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Rocky times for scotch

Douglas Fraser | 15:45 UK time, Thursday, 12 February 2009

Diageo, the world's biggest alcohol company, has produced its half-yearly results this morning, and the market is not impressed by reduced profit targets.

From Guinness to Smirnoff, the company has impressive reach into the world's pubs, clubs, off licences and livers.

But it is Diageo's dominance of the Scotch whisky industry - with 40% of the global market including the Johnnie Walker brand - that has particular interest north of the Tweed.

And the half-yearly trading update gives reason for some worries for the 10,000 Scots directly employed in making, bottling and distributing Scotch, with 40,000 more in the supply chain.

Although there are healthy effects on the balance sheet from the weakening of sterling, Diageo has told shareholders it wants to cut £100m from its cost base, meaning an unspecified number of job cuts.

Its biggest rival, Pernod Ricard, has half-yearly figures out tomorrow, which will show if there's a trend emerging.

After a record year in 2007 produced £2.8 billion in exports for the whole industry, the signals from Diageo's report are that there are of some sharp declines in volume sales.

The company recently opted to push up its prices to improve margin, so the reduction in volume is not something worrying the company's finance department so long as net sales value continues to rise.

For Johnnie Walker, for instance, volume is down 6% in the most recent figures, while net sales are up 5% (these figures comparing the second half of 2008 with the second half of 2007).

That drop in volume should worry those concerned with jobs in Scotland, for whom volume is more important than value.

The sharpest decline in demand was in Spain, the industry's second biggest market, where the bursting of the property bubble has put it in economic trouble similar to Britain's and Ireland's.

Scotch has become the cool, young person's drink of choice. But over the year, Diageo lost 20% by volume there, and 18% by value.

The J&B brand was down 25% across Spain and Portugal. Partly, this is put down to the company refusing to supply some outlets where they feared credit default.

In the Latin American and Caribbean markets, the economic downturn is being blamed for disappointing figures, including a drop in airport duty free sales hitting Scotch particularly hard.

The more positive growth areas include Russia and across Asia, though the more mature South Korean market has taken a hit and Johnnie Walker has taken a 14% drop in Chinese sales by volume.

In the USA, the largest single market for Scotch whisky, Diageo has pushed up the prices on two-thirds of the produce it sells, so volume is down there too.

Other telling findings about the way recession is affecting the drinks industry include the decline in Guinness, including its own troubled Irish home turf.

The toucan is selling a whole lot better in Africa, with sales up 25%, and Malaysia and Indonesia also taking to the black stuff in fast-growing numbers.

The biggest change is in the slump in demand for ready-to-drink products, many of them alcopops mixed with vodka.

That is down sharply across Diageo's markets, with interesting lessons for alcohol campaigners coming from Australia.

The Canberra government slapped a 70% increase on ready-to-drink products last April, and Diageo reports that led to a 34% cut in its volume sales.

Another telling part of the results is that Diageo is saving itself a whole lot of marketing money with the sharp cuts in advertising costs.

Good news for its shareholders, but a further sign of trouble for newspapers and beyond.

Friday 13 February Pernod Ricard has just released its half-yearly results, and the view from the Paris headquarters - with profits up 5% in the back half of last year - looks healthier than it does for its main rival across the Channel.

The wine and spirits company reports that sales of Perrier-Jouet champagne has suffered from the downturn in the United States, but otherwise, there is not much sign of a recession.

Of its main Scotch whisky brands, Ballantine's is growing strongly in China. Along with Clan Campbell, it is also doing well in France.

It reports good performance in eastern Europe, but "difficult situations, notably in Spain, UK and Italy".

But then there's a fine business euphemism about the current six-month accounting period: "Visibility is limited for the second half of the year".

Comments

  • Comment number 1.

    I am currently in the USA, from Scotland. Indeed, Americans are not willing to pay$60 and higher for a bottle of single malt. They have very nice bourbon here at a better price. All the press about a hopeless recession isn't helping either. Still, the lifestyle and cost of living here is much, much better than in the UK.

  • Comment number 2.

    I commented a while back in Brian's blog that the 'Scotland as a luxury brand' idea would be an albatross round our necks in the recession. The solution is to concentrate on producing things people want, and can afford, not telling them what they want via marketing.

  • Comment number 3.

    ROCKY FOR WHO? - Certainly not the for the fat cat variety within this industry (Shareholders / Management). Do you think that huge bonus / salaries / share dividends are confined to the banking captains of industry. If its ROCKY it will be for likes of the hard working loyal & committed masses that helped achieve some of the inflation busting livelihoods.

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