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Paul, have you seen Brazil recently? Or did you mean Alan Brazil? Agree with your main point though. Just look at what Inter did in the Champions League, beating far more eye-pleasing sides with hard pressing, organisation, and an us-against the world attitude. It's the kind of thing that has always served the Italians well, although they used to have at least one or two players with the skills to unlock the door. Greece winning the Euros showed the way it was going to go. A win for Argentina would turn all this upside down though. Doubt Diego has talked to a nutritionist or sports pyschologist in his life, unless he met then in rehab.

I was with you until the dark horse tips bit!

Serbia and USA!!

Better stick with economics Paul.

There are unlikely to be any dark horses this year for the reasons you cite I think. The closest you will get to a dark horse will be South Africa, they are not even expected to get out of their group, yet their recent form is good and usually the home team plays beyond expectation.

As usual the bookies follow entrenched public perception in developing odds in such events. South Africas recent good form and home advantage has not been taken fully into account based on entrenched perceptions so probably some value to be had there as well as Peter Crouch getting the golden boot (or in his case it should be a golden head) at 40 to 1.

Most top scorers are determined during the group stages not later stages, England are in a weak group and Peter Crouch is 7ft tall scores regularly but is inexplicability un-fancied by the betting public usually simply because he does not look like a striker, is a bit gangley and does very uncool robot dances in celebration.

40 to 1 each way (top 4 finish) is exceptional value not even hedge fund managers could dream of.

Gambling...erm I mean investing in sports markets is much more fun than all this dry financial and stock market stuff.

But remember, unlike bankers, only bet (erm i mean invest) with money that belongs to you and only bet what you can afford to lose and wont ruin your evening if you are wrong.

If only investment bankers were as responsible as most punters in betting shops perhaps non of this financial mess would have happened.

Now there is a thought.....

Best drilled?! You make it sound like the Stepford World Cup. Don't we have enough Stepford politicians to be going on with?! I want blood and guts!

Any possibility that we might see you and JP (plus even MC, MU, and GE) illustrate the FIRST socio-psychological function of football (para 2) live on telly?

Hmmmmn, nice attempt to circumscribe the beautiful game, however like all "general theories" I suspect that there is always what WASPS would term the unknown unknown lurking in the hinterland. Alternatively the Latins call this "the hand of God".

Whatever, I enjoy watching the Africans play, so viva the "Schwartzkomando" and enjoy the spectacle !

A good metaphor, but i think your view is based on the same cautious realism that forms the biscuit-base of your natural disappointment with the frothy potential of the current libertarian left.

OK, to be serious. Football has two aspects, defence and attack, and the World Cup is the superb showcase for the flexing tension between them. Its history can be seen as a series of regular bookmarks in the development of the modern game, which is constantly changing. Scottish defence superceded by winged attack superceded by bolt and braces defence superceded by exclamation attack (as in PELE! and JAIRZINHO!) superceded by the brilliant orange of Total Balance.

The modern game (from about '92 i reckon) could be described as technical balance. The business metaphor can be stretched further: everything is results-based and 'grade of service' is the post-Fordist, post-emotional king of 'performance assessment' - miles run, minutes played, passes completed, shots, shots on target. 'Big Sam' sits in his datazone and directs, producing the win,draw,lose then winning formula for what has become a bland product, built by a stressed out workplace to generate the sufficient numbers.

History does not End, however. Football is not a machine, any more than business is a machine. A new bookmark will be placed, and maybe this time it will be time for an emotional, fiery, attacking side that builds up relentless momentum until defensive systems buckle. And maybe that defining team will be an attacking England, who know they can't defend against the best team so they may as well start slinging and turn it into a shoot-out. Or maybe it will be Marado and the Argentinians. Who knows?

Thats the beauty, no one ever sees big change coming, you just know that eventually it always comes. Think Big Paul! :-)

is football just masturbation for the masses?

despite all the [not so many] crappy [made in china] england flags adorning french made motorcars....i have never known the nation so underwhelmed by the world cup.

i actually believe no one could give a fig if...

Is the MPC large enough to form their own football team? The game might ensure they are more productively utilised.

Government economic policy seems to headed towards own goals.

You're right Paul, but most pundits seem to think Brazil are now the type of side you think of.

