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The stiffening breeze of inflation along the idyllic beaches of the Indian ocean means good news, at least for Scottish dentists.

Lees' Foods' iconic Macaroon bar and Snowball are going up in price, because the cost of the Coatbridge baker's coconut coating has more than doubled in only a few months.

Closer to home for those of us in the ³ÉÈË¿ìÊÖ, Paul Lewis, the voice of ³ÉÈË¿ìÊÖ Radio 4's Money Box, has run his slide rule over the increase in canteen prices at the corporation's Television Centre.

While the increase in VAT would suggest a 2.1% increase, and food price inflation last year ran to 5.5%, the average New Year price increase at the check-out is 12.3%.

Tea's up 25%, and at the bottom end, a café latte or chips cost 7% more.

Contrary pressures

No, please - don't worry about me. Not yet, anyway.

The surge in catering inflation hasn't reached ³ÉÈË¿ìÊÖ Scotland, though I'm told it's only a matter of time. And no, this is not to get your sympathy. I'm not that fond of Lees' Snowballs anyway.

These are examples to illustrate one theme running through a lot of the economic news as we entered the New Year - the upward pressure on prices.

Though the VAT increase is obviously inflationary, and some will use it as cover for other cost pressures, the trends are more global than in the sterling-zone.

There's still a threat of deflation as a result of UK government spending cuts. But the contrary pressures are adding up and pushing strongly in the direction of inflation.

The most obvious sources are in commodity prices.

Brent crude oil reached $96 a barrel earlier this week. Added to the VAT increase and further fuel duty hikes in the pipeline, that affects anything in the economy that relies on transport.

That's pretty much anything that's not digital.

Onionless curries

Cotton prices have been rising steeply, up more than 90% last year, with clothes retailers warning that will be passed on in prices.

Copper rose 33% last year. Floods in Queensland have pushed up the cost of coking coal for steel-making.

Unseasonal weather there and elsewhere, including drought in Argentina, alongside a renewed surge in biofuel demand, is pushing up the price of cereals.

Corn prices rose 52% last year on the Chicago market, and wheat was up 47%.

In the second half of last year, the price of Argentinian soya rose by 55%, driven by a poor harvest and by rising demand in fast-growing economies.

In India, that translates into 18% rise in food prices, which is raising fears it could stall an economy that's seen as a key driver of global recovery.

It may hold off permission for further sugar exports until this season's harvest has become clearer.

For much of the Indian population, this means more than merely an expensive visit to the shops - many spend more than half their household income on food, so this inflation gets them in the stomach, where it hurts.

The lack of onions, a staple for curries, has become a hot political issue, and so serious that India has had to import them from its Pakistani rival.

Even the cost of spices has soared by 30 to 50%. Indian pepper is up 80%. In Indonesia, chilli prices have risen four-fold.

Likewise, in Sri Lanka, the government tried to intervene in the coconut market to keep prices down. It's found that years of low prices have encouraged farmers to shift into rubber production, so last month, it banned the felling of coconut trees without permission.

In Algeria today, there's a police crackdown on riots over the rising cost of sugar, cooking oil and wheat.

In Florida, cold weather has hit the orange crop, so OJ is at its highest price for nearly four years.

Dampening the dragon

On Wednesday, the UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation said its food price index had reached the highest point ever, even beyond the spike in mid 2008.

That was in the months leading up to the financial collapse, when food inflation - driven by bio-fuels and speculation - was perhaps too much of a policy-makers' pre-occupation to see very different pressures building up on Wall Street.

And concern about speculation is back.

The World Development Movement, a political lobby group, warned today about a investors' bubble, claiming $200bn of hot money poured into food-backed assets in the past two and a half years.

And that's just commodity inflation. Growth figures in China risk boosting inflation, unless the Beijing government is successful in dampening the dragon.

And for those watching the US, there's got to be concern about the potential inflationary effect of more quantitative easing, or creating new money, while continuing the splurge of government spending.

That risks undermining other countries' economies by distorting exchange rates and monetary policy.

And there's a risk that the USA succumbs to the temptation to use inflation to get out of its debt and deficit problems. That could easily export it round the world.

Buying Power

The focus for many British people, for now, is on watching, worried, as inflation outstrips earnings.

This week, Income Data Services forecast a second year of pay increases trailing inflation.

Across much of the public sector, a pay freeze means the buying power of salaries is falling faster than the private sector, where increases will average between 2 and 3%. And that's before pension contributions rise.

It's not the most reassuring outlook with which to wish you, belatedly, a good new year.