As I was saying...
- 13 Nov 06, 10:58 AM
Is tonight the night when Tony Blair will finally change course on Iraq in response to the shifting sands in Washington? If that's your hope, you're in for a disappointment.
The prime minister's speech is set to be an echo of the speech he delivered in Los Angeles in August. If you don't remember that speech it's probably because its message was drowned out by the fallout from the war in Lebanon. At the time, though, it was sold as a bold call on the US to change course. What's changed since then is not the message but the influence of those in Washington who agree with the analysis.
The PM spoke then on a need to "re-appraise our strategy". Tonight he'll speak in similar terms. He spoke then and no doubt will again of the need to "bend every sinew of our will to making peace between Israel and Palestine." In that speech he mentioned Iran eight times and Syria five, declaring that, "we need to make clear to Syria and Iran that there is a choice - come in to the international community and play by the same rules as the rest of us, or be confronted". Tonight I'm sure that message will be repeated.
He continues to believe that Syria and Iran are malign influences in Iraq, in Lebanon and beyond. Where he differs from George Bush is in his willingness to hold out the prospect of engagement with them instead of ostracising them as members of the "axis of evil". Britain - along with France & Germany - has negotiated with Iran over its nuclear programme. Last month, his foreign affairs adviser travelled to Syria.
Re-reading my blog about the LA speech I see that I was a little sceptical. I wrote...
- "So where then was the reappraisal? Where the re-think? Not on the war on terror itself but on the need to have a 'hearts and minds' strategy to match the military one... He argued that only an alliance of moderation could take on what he has dubbed the "arc of extremism". And that alliance would only emerge IF moderate Muslims saw that America believed in the need to create a Palestinian state. Nothing else, he said, was more important to the success of our foreign policy. In truth this is not a re-think at all."
How time and context change your perspective. I still believe that that speech did not represent a re-think from Tony Blair. However, if - as seemed unthinkable then - George Bush adopted it, that would represent a massive re-think by the president. The chairman of the Iraq Study Group, James Baker, shares the Blair view. As, we're told, does Bob Gates - the man nominated to succeed Donald Rumsfeld as Defence Secretary.
Yesterday the White House chief-of-staff, Josh Bolton, was asked if he favoured the idea of including Iraq's neighbours, Iran and Syria, in discussions. He replied that all options would be considered. We'll see...
PS: reports that senior Israeli officials are kicking around the idea of opening a dialogue with Syria. "The idea" - writes Jackson Diehl - "is to flip Syrian President Bashar al-Assad; to induce him to drop his alliance with Iran and join the moderate Sunni alliance that is quietly lining up against Tehran." This fits with Shimon Peres' talk recently of President Assad coming to Jerusalem. Of course, Bush could always take the road to Damascus which would certainly be a match for Nixon going to China.
