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Today's test

  • Nick
  • 28 Jul 06, 06:17 PM

To those who said they were doing nothing while Lebanon burned, Tony Blair and George Bush produced their answer. A route map, not to an immediate ceasefire but - they hope - a permanent end to hostilities.

The prime minister will regard the president's backing for a new UN resolution, a new international stabilisation force and a renewed drive to create a Palestinian state as proof of the benefits of the relationship he's forged.

There was proof too of how close both men are in their analysis of what George Bush called "the challenge of the 21st Century". Violence, Tony Blair argued, must be ended "on the basis of clear principles". He didn't spell out what that meant but it's clear what he means. Israel and Hezbollah will not be treated as equals. Terrorism must be seen not to pay. Democratically elected governments - whether in Israel or Lebanon - must be bolstered. States that sponsor terrorism - in particular Iran and Syria - must be confronted.

The president began by promising to rebuild Lebanon - the infrastructure and the houses that the Israelis have destroyed. I asked him why, instead, he didn't call on Israel to stop destroying them. It was not a question he welcomed . That, though, is sure to be the test of today's plan - how soon and for how long does it stop the killing - not just in Lebanon, of course, but in Israel too.

Hot house

  • Nick
  • 28 Jul 06, 04:33 PM

Washington DC: Just arrived at the White House where the temperature is fierce but President Bush's spokesman has just been decidedly lukewarm about talk of a new UN resolution.

Mr Blair and Mr Bush in Oval OfficeTony Snow told reporters here that the fundamental point is getting to have appropriate conditions on the ground to merit a new resolution and that moment has not yet occurred.

In terms of how pivotal this meeting with Blair actually is, Snow said it was arranged primarily because the prime minister was already going to be in California. "It would have been a little weird" for him not to come to the White House then.

As we queue to go through security we're greeted by a protester wearing a Bush mask with a placard saying "I love my poodle."

And Mary Masserini - the State Department's Queen of Protocol - is here to greet me too. She's been here every time I've come but informs me that this is the last time. She's decided to retire after 58 years here. Mary, I should add, is 80 years old.

Momentum metaphors

  • Nick
  • 28 Jul 06, 03:25 PM

Andrews Air Force base, Maryland: Sure enough, on board Blairforce One we were served up a string of momentum metaphors along with our scrambled egg and sausage. The PM wants, we're told, to "increase the urgency", "to step up a gear" and to raise "the tempo" of the search for the steps to bring about a ceasefire on both sides.

Tony Blair lands at Andrews Airforce Base
That means getting George Bush to back a UN resolution next week. It would establish a new international stabilisation force, call on foreign forces to leave Lebanon and on militias to be disarmed (a repeat of resolution 1559 in other words) and, though this may not appear in the final text, a deal on prisoner exchanges.

Politically he wants George Bush to help him rebut the claim that their refusal to call for an immediate ceasefire is in reality a green light for Israel to carry on bombing Lebanon whatever the consequences.

The problem they face, though, is that this is not a claim made only by their critics. The Israeli justice minister said yesterday that that "the world told us...to continue this operation, this war, until there is no Hezbollah presence in southern Lebanon".

That belief goes to the heart of the dilemma facing the twin architects of "the war on terror". Is Israeli action a vital part of that war that should get Bush and Blair's full support? Or, given its lack of success to date, is it now merely serving as a recruiting sergeant for the enemy?

That judgment will underlie just how much momentum towards the steps towards the resolution towards a ceasefire we see tonight.

Watch the news conference. It's sure to be fascinating.

Off with Blair to the US

  • Nick
  • 28 Jul 06, 08:28 AM

HEATHROW: This is - one of the prime minister's Cabinet colleagues told me - the most significant Blair/Bush summit ever. Not just, he said, because of the gravity of the situation in the Middle East; not just because of the widespread anger felt at Britain's position; not just because Tony Blair's own political position is precarious; but because of the by now infamous greeting from President to Prime Minister - "Yo Blair". That open microphone at the G8 summit captured what, as I mentioned yesterday, even in Whitehall they call the "poodle problem".

Tony Blair at Heathrow, Friday morning
Those close to Tony Blair call his approach to the US the "hug them close" strategy. Others less enamoured of it dub it "the bite your tongue" approach and they're tiring of biting their own tongues.

Stephen Wall, once the PM's adviser on Europe, is one of those who can now speak out. of his former boss's approach is echoed by many in Labour who are normally loyal to the prime minister.

Do not expect the Blair approach to change at the White House today. Not because Tony Blair fears a split with the US but because, as he delights in putting it, "it's worse than you think, I actually believe it".

The PM believes that calls for an immediate ceasefire treat Hizbollah - a terrorist organisation which rocketted Israeli civilians and captured her soldiers - as the moral equivalent of the democratic state it targetted and wants to destroy. It is, he argues, easy to be a commentator - easy, in other words, to label Israeli actions disproportionate. Harder, he insists, is to do what's necessary - that is, to develop a plan which both sides can sign up to and which will produce a sustainable ceasefire.

His advisers believe that their opposite numbers in the White House now understand that the American public's instinctive support for Israel is not shared in Europe. They hope their man can sell to the Americans a plan that they can sell to the Israelis which will then put Hizbollah on the spot and make clear that only their actions stand in the way of that immediate ceasefire. At its heart is the idea Tony Blair pushed at the G8 summit for an international stabilisation force. The hope is that this will be backed at a ministerial meeting of the United Nations next Tuesday.

The PM knows he's under huge pressure to prove that his approach delivers results. His Cabinet colleague told me this is the ultimate test of Tony Blair's entire approach to America.


UPDATE 0847BST
Downing Street is teling the world that Tony Blair will today inject urgency into the search for a ceasefire. This does not mean that he has become a convert to calls for an immediate ceasefire. It merely means that he dislikes being portrayed as opposed to a halt in the violence in Lebanon. And he wants to add urgency to the search for a plan which is, he believes, the only way to bring about a sustainable peace. If you heard me somewhat breathless on Radio 4's 7am news this morning, that's because I'd just read how this was being reported by some and wanted to unreport it!

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