Banks: with you all the way?
The Ledger's previous outburst of sunny optimism didn't last long.
Crowding on to the economic weather map is evidence that there are plenty of storms ahead on the economic front.
The obvious element this week was the anaemic nature of the recovery, as measured by the UK's figures on gross domestic product.
The 0.1% figure was only pushed over the zero mark by short-term elements such as the VAT cut, which was coming to an end in the last quarter, and the car scrappage scheme, which ends a month from now.
And to underline the extent to which Britain's recovery is lagging, the US has figures out today which are startling in how positive it suddenly looks.
At a 5.7% annualised growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2009, that's the fastest rate of growth in six years.
Yes, it may have some illusory elements, but note that confidence is driving a return to business investment.
Amazon boost
Compare that with the latest release from PricewaterhouseCoopers.
It has taken the temperature from its consultants around the UK, and the results looks distinctly chilly.
From Scotland, the "regional trends" report (I'll leave others to make the obvious comment about regions and nations) shows a particular concern about the impact of the public sector.
On one hand, all the effort made over the past year, in quantitative easing and in cutting VAT, has not appeared to have much effect.
On the other hand, the looming withdrawal of public spending is harming the confidence of Scottish business about its future prospects.
From England, the more frequent complaint from business is that government is too big and a rise in taxes is bad for business.
There's a telling observation from the north of England on the state of the high street - that previous recessions have seen vacant shops fill up again, but that was before supermarkets moved beyond food sales and before the internet's challenge.
On the latter count, note the Amazon figures released last night: turnover up 42% in the fourth quarter of last year, compared with the same Christmas sales period the previous year, with profits up 71%. On Christmas Day, for the first time, it saw more sales of e-books than of the printed variety.
Lending still squeezed
Some comments from the administrators of a now defunct Scottish company specialising in the removal of asbestos are worth noting too: Whiteinch Asbestos of Bishopbriggs couldn't compete with its rivals' quotes for tendered contracts.
According to Bryan Jackson of PKF: "The directors felt that they could not compete with contractors who, they believe, are operating at a loss simply to gain work so they decided to close the business."
And he warned there will be more to follow.
Returning to the PwC report, it's nothing new to find client companies complaining about bank lending.
But from what I hear from other business advisers, with a knowledge across a broad sweep of the Scottish economy, that remains a big and real worry.
If the banks don't relax their lending, the next phase of recovery is going to see more companies going under.
Indeed, they would expect that at this stage of a recession anyway, and they fear the banks' special problems are going to make that worse this time.
Go hang
The way it has tended to work is that during the worst of a recession, lenders keep companies afloat while the asset value remains submerged.
But when asset values begin to rise past the exposure levels of the banks, that's when the companies are at risk of the lenders' plug being pulled: the banks get their money out, and the business and other creditors can go hang.
If that's where we're heading, it could meet resistance from the dominant shareholder of both the Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds Banking Group - which is, of course, the UK Government.
That could be one of the next tests of the relationship between commercial banks and their political masters.
The Bank of Scotland, meanwhile, has said today it's "refreshing" its branding, and cutting the Scottish high street presence for the Halifax brand.
This may produce a few splutters of indignation from customers, and looks ripe for satire, but the new advertising slogan is to be "With you all the way".
The idea is that it will stress the return to traditional relationship banking and empathy with customers.
The makeover of logo, with branches also to be refurbished on a rolling programme, has been done by London agencies, with the contracts for Edinburgh advertising agencies at an end - a sign of the times when headquarters move away.
Hullo, I'm Douglas Fraser, and I'm business and economy editor at ³ÉÈË¿ìÊÖ Scotland. Welcome to my blog, where you can read my take on money matters, viewed from a Scottish perspective.
Comment number 1.
At 30th Jan 2010, Sutara wrote:Your comments really are just a sign of the times and indicative of how so many people in both public and private organisations are just keeping their heads 'below the turrets' to avoid any direct criticism from bosses or political leaders.
In my view the prime example was the police officer(s) who issued a penalty notice to the chap who had stopped his van in traffic, put it into neutral and applied the handbrake, and the blew his nose on a tissue and moved off as the traffic moved off.
Do they realy not realise when they do such reprehensibly stupid things that they bring not just themselves, but ALL police officers, into disrepute? Are we now going to witness the national mass criminalisation of nose-blowers?
No doubt they will argue that the rule book says that nicking someone in such situations is right. But as these are officers paid out of the public purse surely we're entitled to expect them to use some degree of basic common sense?
And THAT'S the real problem. In tough economic times people stop using common sense, personal responsiblity, wisdom or judgement and just go, 'yes, sir' 'no, sir' 'three bags full, sir' because they don't want to rock any boats.
Even when 'sir' is about to put his size tens right in it.
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