Still in reverse gear
Ouch. So the recession goes on, longer than the forecasting pundits had reckoned. Gross domestic product was always likely to fall around the standstill position, with the forecasting tending towards the upside and a return to growth.
No-one wielding the economists' slide-rule had reckoned on a 0.4% drop in the third quarter - July to September - but that's what we got. And while it's a move in the right direction, that's only a slight improvement on 0.6% in April to June.
You'd be forgiven for being slightly confused with the position in Scotland, where it was reported on Wednesday that Scottish GDP had fallen by 0.8%.
To help clear up that confusion, it's probably worth noting that that Scottish figure was for the second quarter, April to June, whereas the latest UK figure was for July to September.
The Scottish Government takes longer than the UK Office for National Statistics to compile figures and extrapolate the Scottish bits of the UK data. That makes its publication almost exactly three months behind the UK figures.
If we follow through on the growth path from the second quarter, which showed the return of Scottish economic activity lagging behind that of the UK, we could assume the Scottish economy declined by around 0.5% last quarter.
Hullo, I'm Douglas Fraser, and I'm business and economy editor at ³ÉÈË¿ìÊÖ Scotland. Welcome to my blog, where you can read my take on money matters, viewed from a Scottish perspective.
Comment number 1.
At 23rd Oct 2009, Wee-Scamp wrote:I really wonder how long it will take for the people of Scotland to realise that if we don't take control of our own economy as quickly as possible then the Treasury and the City will drag us down so low that it will be almost impossible to recover.
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Comment number 2.
At 23rd Oct 2009, kaybraes wrote:How can Scotland control it's own economy, we don't have a currency. Will we use the Euro and let Brussels call the shots ? Use the pound sterling and let the bank of England call the shots, or create a Scottish pound which will probably be discounted against the pound sterling or not accepted outside Scotland ? Maybe we could go back to the gold sovereign or even the groat . The whole thing is academic , we cannot survive as a nation without the rest of the United Kingdom , which already owns most of Scotland anyway , however much we desire it, sentiment does not put food on the table, so better to get 30 SNP MPs into westminster to give Scotland an effective voice.
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Comment number 3.
At 23rd Oct 2009, Wee-Scamp wrote:#2
I don't intend to argue with you about the surviving without the rest of the UK. I will just point you at Norway and ask you to exercise a little intuition.
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Comment number 4.
At 23rd Oct 2009, oldnat wrote:Douglas
"The Scottish Government takes longer than the UK Office for National Statistics to compile figures and extrapolate the Scottish bits of the UK data."
Isn't this a little bit naughty? Extrapolating "the Scottish bits" from the inadequate UK data causes much of the difficulty.
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Comment number 5.
At 23rd Oct 2009, oldnat wrote:2. kaybraes
My Dutch relatives would contest that the Netherlands doesn't control it's own economy. They recognise their inter-relationship with a much wider economy and the need to accept some restrictions for that wider relationship. But they have independence that Scots don't have.
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