I think another application of science to football is the idea of networks. The best network is one where each node (player) has as many options as possible in terms of other nodes (players) to link to (pass to). The old 'pass and move' - for that think Barcelona, think Spain.

The network has a greater number of possibilities for creation, and will therefore surprise the opposition and makes fools of them.

Hard to see anyone beating the Spaniards.

Paul,

I dont think your assessment of success in football takes account of the human factor associated with the Brazil teams sucess. They are by far the most sucessful nation in the history of the world cup.

Personaly I think a little known fact may greatly contribute to this sucess on a deeply psychological level.....

A great deal of the Brazillian players names on shirts are 'nick names' not real names. They are the only team to do this.

For example 'Hulk' (forward) is not a bizarre brazillian name it is his nick name because ..well he looks like the Hulk not to put too finer point on it.

It is also very important to understand that 'Hulk' is not so far up himself as to not be too proud to have 'Hulk' as his representation of his self to the world (see what I mean in terms of the psychological dynamic).

It does not stop there.

Another example is the manager 'Dunga' is actually the name they have for 'Dopey' in snow white and the seven dwaves in brazil. That is his name yet he still comands respect from all his players... would anyone in the England squad refer to Fabio Capello in similar terms?

In the past 'careca' (Baldie in english) was a good player and yes he lost all his hair very early in life.

Fantastic isnt it!!!!

Any brazil name on the shirt with 'Ze' in front basically means 'big' so 'ZE' Roberto is 'big robert', conversely if they have 'inho' on the end it means small so 'Ronaldinho' is 'little Ronaldo'.

KaKa - I think is the brazillian equivalent of laughter i.e. we have HA HA HA Ha , they have ka ka ka ka ka ka ...

Delightful!!!

Pele is also a nickname (dont know what that means) but amusingly the legendary player 'socrates' is not!!!

So when you watch Brazil play and think about why the best teams are the best teams you need to consider this. They do not take themselves too seriously.

So when you watch brazil play in the world cup add to your enjoyment of the spectacle by realising 'dopey' is directing 'laughter' and 'little robert' on the pitch while ' the 'hulk' causes chaos up front and 'Cesar' holds the fort in Goal... to be fair I think Cesar is his real name in his case actually.

Who said the world cup does not matter.. as one greek bloke once said '' the superflous...a very necesarry thing''.

Got to be better than waiting for the 'office of budget responsibility' statement due on Monday. I think this country could learn athing or two from Brazil.

Enjoy the world cup everyone. I will be.

Gene pool and paygrade takes care of technical excellence,stamina and tactical acumen. Now we come on to : inspiration,creativity,leadership,courage,determination,loyalty,team work......

Lets hope for no : over expectation,narcissism,triangular passing backwards,nervy defence eyeing one another,over cautious midfield ,slow start through group,home press criticism,bunker mentality and wilt in knock-out phase.

There was a moment when football clubs, albeit usually financially failing ones, were becoming co-ops of fans, either to save the clubs financially, or as protests against big outside takeovers.

Although I'd like to see people action about something a bit more important than football clubs - perhaps it was a good sign of a step towards empowerment and engagement.

Today football clubs, tomorrow banks.

If you think the 'own goal' by Rob green last night was bad, wait until we get the ominously named ' office of budget responsibility' report tomorrow.

Double 'ouch'

My 8 year old daughter plays in goal for her primary school and I do not exagerate when I say I would have expected her to save that one.

Never seen anything like it in the top flight.

Expect similar rhetoric on a financial footing tomorrow.

I noticed an aparent 'minor' story this morning about Iran sending a flotilla of humanitarian aid to gaza under military escort.

Is it just me?

Looks like quite a nasty potential flash point this gaza thing, israel has miscalculated badly I think, the right thing to do would be to drop the blockade, which was dubious in the first place, on the condition that there is no increased rocket attack activity (there should be non but I am a pragmatist).

What is more likely to happen is Israel will refuse to back down and will therefore have its resolve tested again and again by flotilla after flotilla od aid, every time they repel one they will look more and more like the opressor not the opressed.

The tide of global sentiment and geopolitical dynamic could be on the turn against Israel unless someone gets a hold of it and manages it. I would not like to even think about what may happen if they get backed further and further into a corner, which is what it looks like at the moment.

I am sure the bilderbergers have got it all worked out though, if they ever thought us worthy enough to share in their 'wisdom'.