So that's that.
Here we are. The campaign is drawing to its close - one that's seen some heat, more heat than light perhaps.
My colleague David Cornock in his Reality Check feature for Wales Today drew attention to the fact that for all the talk of cuts in the coming years, the party manifestos are remarkably silent on where those cuts are actually going to fall.
Grist to the mill, maybe, for those who say that Wales isn't necessarily going to feel the level of swingeing cuts warned of in recent months.
But for people waiting for a relief road, or a new school, or an upgrade to a hospital building, watch out for some disappointing announcements from the government of whatever colour is formed after May and don't look back too closely at the manifestos.
Are we any closer, after a month of hard campaigning, to knowing what colour that government might be? The answer to that is probably no.
The received wisdom on whether Labour will make it to a majority? In short - no wise people are prepared to make a firm prediction.
Labour's campaign director Leighton Andrews' warning over the weekend about complacency wasn't simply a case of public positioning - it reflects the view within the party. The feeling is that they have done what they can to get where they want to go but from here on in, it's in the lap of the gods. A few thousand, or even hundred, votes in a few constituencies will make the difference between triumph and bitter disappointment. Perhaps even the weather.
If they don't make it, despite their poll leads, expect to hear much about incumbency as a factor (and even the current voting system that was, let's venture to mention, Labour's idea in the first place). The three other parties are well dug in in the seats then need to keep to deny Labour a majority. Some incumbents are reasonably sanguine about bucking the polls, others won't sleep between now and Friday - things are that close.
Should the result, when we finally get it, prove inconclusive, the mood music I'm hearing more and more in recent days is that there may be a collective pause for breath. The parties may well want to take stock of where they are before they launch into talks.
For Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats, the feeling is there's nothing to be gained by appearing to be too keen. If the Liberal Democrats do as badly as the polls suggest, and their number of seats slips from six to four, or even fewer, then the party membership will also want to take some time to reflect. There is far from a settled will within Plaid, too, about what the party should do after Thursday.
Voices in Labour are musing as to whether it may be better to sit tight for a while if they don't reach the 31. This could even be to the extent of forming a minority government for a period - a few weeks, even a few months, rather than rushing into a coalition, or some other agreement. "Let's let the other parties sort themselves out first, then see what we're dealing with" was the view from one well placed source who specialises in "just thought I'd mention it" kind of thoughts.
One very obvious pitfall of this strategy, which the party strategists will have noted, is the possibility that an interregnum could give their opponents the chance to organise an alternative administration, again, depending on how the cards fall.
Quickest off the blocks in any coalition race may well be the Conservatives. There is only one option open to them, of course and that's the fabled rainbow (or "losers coalition" as Labour have been instructed to call it). It will suit them to lay out what they can offer to the other parties early. Remember Cameron's "big open and comprehensive offer" to the Liberal Democrats after the 2010 General Election. The electoral mathematics may be very different in this case but the prize is potentially the same.
Nick Bourne's biggest problem, paradoxically, will be a successful night for his party. If he comes back with more AMs than Plaid Cymru, then Ieuan Wyn Jones has ruled out being part of a Tory led government. This means he'll need to come up with something - and I for one can't work out what it might be at this stage - if his dream of forming part of an Assembly Government is to be realised.
Last time round it took 12 weeks to form a government. Who knows how long it will take this time but as you cast your votes, spare a thought for the Belgians. 320+ days without a government - and counting.
Join us on TV and radio on Thursday night and into Friday as the story in Wales unfolds.
I'm Betsan Powys, ³ÉÈË¿ìÊÖ Wales' political editor. I'll be blogging the inside track on .
Comment number 1.
At 4th May 2011, RW49 wrote:I've just read Michael Crick's post and he is suggesting the possibility of a legal challenge in Aberconwy in the 'Woolas' mode. If so this could do all sorts of things to the eventual arithmetic of the future Assembly government. Such a challenge could deprive Labour of an overall majority but, at the same time, cast a large shadow over future coalition negotiations. Watch this space.
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Comment number 2.
At 4th May 2011, Dewi_H wrote:Where is that post please RW49?
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Comment number 3.
At 4th May 2011, paul luckock wrote:Compelling analysis from Betsan, I am presently working in Italy but find Betsan's reporting vital to understand what's going on. I just hope there is a really strong turnout tomorrow so that whatever the results it feels like the settled view of the majority of voters.
I look forward to following the reporting over the coming days.
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Comment number 4.
At 4th May 2011, Crossroads wrote:Is it written in tablets of stone that Labour MUST have an overall majority in this election in order to win (and keep) power.
Whilst appreciating that an overall majority would supply Labour with a rosy glow and provide peace of mind for our Carwyn, surely they have figured out that the remaining parties are not exactly enamoured of each other. In fact Plaid detest the Conservatives, and the Conservatives would never get under the duvet with Plaid.
The practical 'nuts and bolts' needed for any potential challenge to Labour just do not exist.
What makes things even easier for Labour is that even if the "impossible" happened and Plaid cosied up to the Tories to challenge Labour, they still would not have enough votes to command a majority and would need the help of the Lib-Dems and any other Green/UKIP types. Though Carwyn could play his ace and offer the fragrant Kirsty a tray of Clark's pies in return for her party's co-operation.
