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Scottish public spending could be forced into unprecedented cuts of one pound in every eight currently being spent, according to the latest independent projections published this morning.

Economists at Glasgow and Strathclyde Universities have run a rule over the numbers in last week's Westminster budget, and arrived at some alarming findings.

They did the same after Alistair Darling's Pre-Budget Statement in November, and concluded there was going to be a squeeze.

But as a result of the Chancellor's latest forecasts - which are seen by most as unduly optimistic - it seems the bad scenario from November has become the good scenario now.

The Centre for Public Policy for Regions has repeated its analysis of three possible/likely outcomes based on Treasury and independent Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS) figures.

The good news - let's get it out the way, because it doesn't last long - is that low inflation may not make things quite as tight next year. And this year is, by the way, as good as it's going to get, public-spending-wise, at least.

The bad news is that the best outcome would cut public spending by 2.4% in 2011-12, then by 1.4% and by 2.1%.

That assumes a bias in Whitehall spending towards departments that have their roles devolved, meaning less impact on Holyrood's block grant.

The worse projection would have real terms funding cuts of 1.3% from spring of 2011, followed by 1.8% and 2.5%.

That assumes Scotland goes with the UK average reckoned by the IFS on last week's Budget figures.

The worst of the three scenarios has public funding down by 1.7%, 2.7% and 2.8% in consecutive years.

This goes with the IFS assumptions about Scottish spending, and sees falls in cash as well as real terms.

In real terms, that final accounting would require cuts of £1.7 billion, followed by £2.7 billion, and then £3.8 billion, from a budget of just over £30 billion now. That would hurt.

And it dwarfs the row at present over whether £500 million is being taken out of next year's budget (the SNP/Scottish Government view), or less than £400m (Labour/UK Government).

The row there is about when the cuts kick in - while still struggling back into growth or delaying it a bit.

Today's figure look beyond that, to a time when Britain and Scotland should be out of recession and paying off the bills.

There's worse. The Glasgow economists point to the horizon beyond 2013-14, and the UK Treasury's longer-term forecasts.

They also look anaemic, and they will be worsened if interest rates go back up and payments for the national debt take a larger chunk of public spending.

Then, if the UK is trying to debt down from 79% towards the "golden rule" level of 40%, once treasured by Chancellor Gordon Brown, it will have to squeeze spending even harder.

By that time, the bills for demographic change will be getting clearer, with more people retiring, and more older people requiring expensive care.

So how can you continue to freeze council tax, avoid compulsory redundancies, build a new Forth bridge and have a successful Commonwealth Games, while keeping promises on health and education, and the current level of health and social care?

The CPPR recommends a much tougher budget department in St Andrews House as a necessary pre-condition to getting spending under control. But it will also require some serious thought now about five years away, rather than a row only focussed on next year.

According to director Richard Harris: "The Scottish Government now faces unprecedented change in relation to its budgetary future.

"Such a future may therefore require previously unprecedented changes in policy thinking and funding arrangements in order to steer a ay through, while limiting the negative impact on the current level of provision of public services."