³ÉÈË¿ìÊÖ

Scotland's population problems look like they're set to return.

There was a long term decline, established over the past half century, which might have taken the nation below the five million mark by this year, with a growing imbalance between working age, tax-paying people and those who depend on their taxes.

But an upturn in the birthrate and in net inward migration (more people coming in than going out) has helped turn that around, over the past five years.

It may be that people have listened to politicians' concerns, and started having more babies.

But it seems more likely the improvements in population trends come from an influx of young migrants from the A8, ex-Communist nations that joined the EU in 2004, the largest of which was Poland.

But there have been significant returns. Unlike old-style emigration, when the ship back from Australia was a significant cost, Poles can get on a Ryanair flight for less than a day's wages, and be back with their families by lunchtime.

Anecdotal evidence from talking to those who know Scotland's Polish community well indicates that around a third have settled in Scotland, a third have gone home, and a third are reviewing their future in light of the recession.

Going back to Poland provides more of the social support that makes it easier to ride out the recession and unemployment.

And it's possible these recent migrants are moving away from hostility to migrants in Britain, as witnessed by the vote for the pro-repatriation British National Party last week, and the UK Independence Party, which argues for a block on continued migration and an end to free-flowing European labour movement.

That Scottish immigration upturn might explain why we haven't heard so much from the Scottish Government about that population challenge.

On Newsnight Scotland last night, Jack McConnell, the former Labour First Minister who built a cross-party consensus in favour of more immigration, challenged his successor to keep the pressure on.

And Mike Russell, the Scottish Government's international relations minister, took up the challenge, saying the SNP administration remains committed to the cause, and would like to get away from the constraints of the UK immigration which, he said, is driven by the demands and strains in the south-east of England.

According to the minutes of the SNP Government's Council of Economic Advisers, ministers are being warned they have a tough task if they are to hit their target of matching the average population growth for western Europe over the next ten years.

Even with the Polish boost, Scotland has had around 13,000 added to its population in recent years, while it will need around 24,000. And if the Polish migration is going into reverse, that target is getting more distant.

It shouldn't be a surprise, according to Professor Robert Wright, a demographic expert at Strathclyde University.

The Poles, and other central Europeans, were typically over-qualified for the jobs they've been doing, and it was unlikely they'd want to stay in Scotland (or England, or even more conspicuously, Ireland, where they had the biggest impact of anywhere in Europe).

Poles find their home country's economy is coping with the economic downturn relatively well, though that certainly can't be said of Latvia.

And the fall in the value of sterling over the past year has made Britain less attractive, particularly for those who send part of their wages back home.

The global nature of the downturn has one positive effect on the population challenge: it used to be that recessions meant Scots left for opportunities elsewhere, but that's not obviously the case now, when there are so few attractive opportunities elsewhere.

But according to Professor Wright, Scotland does have a very high level of graduate emigration, at around 12% of Scottish-domiciled students leaving.

They take with them skills, attained at high cost to government budgets, and the nation's best prospects.

Will these emigrant Scots come back with the encouragement of the ³ÉÈË¿ìÊÖcoming Scotland programme? Robert Wright doubts that very much.

Those who move back to Scotland are much more likely to do so because of family ties that bring them back. It is rarely down to work opportunities or an appeal to patriotism.

That's where the migration policy from Holyrood may require much tougher messages about the kind of people being attracted to Scotland being, looking and sounding different from the majority.

The sensitivity to immigration across Europe has led to Germany and Austria continuing to block labour migrants from the A8 nations, even though that risks breaking EU law if it is continued.

Britain's block on Bulgarian and Romanian migrants, which has to be lifted by law within the next four years, has seen most migrants from those countries going to Spain and Portugal.

And is there any evidence from these movements to back up the case made by immigration's opponents that migrants "take our jobs"?

The Institute for the Study of Labour, based in Bonn, has taken a close look at the evidence.

It concluded there is no evidence that the new European citizens would, on aggregate, displace native workers or lower their wages, or that they would be more dependent on welfare.

One of its detailed research programmes has reckoned that the impact of EU migration from east to west boosts national income by 0.2%, or around 24bn euros across the continent.

Labour market effects are surprisingly small, it concludes. In the short run, wages decrease about 0.1% in western Europe and the unemployment rate may rise by about 0.1%.

Among the new EU member states, from which these migrants have been leaving, wages may increase 0.3% while unemployment rates declines by 0.4%.

In the long run, the impact is reckoned to be neutral.

The academic study concludes that the brain drain out of central Europe into the west may be a concern for those countries, but that "the brain circulation between EU member states may in fact help to solve their demographic and economic problems... Free migration is a solution rather than a foe for labour market woes and cash-strapped social security systems in the European Union".