Formula One Weather Forecast: Italian Grand Prix 2010
Monza,Ìý10 -Ìý12ÌýSeptember 2010 (Round 14)
(This forecast will be regularly updated. This entry: FridayÌý10 September, 06:20hrs BST)
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- Ìý(via Agenzia Regionale per la Protezione Ambientale,ÌýPiemonte)
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Forecast Summary:
(PPN = Precipitation)
·¡³¾±è³ó²¹²õ¾±²õ:ÌýA dry & fine spell of settled weather expected across all three days.Ìý
Friday:ÌýSunny and fineÌýwith some scatteredÌýconvective cloud development. Chance of PPN <5%. Max 23C. Wind light &Ìývariable, predominantly SW.
Saturday: Dry, sunny and settled. Max 23C. Wind lightÌýS-SSE.
³§³Ü²Ô»å²¹²â:ÌýContinuing sunny, dryÌýand fine; some convective cloud development PM. Max 23C. Wind light, variable, predominantlyÌýSSW.Ìý
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Synopsis & Forecast Evolution:
I returned from holidayÌývery early this morningÌýand immediately settled on the sofa to watch the Belgium Grand Prix, having successfuly avoided all newsmedia and potential 'spoilers'Ìýwhilst away! It was quite a strange experience, watching recordings of qualifying and race 'as live', hoping the forecast updates I'd been giving while abroad via Twitter proved correct.ÌýAs it transpired,Ìýthe SpaÌýweather proved much as expected... and what a fantastic race it was!
After those varied 'banana skins' of Ardennes weather, it's a very different forecast prospect for this next event in Monza. We're now into the driest month of the year, in terms ofÌý.Ìý
I've been catching-up with theÌýmodel outputÌýand the general consensus and continuity between the main operational centresÌýlooks pretty decent this time -Ìýall of it leaning strongly in favour of a dry and settled spell between Friday and Sunday.
In broadscale terms, an upper trough and vortexÌýwill provide periodically inclement conditionsÌýinto Thursday, with attendant showers across parts of northern Italy likely to then ease away southwards and eastwards overnight, long before Friday's action gets underway.
Friday itself is a day of transition to fine conditions; the influence of the upper trough relaxing; surface pressure rising and the risk of further showers greatly reduced. It should prove a dry and fine day for FP1 & 2, with just a very small % chance of isolated showers as theÌýresidual of upper forcing slips away eastwards from northern Italy into the Adriatic.
Into the weekend, ridge conditions continue developing from the west and indeed more broadly to the east as well. It's partly courtesy ofÌýan extension of theÌýAzores High, which willÌýbecome a dominant feature by Sunday across western Europe, with a high cell also located towards Russia.Ìý
Both Saturday and Sunday thus look dry, fine and settled with plenty of sunshine. Some fair-weather cloud and convective infillÌýwill tend to develop by the afternoon perhaps, more especially soÌýlater on Sunday. AÌýdry race therefore, with ambient temperature inthe low to mid 20's C bracket and light winds.
TheÌýrun-to-run continuity from ECMWF,ÌýUKMO andÌýGFS isÌývery good, so forecast confidenceÌýremains high for dry running to prevailÌýduring all practice sessions, qualifying and race. I'll keep you updated on any change of emphasis.ÌýÌý
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I'm Ian Fergusson, a ³ÉÈË¿ìÊÖ Weather Presenter based in the West Country. From benign anticyclones to raging supercell storms, my blog discusses all manner of weather-related issues. I also provide updated race weekend forecasts tied to our ³ÉÈË¿ìÊÖ coverage of Formula One. You can follow me on , too.
Comment number 1.
At 9th Sep 2010, CiaranJ wrote:While I normally relish a wet race weekend, the fact that I'll be at Monza this weekend means I will actually appreciate some sun so this is excellent news. Now where did I put the sunblock?
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Comment number 2.
At 9th Sep 2010, sparkymarky wrote:Did you have a nice Holiday Ian?
Unfortunately I don't Monza will produce a great race, but let's hope I'm wrong.
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Comment number 3.
At 9th Sep 2010, Ian Fergusson ³ÉÈË¿ìÊÖ Weather wrote:Hi SparkyMarky - yes thanks, had a good holiday; lots of interesting fish to photograph! Re Monza prospects - actually I'm of the opinion that it'll be a very interesting race for a number of reasons. It's such a crucial milestone now in the WDC standings; any further mistakes from the leaders could prove really crucial. In particular, after the Spa dramatics, if the likes of either Vettel, Button and Alonso fail to score major point tallies (or for that matter, suffer DNF's) at Monza whilst at the same time Hamilton and Webber do so, then we will surely see the championship fall ever more into a two-horse race. I'm of the impression that Lewis really has the bit between his teeth; he has scented more than a whiff of grasping WDC No2 at the end of this journey and I've not seen him driving better than of late. He's looking truly awesome and his quali lap to grab 2nd at Spa was surreal. Mark is also on a roll; the various internal shenanigans at Red Bull post-Turkey/Silverstone really seemed to have spurred him into a different league whilst the pressure on Seb Vettel continues to expose highly costly errors of judgement, each with various elements of similarity. He really needs a win here, period. Ferrari, meanwhile, need to pull out all the stops at their home race but can you begin to imagine how they'll cope if Massa once again finds himself ahead of Alonso?! Yup, I think it'll be a potential cracker of an event this weekend. There's so much to play for; so much can go wrong! Best, Ian
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Comment number 4.
At 9th Sep 2010, sparkymarky wrote:Yes, the title scrap could get very messy. That might producer a great race. We'll never know until sunday
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Comment number 5.
At 9th Sep 2010, James S wrote:Should be a great race with 4/5 teams possibly fighting for the podium.
It's a shame that it won't rain at all. However, the ³ÉÈË¿ìÊÖ currently say 'Light Rain Shower' for Sunday. I suppose that could be because of the threat of convective rain, like in Turkey a couple of months ago. Also, remember last year at Monza where an hour after qualifying there was a downpour so an afternoon shower is not out of the question. Many sources say it shouldn't rain with percentages between 0% and 3%. However, I've still got my hopes up!
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Comment number 6.
At 10th Sep 2010, stevvy1986 wrote:Welcome back Ian. James S, yes there was a downpour 1hr after qualifying last year, but it was noted in the days before that there was a chance of rain, so it wasn't totally unexpected. It's safe to say that there's basically 0% chance whatsoever of rain for the rest of the weekend. There'll barely even be any cloud, let alone any rain, so don't get your hopes up for rain, because it'd take something absolutely extraordinary for it to rain at any point before the end of Sunday's race. When I say absolutely extraordinary, I mean REALLY incredibly monumentally mind bogglingly absolutely extraordinary. It won't rain.
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