Savings face a rainy day
Ed Miliband now joins David Cameron and Nick Clegg as a new generation of post-baby-boom leaders.
And while he's watched for tacking to left or not so left, it may be the 40-year old Labour leader's position on age that most dominates his time at the top of the Labour Party.
Theirs is the generation that has to pay a lot of the baby boomers' bills - pensions and healthcare most prominent among them - as they head into retirement.
And they're going to have to find a way of working with the financial sector to do that, as it doesn't look like the state will be able to pick up the tab for a demographic bulge which has grown older with great expectations.
That's why the savings and pensions sector is worth watching closely.
In Edinburgh, Standard Life is working through significant organisational changes, trying to align itself better with customer needs and aiming for a bigger share of a gigantic market.
Lost faith
On Tuesday morning, Aegon issued an update on some big changes the UK arm of this Dutch company is working through at its headquarters in the Scottish capital's Gyle business park.
UK chief executive Otto Thoresen has been to the fore in warning government and the public that there's a crunch coming on savings and pensions if we don't start taking them a bit more seriously.
He was talking about that on Radio Scotland's The Business on Sunday (the podcast is still available).
But it's not just that people haven't been saving enough. It's that they have lost faith in the pensions and savings markets, and often with good reason.
So business is growing at a slowing rate, with margins much less buoyant. And what people do save is going less far.
Equity investments aren't delivering what the actuaries used to think they would, and tax benefits have been sharply eroded.
Standard & Poor took a dim view of Aegon only last week, downgrading the credit rating of its Scottish Equitable incarnation.
Instead of the more common analysts' criticism of a company for failing to control costs, it said the cost controls being undertaken risk undermining "the strength of the franchise".
Sluggish old Europe
Add to that reform of the way pensions are sold - the so-called Retail Distribution Review - which seems likely to have a radical impact on the financial adviser sector from 2012.
It risks focusing attention on those with wealth rather than those who ought to build some up.
Plus there's the European Commission ramping up the capital buffers required of the sector, just as the Basle rules are doing for bankers.
And there's yet another significant element weighing on Aegon UK.
As an international company, most of it having been Scottish Equitable, it has to justify investment from Dutch headquarters.
If you want to look for growth potential in the sector, it's hard not to see Asia as the place to put your guilders.
Sluggish old Europe is a hard sell to finance directors thinking globally.
Not coincidentally, a parallel message was being issued on Monday from Alliance Trust in Dundee, issuing an interesting insight into Katherine Garrett-Cox's investment strategy.
It's leading with a significant shift from European to Asian equities.
For Aegon UK, while raising its profile and reaching out to its target market with a pioneering tennis sponsorship, the implications have meant giving up on "the age of the generalist" and aiming at a much clearer business proposition.
Lump sum confusion
One focus is on "at retirement" benefits for the baby boomers.
They're much less likely to retire suddenly at 65 than was once the case, either choosing or being required to go part-time and reduce their earnings as they age.
They need a bit of advice and steering round the confusing world of annuities and lump sums.
Then there's the pressure to provide a more flexible set of options for those younger than Messrs Cameron, Clegg and Miliband.
So expect less advertising, and more partnership with employers in trying to use payroll contributions to achieve a lot more than pension contribution.
The idea is to get the savings habit started for younger people while they might be unwilling to commit to something as big, long-term and locked-in as a pension.
An ISA account, for instance, isn't a bad place to start.
Less staff
More product simplicity or less? More clarity, says Thoresen.
And a lot less staff. Aegon UK has 4,000 employees, more than half of them in Edinburgh.
The other big centre is in Lytham St Annes, where Guardian Financial Services was based and bought over 11 years ago.
The pain of removing a quarter of Aegon UK's cost base, as announced in June, is still being worked through, and even Standard & Poor doesn't like it much.
As that threatens to add to the numbers of unemployed, that's a good point to remind ourselves that a) a focus by financial advisers on those who already have wealth, and b) a focus by savings and pensions providers on those in the workplace runs the risk of even greater financial exclusion for those with no workplace.
Otto Thoresen led an industry review of financial advice, telling government in 2007 it should share the costs of an independent advice service free at the point of need, or at least inquiry.
It may be neither left nor right, and it looks like no government budget for it, but it may be something for the new generation of political leaders to take on.
Comment number 1.
At 28th Sep 2010, Jim Bly wrote:Your opening paragraph is factually incorrect and shows a misunderstanding of UK demographics. It's actually (and actuarily) very worrying, because you're talking about pensions and companies like Standard Life who are a big pension provider, but you've got the basic facts wrong.
The baby boom in the USA was 10-15 years ahead of the UK. The big years for population growth (ie births) in the USA was the 1950s. In the UK it was the mid-1960s to early 1970s.
The largest cohort of population in the UK is in the 38-48 age group. This is our 'baby boom' and Mr Miliband is right in the heart of it. The 50-something group is considerably smaller.
It's not 40-50s having to pick up the bills for the 50-60s that is the big worry for the UK. It's when the current 40-50s begin retiring that the UK will really struggle, because the number of 30-40s behind is considerably smaller. House prices could also be affected, so that's another thing for people to be aware of.
This is a very important subject so please get the facts straight. People expect the ³ÉÈË¿ìÊÖ to be correct about things like this and the opnions you expect have an affect on public opinion and policy.
I hope for the sake of my own pension that Standard Life have a better grasp of the situation.
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Comment number 2.
At 4th Oct 2010, Sutara wrote:Sadly, it seems that ordinary people (i.e. the non-wealthy) and those who are not in work (for whatever reason) are increasingly going to be ignored / left behind by a financial services industry whose focus is boom, profit, and quick-buck bonus rewards. The leaders of the industry will argue, rightly enough, that they are in business to make a profit and that they are not social charities with resources to offer free advice to the general public. Equally they will argue that social security is the responsiblity of the government, not them.
All of that, I suppose, is fair enough, but actually in just what direction does it leave our society going? Will we find more and more people on 'skid row' or in the gutter? Will we have more civil unrest, triggered by unbearable poverty?
Will we see some modern-day Mother Teresa walking our streets tending to our poor, who have been left behind by the changes in our economy triggered by our financial industries' excesses?
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