Angry America: why an oil-man's scenario worries me
There are bonkers theories about a new American Civil War: there are predictions of it, even computer games based on it - and then there is reality.
But reality in America is looking a little bit different than it did before the passage of the Obama healthcare bill. Public discourse has reached "mad as hell and not going to take it anymore" levels and, watching it all from the outside, I am wondering where it all ends up.
There has been an outbreak of vandalism - bricks through politicians' windows; there have been threats of violence and a lot of violent language. Democrats, in response have begun to mainstream Republican commentators of stoking up the violence, and in turn they have accused the Democrats of trying to provoke a violent reaction.
All this has made me consider in a new light something said by an oil-man who consults for one of the biggest companies in the world. Last summer he told me:
"We run a mainframe computer simulation of the global political and economic situation, modelling various outcomes of the resource crunch that begins in the back half of the 2010s. And no matter which way we tweak it, it always comes out with the same result: civil war in America in 25 years's time."
For obvious reasons, given that the said company is a global player, they were not very interested in publicising the scenario.
In this oil company scenario the driver is not ideology but simply resources. As explained to me, the question becomes whether the world's biggest consumer of petroleum based products can move away from oil dependency fast enough; and in the scenario the answer is no because its political institutions are too consensual. That is, even where you get politicians who are prepared to act decisively, there are so many checks and balances - state-level opt-outs, Supreme Court, Congressional filibuster, corporate-controlled media etc - that they can never implement the most painful decisions. And as a result the political system fragments once the oil gets scarce.
I am always wary of "ACW 2.0" scenarios because they are a recurrent fantasy for people who don't like the USA. Russian professor Igor Panarin, for example, that the USA would begin to fall apart this year and that the dollar's role as a world currency would end last year. As summarised by the Panarin predicts:
"Economic, financial and demographic trends will provoke a political and social crisis in the U.S. When the going gets tough.. wealthier states will withhold funds from the federal government and effectively secede from the union. Social unrest up to and including a civil war will follow. The U.S. will then split along ethnic lines, and foreign powers will move in."
(Panarin is a Dean at the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Diplomatic Academy.)
Now let's look at current reality. In the aftermath of President Obama's healthcare bill there are three separate strands of conservative opposition brewing.
The most important is the revived Palin/McCain bandwagon that has hit Nevada this week and will move countrywide until mid-April. This is an attempt to ride the wave of the Tax Teaparty movment and turn it into an electoral rout for the Democrats in November's midterm elections.
What liberal commentators have taken offense to is the use of gun language and symbolism, with Sarah Palin's website indicating "target" Democrats using .
The next strand is the . Though the movement is massive, peaceful and encompassing large numbers of grassroots Republicans, some demonstrators in Washington hurled racial and homophobic abuse and threats at Democratic Congressmen; and some placards carried the implicit threat of violence. This was then condoned and stoked up by some right wing radio show hosts.
Then there is the actual violence. Democrat Party office windows were broken in several states. Ten Democrat lawmakers have been offered police protection. This op-ed from the Washington Post contains a .
In this context for the anti-healthcare bill campaign is worth watching. The tone is more in sorrow than in anger but contains the following commentary on the liberal media's response to the verbal abuse on Capitol Hill:
"Why are the Tea Parties always being labeled as terrorist? Why is it? "They're extremists, they're terrorists, they're hatemongers, they're dangerous!" What is it that these evolutionaries want? You'd pick up a gun? You ever thought of that? These people have. Because possibly, maybe the question should be asked: Maybe they're tired of evolution, and they are waiting for revolution."
At the end of the broadcast Beck calls for a return to rational discourse. But those like former Bush aide David Frum who have urged the movement to moderate its language in order to give elected representatives room for manouver .
What seems to me problematic is that the whole 24-hour furyfest is being conducted with almost no overt reference to America's history of political breakdown in the 1850s. Here's why it's worth bearing in mind.
James McPherson's The Battle Cry of Freedom, Allan Nevins' 8-volume Ordeal of the Union and Shelby Foote's trilogy The Civil War: A Narrative all remind us that the actual American Civil war was preceded by a long and complex political breakdown process accompanied by demographic change and economic modernisation.
It was not just "about slavery". It was about the emergence of a new political model of industrial capitalism in the northeast and Midwest and the rise of a political party that represented the new system, and had no support whatseoever in the slave-owning south. That, at the time, was the Republican Party.
As matters degenerated you saw the habitually rowdy electoral process give rise to more systematic violent acts, from the outbreak of political violence in Kansas, to John Brown's guerilla raid on Harper's Ferry, to the maiming of anti-slavery Senator Charles Sumner by pro-slavery Representative Preston Brooks on the floor of the Senate.
Allan Nevins argued that by the late 1850s America contained "two peoples": culturally, socially and ethnically different (black slavery in the south plus 9/10ths of European immigrants headed for the North). McPherson explained that, to the white slave-ocracy and its plebeian supporters, the rise of industrial capitalism and its liberal values did look like a revolution:
"When secessionists protested in 1861 that they were acting to preserve traditional rights and values, they were correct. They fought to preserve their constitutional liberties against the perceived Northern threat to overthrow them. The South's concept of republicanism had not changed in three-quarters of a century; the North's had.... The ascension to power of the Republican Party, with its ideology of competitive, egalitarian free-labor capitalism, was a signal to the South that the Northern majority had turned irrevocably towards this frightening, revolutionary future."
I want to make clear: it would be totally wrong to extrapolate from all this any direct parallel with today's situation in the USA. But in the light of my oil-man's scenario there are pertinent questions worth asking.
The Obama presidency seems determined to confront a number of strategic challenges to the USA: having 32 million people with no access to healthcare was the first. Having 11 million undocumented migrants could be the next.
