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Obama narrows the God gap

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William Crawley | 11:07 UK time, Friday, 7 November 2008

The changing pattern of religiously-based voting is one of the key dynamics in this presidential campaign. Look at the figures (based on exit polls): Obama got 43 per cent of weekly church-goers, while McCain got 55 percent. Last time round, in 2004, Bush got 61 per cent to Kerry's 39 per cent. The God gap has narrowed in this election. An increased number of committed Christians were prepared to vote for the Democratic; and fewer committed Christians were prepared to support the Republican candidate. A knock-on effect of the changing religious vote pattern is that issues of importance to the Christian right (e.g., abortion, homosexuality, stem cell research) failed to dominate this election. Barack Obama will name at least more Supreme Court justice during his tenure (it's more likely that he'll name two). He has pledged to protect Roe v. Wade. His election guarantees reproductive rights for American women for another generation (or two). That's what was at stake for the Christian right. And yet they still could not mobilize the kind of support that helped to re-elect George Bush in 2004. The role of religion in American presidential politics has changed dramatically.

Steven Waldman, , lays out the changing dynamic and explains how the landscape has changed.

Comments

  • Comment number 1.

    It amy be worth noting that Obama won between 1/3 and 1/4 of self identifying evangelicals. Down on Clinton, but up on Kerry.
    I would be much more interested to see how faithful church attending evangelicals (ie those with "internalised" religious attitudes) voted, as opposed to polls that focus on "externalised" faith (mere self identification). Pollsters often don't care.
    But if the Veritas Forum or Christianity Today's website are anythng to go by, the alliance between Evangelicals and the GOP is under review.

    This shouldn't be surprising. Many Black and Latino Churches have conservative views on Abortion and Gay Marriage, yet have traditionally voted Democrat.
    Evangelicalism tends to be a sub-urban phenomenon, as is support for Republicans.
    Steve Bruce has argued that the Religious Right could never achieve it's goals, as it could never accomodate it's idealism to the pragmatics of political life. There is also a traditional suspicion of politicians in Fundamentalist Churches that has never quite disappeared.
    Younger Evangelicals have tended to show more concern over the Environment and Poverty. Voting Democrat would be one way to signal to the old guard that these need to be given as much priority as Abortion or Stem Cell research.
    An interesting piece of Moral Panic can be read in this piece by Robert George. Presumably he will be expecting a Presidential order for the Slaughter of the Innocents in Bethlehem Pennsylvania.

    s%20Abortion%20Extremism_.xml

    In fact it occurs to me that if Obama were to moderate, say, some of his support for Stem Cell Research or Partial Birth Abortion then he could still pursue a strong Pro-Choice agenda, AND look like a moderate who is willing to compromise and unite the nation.

    In any case some figures seem at odds with William's, but the consistent picture seems to be that the God Gap is vanishing.

    "Mr. Obama ... also cut the Republican share of votes among those who attend church weekly or more often to 55% from 61%".
    Wall Street Journal

    Again, I'd like exact figures on Evangelicals if anyone can find them.

    GV



  • Comment number 2.

    Looks like its just you and me who care about the God gap Will. Pity. Interesting subject.

    GV

  • Comment number 3.

    The real story of this election being ignored by the media is how American ethnic minorities are voting tribally and threatening to destroy the melting pot which was the country's greatest strenght. Obama won the election because 95% of blacks voted for him. You can say this is great and a sign of change etc - but how would it be if all the whites vote for white candidates? The media would say they were racist. Every time race was mentioned in the media it was in terms of whites reluctance to vote for him. Without the racist black vote Obama wouldn't have won.

  • Comment number 4.

    Yep, Smasher, that's the story. Blacks are conquering the world.

    G Veale

  • Comment number 5.

    I'm pretty sure that up until now white voters did vote for white Presidential candidates.
    And in any case Clinton used race against Obama, and it didn't work.

    G Veale

  • Comment number 6.

    Veale - this is the first election in which there has been a white and an African American candidate. And in this case the white vote split fairly evenly between the two candidates, while 95% of blacks voted for the black candidate. If the reverse situation had happened and all the whites voted for the white candidate, the pundits would be announcing how dreadful and racist America was. Instead we have to listen to nonsense about God gaps and how Republicans need to move to the centre blah, blah. All republicans need to do next time round is run a black candidate.

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