成人快手

GM Douglas
You should know better!
Why on earth would we countenance the advice that emanates from a "club" whose "Members" in the majority were appointed by Tony Blair? I wonder how many of them are spivs, speculators, hedge-fund investors, utilising wealth managers to ensure that you and I pay higher taxes than themselves?
Everybody knows that PPP enabled Gordon Brown to purchase schools and hospitals off balance sheet (aka "the never never") - at enormous future expense to us and our children.
Have a wee word with Edinburgh University's Professor Pollock - you might find her to be a bit more impartial than someone who made his millions from one of Thatcher's privatisations.
John Swinney's "fag packet" (is that not a wee bit pejorative?) versus the vested interests of the House of Lords? Not a difficult choice to make. Some of us have not grown accustomed to Westminster shafting.
Slainte Mhor

If Douglas Fraser had his way, we'd be ruled by monarchy again. PPP/PFI is yet another example of why we need something different in politics - something aspirational coming from people who are not in the game for financial gain and who has the long-term in mind.

Consultant to probe cost of new Forth bridge

Members of the Scottish Parliament are calling on civil engineers to help explain the high cost of building the 2.6km long Forth Replacement Bridge.
The parliament鈥檚 Information Centre has employed consultant Biggar Economics to seek views from industry experts to determine why the project is to forecast to cost 拢2.04bn when the actual bridge is expected to cost just 拢543M.
Transport Scotland鈥檚 breakdown of project costs includes 拢543M for the bridge, 拢229M for approach roads and the improvement of the M9, 拢11M in IT systems and 拢138M in client costs. This brings overall construction costs to 拢898M. But inclusion of risk, optimism bias, VAT, debt and inflation takes the price to 拢2.04bn.
The consultancy wants to understand how the Forth鈥檚 unique overlapping cable design with three piers may affect costs, along with the unpredictability of the weather and the deepness of the water in the Forth Estuary.

Excellent piece Douglas. What you didn't mention is that post election, it is likely that the Lords will have their way and all "off balance sheet" liabilities will require to be identified in order to keep the rating agencies onside. Only then can we expect to see how insane many of the projects were - maximum return for little or no risk. For Scotland, SFT as you rightly say does not and cannot fill the gap. Living within our means will become the norm for highly indebted countries as our own and before the spin on "full fiscal autonomy", I,m afraid it simply isn't designed to invent new money - only Westminster and Zimbabwe can do that

Most projects will be coming onto balance sheets soon with implementation of IFRS in the public sector but need to watch the government budget accounting which will continue to keep them off. Nice smoke and mirrors stuff that calls itself European Standard of Accounting 95.

Trouble is one of the last to put projects on balance sheet will be local authorities swhose dabbling in PFI has left a financial millstone round the neck of LA finances that will last well into the future without passing any financial or demand risk onto the contractors. that's where the biggest liabilities will be - probably about 拢3-4bn in local authorities across Scotland-Phew!

"Optimum bias"

Yes totally.

I think it's about time to face fact that PPP PPI PPF and all can never work as they are all ran by bank like organisation, we now all know; not worth the paper they are written on or the boots they fill. This goes hand in hand with foreign rule.

Do you not feel that it is better to have the money to pay for things?

Lets face facts, the only way to fix Scotland鈥檚 dwindling performance and enhanced poverty stricken culture is not to mess around with proven crooks and take the reigns for ourselves.
If Scotland were to once again become a Sovereign Independent State then it and it's people would have the total potential to fully release Scotland鈥檚 Resources and Wealth to it's own populations advantage.

If Scotland was independent we could easily pay for a bridge over the Forth for ourselves with 60 days Oil revenue money alone quickly followed with a tunnel up the road with another 60's. We are not privy to our own resources as we are.

Do you not think that tunnels are a bit less troublesome than Bridges, if we are to mistakenly remain in the Union then I suppose only one of the above would ever be an option, if we are lucky & beg well enough. If that鈥檚 the case do you not think a tunnel might be a bit more stable?

Another wee infrastructure point;

Don't you think that its a bit funny how good things like high speed rail links have to start in London and work their way north, no doubts stopping somewhere around Hadrians wall.
Whearase something bad and experimental like the Poll Tax Starts North of Hadrians wall and works South, strange.

If we took control we could build an underground wind powered high speed national all town & city complete rail link :)

This is a pretty poor analysis, even allowing for it being a blog! For example,
鈥淭ake Network Rail's reckoning on building high speed rail. It did its calculation of cost, and then added 66% on top of that for optimism bias, so it played a very large part of the 拢34bn figure. That same element doesn't seem to be included in private finance, so it's hardly a level playing field.鈥�
This confuses two things. The reason that an amount for optimism bias (by public bodies) is added to the public sector comparator is that public bodies typically under-estimate the eventual capital cost outturn in public procurement. This was the subject of Swedish research (if I remember correctly). The amount of optimism bias varies according to sector and diminishes over the procurement time frame. On the other hand, a bidder will indeed add in contingencies for the risks that are inherent in the process. It is just that they don鈥檛 call it optimism bias 鈥� it is just another way of referring to the value of the risk being transferred to the private sector.
Another example,
鈥淏ut the concerns are there too, including the secondary market. That's the way in which builders can win a contract, and then sell it on once they have extracted their value from it. Operating that way, the incentive is removed for including quality materials, built to last, when it will be another company carrying out the maintenance over the next three decades.鈥�
No-one is going to buy the contractor鈥檚 equity without doing due diligence first (I have been involved in such due diligence so I know what is involved). It is absolutely not the casr=e that a contractor will think in the way described because it knows that unless it builds a good quality asset no-one will buy their equity!