With the help of my souped-up Sinclair Spectrum and a few bottles of 'Old Speckled Hen' I can now reveal that just 28 seats should be enough to keep Labour in power.
This would also be enough to get Nick and Ieaun pulling their hair out which is something I'd pay good cash money to watch !
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Comment number 5.
At 4th May 2011, Ben Andone wrote:/blogs/newsnight/michaelcrick/
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Comment number 6.
At 5th May 2011, Mike Sivier wrote:This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the house rules. Explain.
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Comment number 7.
At 5th May 2011, Dewi_H wrote:Thaks Ben
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Comment number 8.
At 5th May 2011, Sludminger wrote:Should Labour win the projected 31 seats giving them a technical majority leaves Carwyn with an unenviable dilemma. Will his admistration be funcional. Realising the pressures Ministers have been under the past 4 years with their increased workloads these pressures are set to rise dramatically with their new powers. As a result any First Minister can expect colleagues to be absent due to other pressing duties. Throw in the odd illness and maternity / paternity leave then he or she could be left in a very difficult situation when trying to push through contentious programmes of work. A broader question and fundamentally more important is what is best for Wales? This glaringly obvious question doesn't seem to be asked as often as it might. Partly as there is no glaringly obvious answer. "Vote for Me" doesn't suffice.
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Comment number 9.
At 5th May 2011, Crossroads wrote:Reply to message 8
Sludminger, you seem extremely concerned about any AMs who might be unable to vote through all manner of disease and mishap.
Maybe our precious Assembly Members might try this......
After all there are only 60 of 'em and if they can't come up with a simple pairing arrangement then Gawd 'elp 'em !
You also seem to be angling for a larger number of AMs...Keep it up, the voters really love hearing stuff like that, though you can bet your last chocolate digestive us voters won't have a say in the matter....or will we?
By the way, if you keep on with the somewhat pompous "what is best for Wales" nonsense then I'm afraid you've completely lost the plot. You see, apart from a dozen or so scheming nationalists, on the whole the rest of us are quite fond of living in Wales. Us normal folk, in no particular order, consider the well-being of our families and friends, being in employment, the value of our homes, and whether or not we've won the Eurolottery far more important than the fanciful mutterings of pointless, nationalist, day-dreamers.
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Comment number 10.
At 5th May 2011, FoDafydd wrote:Re 9
Another unwarranted and unpleasant personal attack. What's up Crossroads?
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Comment number 11.
At 5th May 2011, Glyndo wrote:10. At 17:19pm 5th May 2011, FoDafydd wrote:
Re 9
"Another unwarranted and unpleasant personal attack. What's up Crossroads?"
I'll second that.
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Comment number 12.
At 5th May 2011, Crossroads wrote:Unwarranted and unpleasant personal attacks eh !
And there was I thinking that the old trick of poisoning the well in an attempt to influence our moderators was long gone. Still, nice to see an old technique being brushed off and used again.
Lads, if I thought for one moment that anything written in message 9 was in any way as you two described then I would be the first to apologise.
Kindly read it through again, this time acknowledging that this is an adult forum/blog run by the ³ÉÈË¿ìÊÖ. There was no "unpleasant personal attack" if you think there was then its obvious you have led extremely sheltered lives, and are extremely easily offended.
By the way, did you notice the nick-name of the author who you claim I had so unpleasantly attacked....."Sludminger" which is a toned down version of "Mudslinger"
Also I'm sure that anyone reading this little adventure will quickly realise that both of you gentle souls...FoDafydd and Glyndo, happen to be devout supporters of Plaid Cymru. Whereas I however most devoutly am not !
Thank you for asking after me...."Whats up Crossroads"....though I am confident that it will be me asking after the wellbeing of you two Plaid supporters in just a few hours time.
Or is that sentence just a little too unwarranted and unpleasant for you two?
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Comment number 13.
At 5th May 2011, caradog_minchin wrote:Just completed 4 hours on the A470 and it rained all the way - wonder what that will do to the numbers? [Spotted a large BNP lorry on a roundabout apparently playing martial music - quite disquieting]. Now planning to stay awake until the results are known - may live blog until this page closes. Alternatively, may get maximum sleep so that I can focus on breaking news of coalition discussions with individual from minority party (new to NAW) which holds the balance of power.
But finding it hard to rest because of the similarity between Nick Bourne's hair and Andrew Neil's plus the sight of ³ÉÈË¿ìÊÖ Wales' favourite weathercaster apparently sporting a PC favour last night - more likely just a daffodil, but the placards have mesmerised me.
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Comment number 14.
At 5th May 2011, caradog_minchin wrote:Sorry. Meant to add that to my non-lawyers eyes, there seems to be a time limit (28 days) on the machinations about which Betsan speculates.
The GOWA 2006 Section 47 refers.
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Comment number 15.
At 6th May 2011, Daviddwr wrote:#9
The point about pairs is a sensible one, especially as the Senedd is meant to be a less attritional place than Westminster. Perhaps that is one of those conventions which evolves when experient.
For the record, I am very happy to live in Wales, here and now. Scotland shows how the debate has moved on. Over the past three decades, where Scotland leads, Wales catches up, in time.
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