Through a glass, darkly
Expect a whisky summit. In the wake of a jobs loss announcement from Whyte and MacKay, the GMB's Harry Donaldson suggested it, and Enterprise Minister Jim Mather seems to be up for some spirited mind-mapping on spirits.
The criticism from Whyte and MacKay of the UK's tax regime will find an echo round such a table - unless, of course, it includes the UK Government, as Mr Donaldson suggests.
Chief executive John Beard reckons 2008 tax on a bottle of whisky rose 13%, including the increase that compensated for the VAT cut in November. He describes that as "punitive".
So what does he think of the Scottish government's plans to put a minimum price on a unit of alcohol? He doesn't think it will have the desired effect on irresponsible boozing, but he is emphatically not linking that with the decision to cut 100 jobs, 85 of them in Scotland, from a total payroll of 574.
While neither the Whyte and MacKay announcement nor the Diageo job cuts is about moving bottling overseas, that's where the trade union fears lie. Already 15% of Scotch whisky is exported in bulk. And the union wants a legal requirement placed on all blends that they should not only be distilled and matured in Scotland, as at present, but also bottled here as well.
In international trade agreement terms, it would be hard, if not impossible, to justify that clawback of current export activity, though it should be possible for single malts - a small part of the market, which is likely soon to get that legal protection for its bottling.
At Glasgow headquarters of Whyte and MacKay, a kenspeckle modern building near Charing Cross and next to the M8, staff were said to be "devastated" by the news that the company is to follow Diageo into a corporate fitness regime. But it can't be a huge surprise, with its parent company in trouble.
Vijay Mallya, the boss at United Spirits who is big in Indian Kingfisher beer, whisky, airlines, politics and flamboyant bling, has amassed quite a rupee mountain of corporate debt, and he's been trying to offload a minority share of Whyte and MacKay since last year.
No luck with that yet, but Mr Beard commented: "It's common knowledge that we're looking at our debt ratio. We've been talking to a number of partners as we have been for several months.
"It's in the process as we speak. But to be clear, this decision was not driven by any need to de-leverage."
He's certain the company is not up for sale, so is it half up for sale?
"We're looking at various routes, and it's encouraging the number of people who have come forward to divest in a minority share."
Diageo has been the player most closely linked with buying a 49% share - or more. But it's reckoned it may be holding out while Mallya's problems mount up, and the price falls. The Indian paid a collosal £595 million for it, and analysts reckon he'd be lucky to get £350 million for the whole thing now.
In any case, Diageo has bigger plans to get into the Indian market. If the experience of its Guinness brand in Africa is any guide, there ought to be a whole lot of business for the black stuff on the sub-continent.
Whyte and MacKay is an unusual player in Scotch. Less than quarter of its product is in its own leading brands, notably Whyte and MacKay itself, plus Jura and Dalmore single malts. The rest is made up of supermarket own brands, some contract bottling for smaller operators and some development brands, such as Snow Leopard and Pinkie vodkas.
It's also unusually exposed to the British market, with 60% of output reaching UK taste buds. And that's not much of a growth market, compared with southern Europe and Indian, Russian and Chinese markets, where John Beard foresees Scotch gaining substantial ground over the next 10-plus years.
Meanwhile, it's worth noting the sharply different tone in response from the Scottish Government about the Whyte and MacKay announcement, as if it wanted to go out of its way not to make any link with Diageo's plan to pull out of Kilmarnock.
It's hard to imagine a more sympathetic announcement about job cuts - reflecting, it seems, the company's choice, in contrast with Diageo, of telling the politicians and government agencies before the workforce.
Comment number 1.
At 4th Aug 2009, dennisjunior1 wrote:Douglas Fraser:
So what does he think of the Scottish government's plans to put a minimum price on a unit of alcohol?
I think that the idea of imposing the TARIFF against the unit of alcohol...Will not have the desire affect to what the (author) of report wants to see...
~Dennis Junior~
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Comment number 2.
At 4th Aug 2009, Wee-Scamp wrote:If Scotland was an independent country we could simply take these companies into national ownership.
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Comment number 3.
At 4th Aug 2009, corporationtax wrote:Hopefully Wee-Scamp won't be too close to the power base of an independent Scotland. No, we won't be nationalising second rate supermarket suppliers, or banks, or bust building societies, or rail companies, or newspaper groups or anything. We'll be investing in the global industries of tomorrow.
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Comment number 4.
At 5th Aug 2009, kaybraes wrote:It's a great idea to penalise the home consumed whisky market it costs the country dear in social problems and pricing it out of the market is the only cure.This should be done in the form of extra tax on the producer on anything sold at home. The revenue raised can be used to subsidise increased exports, this will give the drinks giants an incentive to export their product rather than profitting by adding to the social problems that already blight our country.
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