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Trading into Trouble

Douglas Fraser | 10:42 UK time, Friday, 29 May 2009

The talk is not of green shoots, but of bright spots.

That is, there's no pattern pointing to recovery for the Scottish economy, but some things are going right, despite everything else.

Renewable energy, for instance. And fund management, as it looks for new markets in China. And, er, that's about it.

The rest of the analysis of by Dr Andrew Goudie, chief economic adviser at the Scottish Government, ranges between uncertain, bumpy and a bit bleak.

He recognises the signs that the rate of decline may be slowing, but seems to be cautious about embracing the evidence with any enthusiasm.


What the report proves beyond doubt (in case any lingered) is that Scotland is far from being insulated from recession.

It may not be as dependent on manufacturing exports as England's Midlands, or Germany or Japan, but Scotland's is an open economy, depending on trade.

And as an unusually strong characteristic of this recession is its global nature, it is trade that has been hardest hit, and therefore those who have most successfully depended on trade.

Has Scotland been protected by its larger public sector?

There's mixed evidence there.

Decline in output has so far tracked that of the UK, and looks set to continue doing so.

Meanwhile, the employment picture is mixed.

Whereas a relatively high proportion of women have been in Scotland's workforce in recent years, giving the country a high level of employment, there is evidence from the start of the recession that around 20,000 of those women stopped working and stopped being available for work.

That's a more significant retreat from the workforce than most parts of Britain.

But looking at the unemployment figures, which understandably get more attention, Scotland is faring relatively well, with the rate lower than the average and the rate of increase the lowest of any part of the country.

Has Scotland been protected by having less of a property bubble?

In relative terms, that looks like the clearest difference.

There's evidence from this report that the excesses of south-east England left Scotland less vulnerable.

Measuring the bubble by the ratio of house prices to earnings, Scotland had less far to fall.

The UK figure hit 5.8 times earnings at its peak nearly two years ago, while Scotland reaches 4.7 times earnings.

The Scottish level of house prices is now reckoned to be around 3.7 times earnings, and that is close to the trend level for the past 25 years.

What that could mean is that the house price floor could be getting close - but it depends on access to mortgages, and on buyer confidence levels at a time when unemployment is on the way up.

Comments

  • Comment number 1.

    Lets see if this makes sense;

    David Cameron, Gordon Brown and Nick Clegg are focused on reforming the parliemantary allowance system;

    Meanwhile



    Shutting down 19 Customs and Tax offices in Scotland.... Erm... can anyone else see a golden opportunity to bring Parliamentary Allowances under the scrutiny of the Inland Revenue? Presumabley these jobs were going because there were no demand?

    Pleanty of demand for it now I would say.

  • Comment number 2.

    With resent reports suggesting that the overall General Population of Scotland is falling in real-terms Year on Year, then with a Country of LESS People then why do we needs More Job's.

    Also, with more Students expecting to seek further Education abroad over the next few Years due to the Recession, then where are the needs for Growth in House Building, and Manufacturing more generally?

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