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Valencia, 25-27ÌýJune 2010 (Round 9)

(This forecast will be regularly updated. This entry: SundayÌý27 June, 11:50hrs BST)

Quick Links:

• Ìý(via Agencia Estatal de Meteorología)
• (EUMETSAT/DWD via sat24.com)

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Nowcast Updates:

Sun. 12:55BST: Increasing cloud from the south, courtesty of the feature edging north (described below). Along the Costa Blanca south of Valencia (Benidorm and environs), it's now producing some isolated showers coastally and somewhat inland.Still worth keeping an eye on these developments albeit main thrust of any PPN remains offshore edging NNE.

Sun. 11:50BST: A dry, fine start in Valencia today, albeit the cumulus clouds forming in skiesÌýabove the circuit areÌýoffering aÌýhint of increasing mid-level destabilization. It's because to the south, an area of forcing moving northwardsÌýis producing a thundery cluster presently developing offshoreÌýthrough the Catalon SeaÌýinto Ibiza (very evident on satellite -Ìý see link above). It's recently showing signs of furtherÌýconvective developmentsÌýup through the Costa Blanca itself. The main thrust takes a NNE trajectory just offshore away from Valencia and so any risk of showers still remains small (as noted in previous updates)Ìýthrough the race window. Nonetheless, it's worth keeping a eye of the satellite / radar links above....certainly can't offer a cast-iron guarantee of totally dry weather this afternoon, albeit this remainsÌýhighly probable for the race itself.

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Forecast Headlines:

(PPN = Precipitation)

Friday:ÌýSunny;Ìýchance of PPN 35%. ÌýMax 26C. Winds moderate ESE.

Saturday: Sunny; chance of PPNÌý30%.ÌýMax 26C. Winds moderateÌýESE.

³§³Ü²Ô»å²¹²â:ÌýSunny;Ìýchance ofÌýPPN 35%. Max 26C. Winds moderate, SE.Ìý

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Fernando Alonso tackles the Valencia street circuit in the Renault during 2009's event. After a strong showing in Montreal, he's upbeat about his chances forÌýthis year's European GPÌýin the Ferrari. Dry, sunny weather will prevail (Photo: AP / Alberto Saiz)

Synopsis and Forecast Emphasis:

After rather dull races for the past two years, I'm sure many fans would crave for a spell of wet running to enliven the spectacle at Valencia's street circuit. If so, you might well be disappointed with this weekend'sÌýforecast...

However,ÌýI think this year's race could wellÌýprove a good deal better in any case - not least given the tight level of competitiveness we've witnessed in some very compelling races this season.

Dry or mostly dry conditions areÌýexpected across Valencia each day for this year's event,Ìýwith a low (typically <40%) collective chance of showers from Friday to the end of Sunday.ÌýA thermal low has developed across peninsular Spain, delivering some hefty showers and thunderstorms inland where they'll continueÌýas the weekend progresses. However, theÌýprecipitation signal from various model ensemblesÌýremainsÌýfairlyÌýlow for Mediterranean coastal districts of SpainÌýand similarly acrossÌýValencia itself. So albeit showers are possible, they're unlikely.

Each day will see some very warm conditions in periods of strong sunshineÌýas temperatures readily climb to the mid to high 20's C and track temperatures doubtless way up into mid 40'sC+. Winds will remain mostly light during the morning, but with moderate sea breezes then developing into the afternoon.

In turn, these sea breezes could - if conditions are favourable -Ìýoffer a convergence zoneÌý'strip'Ìýinland whereÌýsome towering cumulus clouds will tend to grow and offer anÌýincreased shower potential by evening. It's not impossible that some evening and overnight showers could appear over Valencia, albeit this remains a low point probability.

The UK Met Office's MOGREPS ensemble modelling has offered around a 40% chance of precipitation (effectively as light showers)Ìýat some stage across Valencia and environs during the weekend, with greatest focus on Friday and Saturday. Spanish probability of precipitation (PoP) models are in agreement,Ìýoffering a collective rainfall chance around 15-40%, peaking on Friday and with the driest signal for Sunday. The GFS ensemble also paints an essentiallyÌýlow rainfall probability.ÌýAll the NWP products agree on keeping the greatest shower potential a good deal further inland, especially into northern-central parts of Spain. Early Friday morning, some showers have been skirtingÌýtowards the Costa del Sol as a small area of forcing migrates northeastwards; this will tend to offer some convective developments into parts of the Costa Blanca later and still a small potential for showers.