Latin class for Scotch
The big distillers have good reason to need a dram if they're to steady their nerves. The recent half year figures for Diageo and Pernod Ricard had some unpleasant effects from recession.
If we didn't already know that drinkers have been staying out of pubs, and trading down to cheaper brands, then we could guess. With the two biggest spirits players issuing their first half results for 2009-10, now we've got lots of evidence.
The French company's Chivas brand saw a 13% fall in volume worldwide, while it was 5% down on sales. Sales in North America faced "persistent difficulties". The decline wasn't much better for Ballantine's, with its deluxe brand sales down 22% (notably in China) while The Glenlivet nearly held its own.
Irish whiskey fared much better. Jameson's was Pernod Ricard's premium brand that grew most strongly, its sales up 7%.
Ironically, while Guinness was the star performer in the Diageo stable of brands, the Irish market is one of the grimmest for the trade, down by more than 10% in a year.
Chairman Patrick Ricard was upbeat about the start of this year (the start of his second half). Comparing the back end of 2009 with the second half of 2008 includes three months in the earlier year before the bank crisis stopped consumer confidence dead.
Large-package stores
Diageo, as the dominant player in Scotch whisky, is reporting with the same factor in mind. But chief executive Paul Walsh was more downbeat about prospects.
His figures are held back by the after-effects of the sharp de-stocking of whisky that took place around the world last year.
But it's clear that it has had to reverse its strategy for boosting price and premium on its global Scotch whisky brands, notably Johnnie Walker. It has had to use price to fight over market share.
In North America, it's seen net sales down 6% and volume down 4%, Canada a bit more sharply than the US. Diageo notes that customer off sales have been moving to large-package and discount retail stores.
Very difficult trading
European sales were down 5% and volume down 2%. Spain, which has been a source of rapid growth, is now in rapid decline - with people moving out of bars and clubs to drink at home, sales were down by 11% on the first half of last financial year.
Developing markets, such as Russia, continued to face "very difficult trading conditions".
Across Europe, Johnnie Walker was down 10% by volume and 12% on net sales. J&B did even worse.
Style bars of Caracas
But being a global company (with reports that Diageo could move its headquarters and tax base out of London), this set of figures underlines the extent to which whisky's future lies further afield.
India has long been seen as a strong prospect, if only its tariff barriers could be removed. But even the share Diageo has on the sub-continent is not going well. It has had problems with its team in India, with a large over-shipment followed by a clear-out of the management team. Volumes were down 42%.
While China still beckons, though doesn't deliver much in these most recent figures, the area to watch for the future of Scotch is the burgeoning middle class in Latin America. Scotch whisky sales have grown in the key markets there by more than 50% over the past five years.
In Venezuela, there was an economic downturn and inflation eroding income, but it seems that message didn't reach the style bars of Caracas.
Using price increases per dram, Diageo offset double digit declines in volume with double digit increases in net sales on some locally popular Scotch brands; Old Parr, Buchanan's and Chequers. Johnnie Walker Red and Black Labels saw volume up slightly as well as double digit sales growth.
Recife dram
Not all Latin American markets are booming. But in Brazil, the volume of Scotch sales was up 14% in Diageo's half-yearly results.
It is reported that Recife, on the Brazilian coast, has the highest per capita consumption of Scotch whisky of any city in the world.
And if that claim should need further investigation to establish its veracity, I'm sure a journalist can be found to put himself forward. Selflessly.
Comment number 1.
At 21st Feb 2010, dennisjunior1 wrote:Douglas:
Thanks, for giving us the bloggers a lesson about Scotch...With all great information that you are reported about.
(D)
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Comment number 2.
At 22nd Feb 2010, redrobb wrote:All smoke & mirrors, not by accident this industry is founded upon myth & folklore...
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Comment number 3.
At 22nd Feb 2010, Neal C wrote:"It is reported that Recife, on the Brazilian coast, has the highest per capita consumption of Scotch whisky of any city in the world.
And if that claim should need further investigation to establish its veracity, I'm sure a journalist can be found to put himself forward. Selflessly."
Yeah, I'm sure you can. Scotland. Booze. Culture.
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