Masala dose for food prices
The devastation of an earthquake and typhoons in east Asia have reached the epic proportions where a disaster emergency fund-raising drive is being co-ordinated by the main British development charities.
But there is more going on in Asia that looks set to require us to dig deeper than just loose change for charity.
India is also facing a natural disaster. More than 250 people have died in flooding in the southern Indian states of Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh, and another 2.5 million have been forced from their homes.
It can be hard to grasp that scale, and fits with the foreigners' view of India that its monsoons always bring disaster and suffering in at least one region.
More significant for the world economy and trade is that until last week's floods hit what crops there were, the monsoon had previously been the weakest for 37 years.
During those years, the country has been slow to build up its resilience to poor rainfall. About 60% of its agricultural land is not irrigated. A country with more than 200 million farmers faces a big challenge.
The poor monsoon means this emerging economic giant is being walloped by rapidly rising food prices.
The most recent inflation figures show vegetable prices up 50%, potatoes up 81%, sugar up 44% and rice up 19%, with food prices more broadly up 16% on last year. The Delhi government is taking action to pull back on grain exports, which are important to neighbouring countries' supplies.
The most immediate impact is on the hundreds of millions of Indians who were already struggling to earn enough to feed themselves.
Since the 1960s, India has moved beyond the fear of widespread famine, but instead it handles food shortages with widespread malnourishment.
With East Africa also experiencing severe food shortages and the threat of famine, it's hard to see how this won't push up food prices internationally.
British spending on food has remained buoyant through the recession, as last year's food price inflation has fed through.
Tesco's interim results, out this morning, show that inflationary pressure eased off earlier this year, feeding into reduced supermarket takings.
But don't be surprised if global food supply problems meet increased demand, as economies move from recession to recovery and return us to accelerating food price inflation - and a shopping basket near you.
Comment number 1.
At 7th Oct 2009, spinspamspun wrote:Loose change for charity.
ALWAYS
loose change,more is needed.
Let the obscene TESCO and the rest,
lead by example !!!
Complain about this comment (Comment number 1)