Umbrella-wrecking weather approaches...
I was taking a look around the web a moment ago for windproof brollies - yes, they do exist - because I'm not eager toÌýsee my treasured ³ÉÈË¿ìÊÖ-branded oneÌýwrecked in the weatherÌýwe're forecasting forÌýtomorrow.
My oft-cited desire to see wet and windy autumnalÌýconditions will bear fruit on Tuesday.ÌýAÌýpotent depression will spin-in off the Atlantic, , blowing at more than 230mph.Ìý And that's even faster than Jenson Button.
By morning rush-hour onwards, I'm expecting a distinctly inclement spell of weatherÌýto sweep across all of the West Country. After the recent prolonged period of largely benign weather,Ìýtomorrow will seem quite a shock to the system, I'd imagine.
Heavy rain at times through the late morning and early afternoonÌýcould becomeÌýmore than a mere nuisanceÌýacross the streets of Bristol, Taunton, Swindon and other urban areas. You've doubtless noticed how many leaves are stillÌýon the trees andÌýif brought-down rather quickly by theÌýwinds, they could block some drains, restricting run-off and leaving a lot of standing water.
And those leaves will certainly be sent tumbling tomorrowÌýin some gusty conditions, as an moves steadily eastwards towards midday.
Talking of gusty conditions, many of the occur during the autumn and winter months, oftenÌýembedded within active, squally cold fronts. Their genesis relies on all manner of small-scale (and often short-lived)Ìýatmospheric variables being 'just right', making them extremely tricky to forecast with any true accuracy (let alone at a local level). ÌýI'm sure the storm-chasing community who discussÌýsevere weather onlineÌýat the likes of and will be watching Tuesday's developments with interest. But looking at the set-up, I'm reckoningÌýit's a very low likelihoodÌýfor any tornado sightingsÌýtomorrow. I'd be interested to read the thoughts on this fromÌýthe extreme weather aficionados, here on the blog...Ìý
Now, much though I'd love to be chasing storms tomorrow in scruffy jeans and waterproofs,Ìýinstead I have to get into work dressed in a suit and trying to avoid a drenching. And I'm not keen to see my favourite umbrella head straightÌýfor the rubbish bin, in a tangled mess of waterproof fabric and twisted metal, within seconds of deploying it.
These windproof brollies on the web look ideal. Such evocative names: Gustbuster, Windbreaker, Typhoon, Stormshield... I'm spoilt for choice.
BetÌýI'll still get totally soaked, however.
UPDATE Tuesday 20 October, 1200hrs:
Well, the heavy rain from this occlusion continues to hold just west of much of our region - at least for now. But it's a different story in west Somerset, Devon and parts of Cornwall, as the recent rainfall radar image here clearly shows! It's been tipping-down in those districts in the last couple of hours, with asÌýthe heavy rain edges slowly eastwards. We're currently expecting the main band to weaken and fragment somewhat as it approaches the likes of Bristol, Bath & Gloucester, but further heavyÌýrain is thenÌýlikely to re-emergeÌýinto this afternoon from the south, as the front crosses Wiltshire and along the M4 towards London.
UPDATE Tuesday 20 October, 20.00hrs:
So, the picture is somewhat complex this eveningÌý- much as expected.
I spent some time discussing it all with my colleague Richard Angwin; consideringÌýhow best we can handle theÌýevening forecasts, including the 10.30pm bulletin, in whichÌýI'll present our 30-second weather update. So much detail to squeeze (unscripted!) into so little time! The difficulty is the current re-invigoration of rain (some heavy) affecting two distinct areas at the moment, as you can see in the recent Met Office radar image here: one stretching northwards out across Wiltshire and another further west, up through Dorset, Somerset and towards Bristol. It's hard toÌýjudge the longevity of either feature,Ìýalbeit we expect the western one to gradually fade. The eastern one may linger there or thereabouts for some time overnight,Ìýbut the heavier rain will steadily migrate northwards and eastwards.Ìý And as I noted above, .
