Sudan: back to the brink?
The trumpets will sound; the drums will beat; the flags will flutter proudly. Remember those words? Of course you do: they're the words with which I started my first blogpost of 2011 - and I was writing about Sudan.
I'm writing about Sudan again today - because with just over three weeks to go until the official birth of the new nation of South Sudan (trumpets, drums, etc.), there are ominous signs of a deal unravelling and a fragile peace giving way to renewed conflict. Just last night, President Obama expressed his "deep concern" about the growing violence.
Sudan is one of the most important countries on the African continent. It's the biggest (two and a half million square kilometres, or nearly a million square miles); it has a population of around 40 million, and substantial oil reserves in which China has a major interest.
It's also the only country in the world whose head of state is an indicted war criminal. A year ago, Omar al-Bashir was charged with genocide by the International Criminal Court in connection with offences allegedly committed during the war in the western region of Darfur, in which between 200,000 and 400,000 people are estimated to have died.
Osama bin Laden was based in Sudan in the early 1990s, after he left Saudi Arabia and before he set up shop in Afghanistan. In 1998, the US launched a cruise missile attack against a Sudanese pharmaceutical factory that it said was linked to al Qaeda and might have been used for the production of chemical weapons.
In other words, we ignore Sudan at our peril. The conflict in Darfur was, for a time, the focus of widespread global concern - and it's by no means impossible that it could be reignited if current tensions boil over.
The birth of the independent nation of South Sudan next month is meant to mark the end of a grim 20-year chapter of civil war between the northern and southern parts of the country. A referendum held in January saw something like 99 per cent of southerners vote for separation - but even after the votes had been counted, and after President Bashir had said he would respect the result, tensions remained.
For one thing, the exact demarcation line between the two entities hadn't been finalised. In one region, Abyei, there was meant to be a separate referendum in which its residents could decide whether they wanted to be part of the north or the south. The referendum still hasn't been held.
In another region, South Kordofan, which is on the northern side of the notional border, most people feel a greater loyalty to the south. Two days ago, the United Nartions reported that an estimated 60,000 people had fled from the region after bombing raids by the Sudanese air force.
One southern group accused Khartoum of pursuing a "genocidal campaign' in the region, and the UN was reported to have referred in a confidential document to what it called a campaign of "ethnic cleansing" by President Bashir.
So the omens aren't looking good for South Sudan's Independence Day on 9 July. At stake are vital reserves not only of oil, but also of water, on which the lives of millions of people depend. Perhaps paradoxically, it is the great misfortune of Abyei and South Kordofan to find themselves slap bang in the middle of some of the potentially most valuable Sudanese real estate.
President Bashir has shown himself over many years to be a master of saying one thing and doing another. There was a huge international sigh of relief when the independence referendum was held in January and the president responded with magnanimity.
But now, in the last few weeks before his country is formally split in two, the question is whether his actions will match his words, or whether he will seek to prevent the south seceding by returning to war.
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Comment number 1.
At 17th Jun 2011, BluesBerry wrote:Tuesday, rebel leader, David Yau Yau signed a ceasefire with Govt of Southern Sudan in Pibor county, Jonglei state. The next day, in a press conference, David Yau Yau urged other rebel groups to put down their arms. He called this an historic moment as Sudanese can agree to their own issues, come together & solve their own problems. He signed a ceasefire with team that came from Juba (Head office of Southern Sudan his Excellency President Salver Kiir Mayardit).
He had a message to the rest of the groups that have been disputing the government. I would like to tell them that by fighting we will not achieve anything, but through negotiations we will be able to solve our differences & understand one another. We will reach an agreement which is far much better than fighting each other. Presidential Advisor for Peace and Security, Ismail Kony said that the agreement comes at a time when the region is preparing for its independence. Kony confirmed the Government of Southern Sudan & group of Major General Yau Yau today finalized the agreement.
(Rebel Yau Yau rebelled in protest of the April 2010 election results in his constituency. As an independent candidate he lost a parliamentary seat contest to the SPLM candidate.)
So, now we wait...
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Comment number 2.
At 17th Jun 2011, BluesBerry wrote:From what the Obama administration is saying, I have to wonder how well briefed he's been on the overall Sudanese situation. Administration & UN have been rather timid, but there is an expert on Sudan whose name is Eric Reeves. Eric maintains the international community should have anticipated, given apparent policy of targeting of civilians & obstructing relief efforts. He added emphatically that it was criminal negligence not to have warned Khartoum in the strongest possible terms against an attack on this crucial piece of infrastructure (runway).
By all accounts thus far, the northern and southern armies are not equally at fault in the current crisis. Considering the SPLA鈥檚 own record, it is likely that forces aligned with the South have committed atrocities as well, & getting verifiable information from Southern Kordofan is next to impossible. Instead, there鈥檚 an emphasis on the responsibility of 鈥渂oth sides,鈥 鈥渂oth parties,鈥 to 鈥渓ive up to their responsibilities鈥 to the Comprehensive Peace Agreement. While President Obama鈥檚 own voice lends attention, his rhetoric remains off putting, misconstruing the nature of the current violence by giving the impression that the northern & southern govts evenly share the blame. As a result, the current debate over what should be done lacks the outrage that the North鈥檚 blatant targeting of civilians and humanitarians deserves.
