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UPDATE, 12:40hrs, FRIDAY 5 FEBRUARY 2010:

Almost feeling like spring today, isn't it?

We've seen some glorious morning sunshine and temperatures widely reaching 10C (50F) today across the West Country. However, the clouds are tending to grow more readily as I look out of the window here in South Gloucestershire and yes, we'll see some showersÌýacross some districts, some potentially thundery. Nonetheless, it's a pretty pleasant end to an otherwise largely inclement working week!

So, on to the future... remember where you put the ice scraper before this mild week began? Best to try and locate it once again...

My previous blog entry hinted at the return of colder weather this month and indeed that's now firmly on the cards for next week. However, just how cold things will getÌý- and for how long - remain aspects of considerable forecast uncertainty.

For the most part, I'm expecting our region toÌýexperience a largely dry, increasingly cold, frostyÌýbut otherwise rather unremarkable spell of weather for at least the first half of next week and quiteÌýpossibly for a few daysÌýbeyond that.

The current Met Office forecasts herald little risk of significant snow anywhere next weekÌýacross the British Isles and especially soÌýfor the SW and manyÌýsouthern-central areas of England.Ìý

However, we're expecting some accumulations to develop through Tuesday and Wednesday in eastern England, including parts of East Anglia and down towards the SE, as the increasingly cold air occasionally feeds-in snow across the North Sea to our shores.

There's also always a risk that Atlantic systems could progress far enough eastwards, into the pooled cold air, to bring snowfall into the West Country at some point later this month. Of course, we've seen this sort of snow-bearing mechanism already at work through this winter and a repeat performance is by no means impossible. On present reckoning however, it's an outcome of very low probability - at least for the next week.

Late next weekend (Sunday 14th)Ìý- based on the very latest Met Office modelling - there's aÌýprospect of heavy rain arrivingÌýinto the SW and parts of the South of England, from which some snow inland (away from the extreme SW)Ìýis a low probability consequence: indeed, less than 20% chance based on current analysis.

The forecast through to the end of the coming fortnight (10 to 15 days ahead)Ìýcontinues cold, with some potentially harsh overnight frosts for many but - as yet - a very muted signal for any prospects of heavy snow, despite a chance of the weather turning a tad more unsettled and windy at times.

I do stress it's all subject to change - I'll keep you updated through a new blog entry in due course.

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(ORIGINAL ENTRY follows)

If you're a motorist, you've probably fumbled for the ice-scraper beneath the passenger seat this morning.

However,Ìýafter today's frosty start, it's unlikely you will be needing it for the week ahead...

Indeed, at times over the next few daysÌýit will seem noticeably mild - certainly compared to much of the winter thus farÌý- as spells of wet and windy weather spread off the Atlantic toÌýgive heavy rain in someÌýdistricts during Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

Across north-east England and indeed southern Scotland, we're expecting the colder conditions to prevail and here the advancing spells of rain will turn to snow at times. But there's no real risk of any snow for us here in the south.

Temperatures for most of us will be around the seasonal average - perhaps a notch higher for a whileÌýinto Wednesday and Thursday - but we're still expecting things to turn somewhat colder again laterÌýthe following week.

The latest Met Office synoptic chart for midday, Friday 5 February 2010. It continues a theme of a somewhatÌýmilder - and wetter - flow prevailingÌýthis week,Ìýas Atlantic depressions cross the country to bring some spells of heavy rain and quite strong winds forÌýmany districts.

The prospect of a profoundly cold spell of weather, as the Met Office suspected could ariseÌýwhenÌýI wrote my last blog,Ìýis not altogether impossible but hangs in the balance.Ìý Turning colder - eventually and by a rather uncertain marginÌý-Ìýstill remainsÌýthe expected outcome after this milder interlude.

Based on current analysis by the Met Office, the most likely scenarioÌýis for the wet and windy conditionsÌý(gales, even perhaps severe gales) to lessen somewhat into the weekend, with an unsettled showery but still rather mild flavour to our weatherÌýprevailing into the midweek period thereafter... after whichÌýthings will probably start to turn colder.

Crucially, there's a wide spread of pressure patterns developing in the model ensembles around that sameÌýtimeÌýand so confidence on the type of weather we'll seeÌýremains low... for now.

However, the models are suggesting a steadily decreasing chance ofÌýheavier precipitation into that 10-15 day period. There's little signal in the current crop of supercomputer forecasts for significant snowfall at low levels and so on balance, the Met Office is suggesting we'll see some hill snow at times - initially in northernÌýEngland and then progressively more widely - and someÌýlighter outbreaksÌýat lower levels at timesÌý(at least whereÌýsouthern districts are concerned).

It's of course an evolving story, but at the time of writing, dry(ish), cold (perhaps very cold) weather, with aÌýlikelihood of very hard frosts,Ìýseems the broaderÌýstory into the 10-15 day period, but for at least the next 7 days or so we're expectingÌývery muchÌýthe opposite!Ìý

So, never mind finding that ice scraper tomorrow morningÌý- you'll be reaching for the brolly instead...

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