Comment number 1.
At 20th Oct 2009, Cliff-T wrote:I was a bit disappointed here, just a few mm of rain today. Yet all the ingredients seemed in the right place. PVA was at VORTMAX along the coast, and for quite a time, yet that rain band seems very straggly.
Certainly not how i expected it to be. Showers moving in later could be interesting though, perhaps a chance of a squall line developing somewhere? And as you pointed out Ian, a low risk of a funnel cloud or tornado.
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Comment number 2.
At 20th Oct 2009, Cliff-T wrote:Also, forgot to mention the windproof brollies. I've seen a few of them tested in hurricane wind machines and vertical wind tunnels, quite a feat of engineering, i have to say. They stood up to the test in wind exceeding 110mph. :D
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Comment number 3.
At 20th Oct 2009, Ian Fergusson ³ÉÈË¿ìÊÖ Weather wrote:Hi Cliff,
Indeed, there has been quite some degree of 'downgrading', shall we say, of the rainband itself through the morning / early afternoon, albeit we've had some flash warnings in places, as you'll know. Gusts seem to have touched around 25-35 kts across our region, so clearly nothing too bothersome, but they've had 40-45 values in Cornwall. Doubtless some awful driving conditions this morning on the A30 up over the likes of Bodmin Moor, I'd imagine.
Aside from following the smaller-scale elements developing across the likes of Cornwall / Devon, the tricky bit comes later today and overnight. There's a chance of seeing the frontal rain retrogressing westwards to a certain (= uncertain!) degree, perhaps bringing a fair amount of rain back into the likes of east Wiltshire while the main focus continues to move eastwards. Either way, it will bring a continuation of wet weather tomorrow in the SE / East Anglia / and especially up into eastern Scotland, where the Met Office already has an advisory issued.
What are your thoughts for Saturday, overnight into Sunday? Both the Met O models and GFS paint a similarly wet and (rather) wild overnight story.... at least according to the latest runs!
Best, Ian
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Comment number 4.
At 20th Oct 2009, Cliff-T wrote:Going by the latest run on the GFS, i suspect you and your team could be issuing a weather watch for Saturday in to Sunday. It does look quite a vigorous LOW with some very strong winds developing. Surely a notch up on what we've had today?
Definitely worth keeping an eye on this one. :-)
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Comment number 5.
At 20th Oct 2009, Ian Fergusson ³ÉÈË¿ìÊÖ Weather wrote:Indeed so Cliff, if the latest runs are to be believed. One to watch, for sure. It's noteworthy how both GFS and the Met Office Global Model suggest a broadly similar evolution and track for the Saturday-Sunday overnight development, with some impressive-looking gradients across a fair swathe of the country, at least if taken on face value. This evening, my Met Office colleague here at ³ÉÈË¿ìÊÖ West, Richard Angwin, suggested possibly 60-70mph gust values in exposure, if the raw evolution painted by the model run today was to be taken as the definitive solution (which of course it's most certainly NOT, let me stress!). But either way, a spell of truly 'blowy' weather looks very likely for the mid-weekend...and I agree with you, it has potential to be more noteworthy than today's little taster!
Incidentally, have you noticed how the period thereafter paints a distinctly mild, indeed warm spell for a fair part of next week (at least on the thermometers - despite the likely inclement conditions)? I'd be willing to wager a zero chance of frost for at least 8 days from now and perhaps (probably?) even longer.
Best, Ian
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Comment number 6.
At 21st Oct 2009, Cliff-T wrote:Temperatures next week look to be rather quite .. well .. warm, don't they?
Quite a large HIGH building, although it's T+44hrs.
It looks like the nice Summer setup on the current runs.
It was the same on the charts a few weeks back and beyond that, if those setups had been back in July and August, we could've seen that BBQ summer! It all seems as though there has been a delay in that department, but as the Sun gets lower in the sky it all becomes a bit late. That's the fun of our weather though. :-)
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