Anyway, as I said in first piece, now we wait...
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Comment number 3.
At 17th Jun 2011, BluesBerry wrote:I have on last thing to say that demonstrates the American misunderstanding of Sudan.
June 16, 2011, US envoy was calling for military action against Sudan June 16, 2011. This was allegedly to prevent further escalation of violence over/in Abyei & the south in general.
Meanwhile, also on June 16, 2011, Sudanese belligerents in South Kordofan were agreeing to cease hostilities, initiate talks. The warring sides in Sudan鈥檚 South Kordofan State eventually (same day) agreed to cease hostilities & enter negotiations.
Shows you, sometimes the best thing foreign powers can do is stay the Heck out!
Now we wait...
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Comment number 4.
At 18th Jun 2011, BluesBerry wrote:Looks like I was quick on the draw. Renewed shelling between north & south Sudanese troops - shelling on both sides of the river. Later there was shelling just a little bit north of Agok. S. Sudan is just over 3 weeks away from declaring independence, but Khartoum & Juba have yet to decide who should control Abyei region. Khartoum seized Abyei's main town on May 21, pushing as far south as the Kiir River, known as Bahr al-Arab in the north. Since then the waterway has become the line of demarcation. Negotiators from both sides have been meeting in neighbouring Ethiopia. Despite reaching an agreement "in principle" to demilitarise Abyei, no firm (signed) deal has emerged.
Southerners voted for independence in January referendum (promised in 2005 peace agreement that ended a long and brutal civil war. At least two million people died in that conflict.)
I think the conflict will resolve before S. Sudan independence day, but I was wrong to assume clashes had stopped in entirety...but back to the brink? No, I don't believe that full-scale deterioration is eminent.
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Comment number 5.
At 20th Jun 2011, dmitya wrote:Thank you for recognizing the severity of the situation in Sudan. I will tell you that the situation there is more serious than being reported. How do I know this: I just evacuated from South Kordofan last Thursday.
What people need to understand is that Bashir is a CRIMINAL, he wasn't accidentally given this label. He says one thing to the international community while perpetrating horrible crimes on the people. The elections in South Kordofan were a scam and an embarassment to the credibility of the Carter Center. People in South Kordofan may be relatively uneducated, but who in their right mind would elect a mass murderer? Would you elect a mayor for you town after finding out he was indicted for rape, murder, arson? What about those crimes on a massive scale. Bashir and the puppet governor Ahmed Haroun are monsters. To go to negotiation tables with them is an insult to the people who suffer under them.
Also the notion that South Kordofan is a rebellion should be ignored. It is Northern rhetoric. South Kordofan was due a popular consultation under the CPA (laughable peace accord drafted by UN.) The cease fire that led to the CPA was won at the expense of Nuba (predominant South Kordofan ethnicity) lives. The Nuba identify themselves with the SPLA and fear Arab notherners. The international community needs to consider these realities and ignore rhetoric from Bashir. The Nuba are justified in fighting for independence. Democracy is being displayed by Nuba voting with Kalichnokovs b/c the peace process and elections were an insult.
Bashir is desperate to salvage some parts of Sudan that have natural resources. He is in a dangerous position. Currently, he is LOSING the fight on the ground in South Kordofan and resorting to desperate tactics. Bombing (I witnessed) and even rumors of chemical weapons. If it leaks out his army was unable to take South Kordofan, the JEM in Darfur, SPLA in Blue Nile and Eastern Front, and possibly even the South will want to tear Khartoum to pieces.
Sudan is not pretty. Going to negotiation tables is not a solution. It only allows innocents to suffer while war mongers posture. Bashir must go. Then we only pray that there isn't fighting over the vacuum.
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Comment number 6.
At 21st Jun 2011, BluesBerry wrote:China has invited Sudan's President Omar Hassan al-Bashir. Foreign Ministry Spokesman Hong Lei says inviting head of country that maintains a normal diplomatic relationship with China should not be subject to criticism. China is not one of the parties of the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court (Neither is the United States.). China has reserved its own opinion towards the International Criminal Court lawsuit against President Omar al-Bashir.
Bashir's visit, scheduled for June 27-30, comes ahead of the July 9 separation of the southern part of the country. Bashir stands to lose a third of the country's territory & up to 3/4 of its oil reserves when the south leaves. Violence has intensified as date gets closer. China is pleased to see that Sudan's government and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement have reached an agreement. Khartoum seized Abyei's main town on May 21, causing tens of thousands of people to flee, raising fears the two sides could return to open conflict.
Let's see if the famous Chinese negotiation skills can settle the matter down.
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