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What will the finance sector look like in 20 years? It's a question being asked by a survey of sentiment now marking its 20th birthday.

The 20/20 vision has seen 20 leading figures (can you see a theme
here?) mark the second decade of the CBI/Pricewaterhouse Coopers Financial Services Survey.

The answers are compiled from some of those who may have lost public trust, so these opinions could merely serve to invite a barrage of abuse. But for all the mistakes and greed which brought the financial sector so low, they still know their business and they're some smart people.

So give them a hearing, but don't give yourself any prizes for guessing the top findings:

- Too much regulation is bad, and the financial crisis has given regulators an opportunity to boost their interference.

- Any kind of regulation from Brussels seems to be bad, and intended to do down the City of London.

- Asia is the Next Big Thing, and China in particular. Chinese banks are going to edge into the world top 10.

- UK banking could see the emergence of new competitors such as Virgin and Tesco. And it's going to be less exciting and profitable.

- Financial innovation will have to prove its worth, and will have to meet customer scepticism about products they don't understand.
Transparency will be valued.

- London will continue to be important as a financial centre, not least in asset management, so long as regulation and tax doesn't scare away activity to Switzerland, Ireland or further afield. No other part of the UK gets a mention. No great surprise there either.

Unexpected

And what bits of the survey catch the eye as, well, a bit out of the ordinary? Here are four:

One: Graham Beale, chief executive of Nationwide Building Society, says there's an appetite from the tripartite regulators (Financial Services Authority, Bank of England and HM Treasury) to boost the mutual sector with one or two more "big-ticket" players to sit alongside his own Swindon-based giant.

He says it's early days so far, but the model being considered is in the Netherlands, where Rabobank is a collective of around 150 institutions. "We're at the very early stage of exploring opportunities in the UK to mirror such arrangements," he told the CBI/PwC surveyors.

There may be the start of something bigger form the merger of the Co-operative Bank and Britannia Building Society, says Mr Beale. The same could come from Yorkshire and Chelsea getting spliced.

Bigger banks

Two: So you think banks are too big? Think again. John Varley, chief executive of Barclays, sees consolidation in his crystal ball. It is fragmented at present, he said, with the top 20 banks having a market share of around 25% - far lower than in industries such as pharmaceuticals. (Do we want our banks to be like Big Pharma? Not me.)

The Barclays boss's argument goes that customers around the world have similar requirements in wholesale banking, and it's going that way in retail too. But he adds, with some humility, that banks will have to get better at explaining themselves and their usefulness: "From the point of view of some stakeholders [I think he means 'most of the public'] banking looks powerful, amorphous and self-serving.

"The reality is that what banks do is important to the economy and to society, but the banks need to do a better job of making that case."

Hedges grow higher

Three: Casino banking for the masses. The least socially useful bit of finance is arguably the hedge fund sector, driving the derivatives market, leveraged to the hilt to deliver astonishing returns on investment.

As with private equity firms, they're not noted for being much bothered about who or what gets trampled in the process. And as banks are pushed into reducing their exposure from the risks of proprietary trading, there will be opportunities for this less regulated, higher risk sector to take over business from the mainstream.

One of the contributors to this survey is one Peter Clarke, chief executive of Man Group plc, which includes hedge fund activities while, unusually, listed on the London Stock Exchange. He wants to make it easier for retail investors to protect themselves against the volatility of the stock market: "Hedge funds should be for everyone.
Hedge funds are seen as high risk, but there is almost no strategy with a higher risk than equities long only."

Pension timebomb

Four: Problems with pensions will dog corporate and personal finances for 20 years unless there's a change of direction at several levels.
The new boss of Edinburgh's Standard Life, David Nish, foresees consolidation in different aspects of life insurance, while Tim Breedon, of Legal and General, sees an opportunity in removing pension risk from company balance sheets.

It's Maggie Craig, of the Association of British Insurers, who gives us healthy food for healthy financial thought, with her critique of Whitehall's pension reforms, kicking in from 2012: "The problem is that the Government is setting no targets for pension savings. We have targets for eating five portions of fruit and veg a day and on alcohol consumption, but no-one says how much people should be saving and what they need to save."