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The decision about the , the only man convicted of the Lockerbie bombing, requires a balance of justice with compassion.

But of course, there's a bit more to it than that.

The Libyans have made no secret that such a release or transfer would help to normalise its place in international relations.

It has already taken itself out of the rogue states category, renouncing any nuclear weapons ambition and distancing itself from sponsorship or support of terrorist groups.

Without sanctions since the process started 10 years ago, it's also talking business.

There can be few economies so dependent on one product, with 95% of export earnings from petroleum products.

Before that was discovered under the desert, this was one of the world's poorest nations.

Russan dependency

And there's lots more where that oil and gas came from.

Gas supplies are seen as an important alternative source for Europe, piped through Italy and in liquid form by ship, to avoid over-dependency on Russia.

But there are concerns Moscow is cosying up to the Tripoli government with transfer of weapons technology, as a means to exert more influence over the North African state than Europe and the US.

That's what took Prime Minister Vladimir Putin to Libya last year.

In Tripoli, economic reform includes a slow reduction of subsidies and a form of socialist privatisation - handing assets over to workers and the public.

There is also a recognition that the current lack of diversification in the Libyan economy means it must look to the post-oil era. There's only so much of a future in selling dates.

Its plans include the growth of tourism and the managing of its oil wealth.

Financial services

The tourism appeal, learning from neighbouring Tunisia's success, includes long beaches and impressive antiquities along the coastline.

The management of oil wealth is one of the bigger parts of Britain's current exports to Libya, providing financial services.

Tripoli is also on the lookout for investment opportunities. Britain's second biggest oil refinery, Stanlow in Cheshire, currently owned by Royal Dutch Shell, is reported to be an asset for which the Libyan National Oil Company is jointly bidding.

Of course, the business opportunities in the other direction are a key part of British and other nations' thinking, with £280m in exports last year.

France and Italy are other trading partners to watch.

Libya's not got a reputation as being an easy place to operate, but there are opportunities in financial services, construction, education and healthcare.

The big prospect is in selling oil and gas know-how to an industry with badly constrained infrastructure.

Meeting potential

BP, Shell and BG Group are already in co-operation deals with Libya's national oil and gas company. BP is the biggest British player by far, with an agreement signed two years ago to explore in the west of the country and offshore.

The deal was to invest $900m, under contract to the Libyan National Oil Company, though the oil major expects to sink as much as $1.2bn in the exploration.

If the fields prove to have the potential expected, it could mean a $20bn spend over the next decade.

BG has been in longer, but unsuccessful in the fields where it drilled, so Libya is not seen as one of its priorities now.

Shell signed a deal in 2005 to upgrade an LNG plant, with exploration for gas leading to the first drilling last year.

While there's little that's clear about the decision on the Lockerbie bomber, the speculation extends to rumour that the departure of Megrahi from Greenock prison will open the door to a whole lot more deal-making with the Libyan government.

Shell won't comment on its future plans, and BP's spokeswoman claims the current contract will keep it busy enough for now.

But one sector where the British are already making a significant impact is in the rodent sector.

It may not help the tourism pitch to hear reports of a recent outbreak of bubonic plague in a village near Tobruk, but one result is that British firm Rentokil Initial has found a handy line of business in catching Libya's numerous desert rats.

Update:1850 BST

There's a firm denial from the Foreign Office this evening that any trade deals are dependent on the release of the Lockerbie bomber.

The link between diplomacy and trade is subtler than that.

But there's more information come to light about the extent of the Libyan trade potential. And in updating my previous blog, I now learn that the £280m British export figure for last year only covers visibles. Invisible exports - that's services, and primarily in the finance sector - amount to another £244m.

Imports from Libya to Britain totalled £960m last year, up 66% on 2007.

So far this year, official figures show visible exports to Libya are up 49% on the same period in 2008.

Libya's petroleum sector has a long way to grow. Oil production is currently flowing at 1.7 million barrels per day. That makes this Africa's second largest oil producer, and the largest single exporter to Europe.

Only 25% of Libya's vast surface area has been explored for oil so far. It already has the largest proven oil reserves in Africa, at 42 billion barrels of oil and more than 1.3 trillion cubic metres of gas. "There is every chance that actual reserves are twice as big," according to an official source.

There are over 50 international oil companies already engaged, and Libyan investment plans in exploration and development total $42bn in the next five years.

And where does the oil income leave Libya's foreign currency reserves? With $136bn swilling around, looking for places to invest. The central bank holds around half of that, and the other half is with the Libyan Investment Authority. Handling its wealth is seeing more interest in partnership with foreign banks, which explains why HSBC is one of the British companies already working in Tripoli.

Not much sign of the Royal Bank of Scotland opening a Benghazi branch just yet. But Britain's exports do extend to high street fashion and bling. Not only Bhs and Marks & Spencer have a presence in the country. So too does Monsoon Accessorize.