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The Presbyterian Church has released the names of those on the shortlist: "Rev Norman Hamilton (Ballysillan) and Rev Derek McKelvey (Fisherwick) who received five and six nominations respectively in last years election. Dr Carson received 10. New names on the list are Rev Norman McAuley (Greenwell Street, Newtownards), Rev Roy Mackay (Second Comber) and Rev Ivan Patterson (Newcastle) along with Rev Ruth Patterson (Restoration Ministries) who has received several nominations in previous years."

So, how is this likely to go? If Norman Hamilton and Derek McKelvey hold on to their votes from last year (which can't be taken for granted), that leaves 8 decisive presbytery votes to win.

Norman McAuley is by far the most theologically conservative minister on the list, and one might expect him to win the support of the church's large conservative base. On the other hand, Norman McAuley may be perceived as too conservative for some of the conservatives, in which case their support may move to Norman Hamilton or (perhaps more likely) to either Ivan Patterson or Roy Mackay. Ivan Patterson and Roy Mackay could be described as mainstream evangelicals -- congregational ministers with denominational experience but no public profiles.

Dr Ruth Patterson was the first women to be ordained in the history of the Presbyterian Church in Ireland, and her work in reconciliation ministries has been honoured by the state (OBE) and by the Presbyterian theological college (with an honorary Doctor of Divinity degree). Nevertheless, she is unlikely to achieve more than a single presbytery's support in this election.

Derek McKelvey is perceived as a more liberal candidate by many conservatives, but not too liberal to frighten the horses. He has been a leading figure in the charismatic renewal movement for some years, including the Toronto Blessing movement, which will appeal to some, while alienating others. His intervention at last year's General Assembly, during which he argued that it would be "unbiblical" for Presbyterians to sue each other as a consequence of the Presbyterian Mutual Society crisis, won him rousing applause.

Norman Hamilton is a well-known evangelical -- perhaps on the progressive wing of evangelicalism -- who in recent years has become a significant public figure as a result of his involvement in the Holy Cross dispute (and was appointed an OBE for his community work). He is highly regarded as a public performer by many, while some conservatives think he has become too politicised.

The upshot here is a three-way split conservative vote between McAuley, Patterson and Mackay, which could leave either McKelvey or Hamilton as Moderator. If conservatives organise a consolidated vote for McAuley, he could come through in a tight election. In other words: it's too close to call. If I was a betting man (which I'm not), I'd expect the election to continue into March.