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Istanbul Park, 28-30 May 2010 (Round 7)

(This forecast will be regularly updated. This entry: SundayÌý30 May, 14:20hrs BST)

Quick Links:

• (via Turkish State Meteorological Service)
• (EUMETSAT, via sat24.com)

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Forecast / Nowcast updates:

Sunday, 14:20BST: If you are wondering why the shower seems so lame, refer to my remark before this race, in the comments below: "...the conditions will tend to favour any light showers largely evaporating before reaching the ground."

Sunday, 13:32hrs BST: Re my comment below about the small risk of showers.... well, we're watching a shower forming south of the circuit in a convergence zone; will this one shower hit the circuit? Looks possible!

Sunday, 10:25hrs BST: Current conditions at the circuit, as photographed by my colleague Sarah Holt:

Sunday, 10:00hrs BST: Very warm, dry conditions this morning across the circuit and the original forecast for todayÌýcontinues to hold firm with little amendment. Increasing amounts of high cirrus cloud will become evident from the westÌýthrough the afternoon, making the sunshine somewhat hazier with time. There's continuing inter-model agreement for the risk of showers to remain extremely low and ambient temperature to reach around 28C. A moderate breeze developing (much like on Saturday), predominantly northerly.

Thursday, 20:50hrs BST: No significant changes to add to the forecast I posted earlier this week. Well, that makes a change, forÌýmy F1 weather blogs this season!

Inter- (and intra) forecast model continuity has been pretty good for the best part of a week, since I wrote the initial entry.

We're set for fairly hot conditions (approaching or even exceeding 30C ambientÌýmost afternoons); generally a lot of strong sunshine and a very, ±¹±ð°ù²âÌýsmall risk of any showers, despite the periodically thundery conditions reliably forecast out acrossÌýparts of theÌýBalkans, GreeceÌýand some parts of eastern Turkey.

The model agreement keeps this threat firmly over inÌýthe European side of the Bosphorus / Sea of MarmaraÌýand - on the Asiatic side -Ìýa longÌýway eastwards of Istanbul, too.

As earlier noted, worth keeping an eye on the track temperatures through the practice sessionsÌýand consequent evidence of tyre degradation... could be a real factor, in my view.

Hope you enjoy our ³ÉÈË¿ìÊÖ Red Button and Online coverage tomorrow (Friday)Ìýmorning, for FP1 from 07:55hrs local time!

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Current Forecast Headlines:

Friday:ÌýSunny and dry;Ìý Max 30C. Winds light, N.

Saturday: Sunny spells; variable cloud coverÌýand dry; Max 30C. Winds light, NE.

Sunday: Sunny and dry; Max 28C. Winds light-moderate, N-NE.Ìý

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Dry and fairly hot conditions look set to dominate the weatherÌýthroughout this next event at the Istanbul Park Circuit, located just southeast of the Turkish capital.

After the rather cool conditions experiencedÌýat various races this year -Ìýmost notablyÌýin China - it'll prove a very different challenge this time, as the teams take to architect Hermann Tilke's , which hosted it's inaugural Grand Prix in 2005. It's one of four anticlockwiseÌýracesÌýbeing held duringÌýthis year's race calendar (check out the video sequence, below).

Ambient temperatures here in Pendik, Akfirat County, will climb into the high twenties celsius each day; potentially reaching 30C at times on Friday and Saturday. With strong sunshine and generally well-broken cloud, the track temperature will soar to the highest values we've seen at any race weekend in 2010Ìýsince Bahrain.

I've beenÌýkeeping acrossÌýsome to-and-fro over the last 3 daysÌýin the broadscale synoptic developments, but the various forecast models we employ are now settling into general agreement, with a strong probability of dry weather prevailing.

Unsettled, showery / thunderyÌýconditions will be affecting parts of Greece and the Balkans during the race weekend; similarly, there'sÌýfairly consistent signal for showers (possibly thundery)Ìýat times further eastwards across Turkey. However, the current crop of model ensembles indicate thatÌýthese are very unlikely around the circuit itself, so there's a high likelihood ofÌýdry running throughout each session.

Further forecast detail (and any change to the emphasis) will follow here on the blogÌýas we approach Friday.

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