (by a tiny margin), a fact often overlooked in the concentration on the Florida voting fiasco. America is still in a mood to tilt either way.
Talking privately to some Democratic veterans, there鈥檚 no doubt that Kerry was never seen, and still isn鈥檛, as the perfect candidate. He鈥檚 often stiff, long service in the Senate is bound to throw up contradictions in past votes that can be turned against him, the sight of Ted Kennedy by his side as something of a father figure turns off as many people as it turns on, and his ability to light a spark in an audience seems limited. But he has got resilience, and a Vietnam war record that makes it impossible for him to be portrayed as some kind of Massachusetts weakling who鈥檇 faint at a whiff of cordite. It means that this tussle with Bush is likely to be close. Both sides think so.
The start of Bush鈥檚 campaign has been interesting. His decision to support a constitutional amendment on gay marriage tells its own story. It鈥檚 a cause beloved of the Religious Right (from whose ranks Bush does not come, whatever you may think) and he was, by all accounts, very reluctant to take the step. But the pressure from his party was such that he had to deliver : they鈥檙e very worried about the economy (the deficit is a most un-conservative achievement) and about jobs. So reassurance was given in the form of a social pledge, but one that could cause many problems.
Many people in the United States who either don鈥檛 support the concept of formal gay marriage (Kerry being among them) or who are virulently against it, don鈥檛 believe that a constitutional amendment is the right way to deal with it. The constitution is a semi-sacred document, and moreover one that is meant to give people rights, not to stop people doing things. The Bush pledge is one that won't necessarily give him an easy political advantage. Already Arnold Schwarzenegger (I know, I know, but he IS governor of California) has said it should be left to states to decide; something Dick Cheney, the vice-president, has said in the past (he has a daughter who is openly gay). That story has some way to run, and it is by no means clear how it will end.
On the Kerry side, the worry is that in the end the President will be able to turn national security into the centrepiece of the campaign. Bill Clinton鈥檚 former press secretary told us on the programme : if he succeeds in doing that, he wins. The first Republican ads ($5 million dollars worth this week in the wake of Kerry鈥檚 victory) used images of 9/11 which have upset some of the relatives of the dead. But we can expect more. The Republican convention is going to be the first in American history to be held in September. In New York. Guess why? However strongly many Americans may feel that this is an inappropriate way to fight a campaign, many others will disagree : despite deep worries about Iraq among many voters, there are many, many others who will simply not desert Bush in the 鈥渨ar on terror鈥.
The factor, however, which is unmistakeable in this year鈥檚 campaign is the anger on the Democratic side against Bush. It matches the Republican angst at Clinton, which was the tide that propelled Bush to victory. More voters took part in the primaries than usual. All the Democrats claim that their core vote will be there in November, because the anti-Bush passion is so great.
To counter it, Bush will have to draw on the ability he showed in the 90s in Texas and during the last campaign 鈥 a certain charm which drew many voters to him. Pollsters found in 2000 that they thought he was just a rather nicer guy than Gore. Who would you rather sit next to at a baseball game? Bush, they said. If he can do that again, he must still be favourite to win.
But the most important thing to remember about this race is that they haven鈥檛 reached the first bend yet and it has eight months to run. All sorts of things could happen. What, for example, if Osama bin Laden is captured? The gloomier Democrats are convinced that he is already cornered, ready to be produced as the prize exhibit in October. That, they reckon, would win it for Bush. On the other hand, the President鈥檚 reputation on the economy and jobs has taken a battering, and nothing much is going to improve there. He promised to create 4 million jobs in his first term; he鈥檚 lost 3 million instead. These are hard figures to massage, even for Karl Rove, Bush鈥檚 Svengali, a figure who is a sort of Peter Mandelson, Alastair Campbell and Max Clifford all rolled into one.
So off we head into a long campaign. We have to remember that only half of Americans may vote, and that there will be amounts of money spent that should make us all blush. The Bush campaign may well throw $150 million at it even before the convention (after which limits come into play). He has the biggest war-chest in political history. There will be buckets of mud thrown from both sides, and we will
metimes want to turn away from the crudities of the advertising war.
But still it will be absorbing. The trick is to remember that this is a marathon during which almost anything can happen 鈥 a crisis, a personal scandal, a terrorist attack. Let鈥檚 hope it鈥檚 none of those that shifts this election one way or the other, but after Kerry鈥檚 victory it鈥檚 important to remember that he has hardly started yet.
There鈥檚 an old piece of American election lore that says most voters don鈥檛 make up their minds until after the end of the World Series, the climax to the baseball season. It鈥檚 played in October. So everything before then is by way of preparation. Bush and Kerry will spend the spring and summer trying to imprint images on the electorate鈥檚 mind which, by the time the decision comes, prove to be indelible. I wouldn鈥檛 like to bet yet which one will be the more attractive to voters. This week, the White House is worried and the Democrats believe they have the makings of a winning campaign. But next week? Next month? None of us knows.
What can鈥檛 be said, though Ralph Nader鈥檚 tries to say it all the time in pursuit of his independent candidacy, is that there鈥檚 no difference between the candidates, that it doesn鈥檛 matter who wins. Already we know enough about the two appeals that will be made to know that America faces an important decision. The re-election of Bush would be a vote for a foreign policy involving pre-emptive strike and a continuing distancing from the UN and, in the United States, for a strong tilt to the Right, economically and socially, with a Supreme Court almost certainly turned in a markedly conservative direction with new appointments. The election of Kerry would take Americans in a quite different direction.
I am no good at horse-racing, and have deliberately stayed away from racecourses in an attempt to keep house and home together. But I鈥檓 attracted to the notion of Kerry as a thoroughbred : it鈥檚 a description that fits. But Bush has spent his life exceeding expectations, and might do so again. As in racing, betting on politics is a mug鈥檚 game. This election may be a classic. It will be absorbing, and for the right reasons. The result will make a difference.
James
Listen Again to James's reports from the key "Super Tuesday" Democratic Primaries this week:
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