But Obama's project for America seems to have frightened large demographic slice of the population which did not vote for it. In that sense alone there is a parallel with the economic modernization context of the 1850s.
If America is faced with huge, painful choices contingent on the outbreak of global resource rivalry in the next 20 years you would not ideally want to go into such a period with politics so polarized along ethnic, demographic, social and cultural lines.
Yet, in less than a generation US politics have become polarized in a way the mainstream media and academia are still struggling to understand.
It is worth remembering two things facilitated the run-up to civil war in 1861. First, the breakdown of the party system. The Democrats split along pro-and anti-slavery lines and a plethora of small parties emerged. Second the emergence of mass political engagement, with huge rallies, a viscerally agitated press on both sides.
Again, without over-egging the parallels, you have mass engagement bigtime now, with high-turnout elections ever since the ideological divide opened up, and a raging blogosphere. And you have the possibility of a strategic split in the Republican Party along social and cultural lines, though at present the Palin strategy seems to be to conquer the GOP for the Teaparty movement rather than to split from it.
Where does it all end? The answer will be determined by whether America's constitution and two-party system can contain the new viscerality of its political life. There is a strong chance that it can. Above all because America is the global superpower and has a very strong Federal state machine.
If it does, the outcome may be a long pattern of ideological presidencies, Clinton, Bush, Obama and then maybe Palin; swings to the left and right contained by the ability of states to opt out of stuff they don't like and by Supreme Court rulings, impeachments, lame-duck Presidencies etc. It's not hard to imagine because it's what has characterized the period since the mid 1990s. Liberal metropolitian types would go on living their lifestyle and suburban religious fundamentalists likewise, without coming to any more blows than verbal.
But the fact remains the USA is a country with an unsustainable budget deficit, a role in the world that is being challenged by China; and it is addicted, economically, to a substance that is going to be in contested supply within our lifetimes.
Its political institutions are going to come under strain as a result and the 1850s are a reminder that once politics slides into viciousness, over fundamental strategic questions, it's hard to pull back.
Comment number 1.
At 28th Mar 2010, stayingcool wrote:And does the crystal ball suggest more or less chance of a revolution here?
No I am not joking
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Comment number 2.
At 28th Mar 2010, flicks wrote:Yeah I read about parallels with 1922 - Weimar Republic of Germany : -
"PARALLELS OF WEIMAR HYPER-INFLATION
Hyper-inflation remains a threat, as parallels are strong with 1922 in the Weimar Republic of Germany. Ben Bernanke has been set in contrast to Rudolf von Havenstein, the central banker responsible for Germany's hyper-inflationary period. The parallels are absolutely shocking between the US climate of 2010 and that of the infamous Weimar Republic. Despite 1922 being such a long time ago, the more advanced and sophisticated financial framework and government actions bear frightening parallels to the Weimar Republic. Grasp the parallels. They are as lengthy as they are ominous in foretelling price problems dead ahead.
Von Havenstein monetized debt from the German Govt after World War I, just like Bernanke monetizes the USGovt debt after the Wall Street collapse. The debt purchase dragged on long past the initial stop-gap of debt purchase with printed money, but the war dragged on, just like the insolvency of banks and housing drags on. VonH was praised as a hero, even granted a national hero award, like BenB as Man of the Year. Actions on the monetization path were difficult to stop since price inflation seems under control during the early stages. The national climate was very difficult and strained, with political factions deeply polarized, just like Democrats and Republicans in the USCongress. War Reparations were a huge factor in the debt to cover, just like Wall Street bank extortions and USGovt nationalizations (Fannie Mae, AIG, General Motors) are a huge factor. The mass unemployment and home loss tell a tale about domestic economic and political crisis on both fronts. VonH gave blame to external forces for their economist blunder, much like BenB blames hedge funds for his blunders. VonH Herr missed the connection between the continued issuance of new notes and the rise of commodity prices amidst foreign exchange rate volatility, just like BenB fails to comprehend the link between monetary growth and the oil price or US$ decline."
Ref
Just remember the guys a gold analyst so doom talk is in their interests however this guy has been proved right in recent times.
Palin for President ? Crikey - Buy gold, make sure you have a good supply of underpants and a toothbrush - god knows where you will end up.
The Americans are crazy could this be one reason why :- )
When the oil runs out really massive power shifts will happen with probable major wars along the way to bring them/us out of the addiction. Lets just hope the scientific community can make fusion power work in the next 70 or so years.
A bit of hope maybe :
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Comment number 3.
At 28th Mar 2010, stanilic wrote:How much of this is puff from an hysterical media?
Those of us who knew America, or was it Amerika then, in the late Sixties and Seventies have heard all this sort of stuff before.
The reality is that most people are moderate, responsible and know which side of their bread is buttered.
The problem in the US as in the UK is that the economic model is broken. The elites who have broken the economy are seeking to avoid their liability and the subsequential changes that will eventually diminish their status, authority and wealth: so they kick up a storm in the hope the dust will blind us from natural justice.
They won't succeed either in the US or in the UK. Their number is up and they know it, even though we can't quite see it yet.
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Comment number 4.
At 28th Mar 2010, stanilic wrote:Sarah Palin is proof that you can grow fruit in Alaska.
Sorry; just reloading.....
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Comment number 5.
At 28th Mar 2010, duvinrouge wrote:Oil & the dollar.
Not only is peak oil & higher energy prices an important factor but also the role of the dollar.
The buyers of US debt know that the US is printing paper that will never be redeemed at the stated value.
Yet so far the Chinese continue to buy US T-Bills to manipulate their currency so that can still export & prevent the social unrest that could mean the end of the one-party state.
But this is also their nuclear option should conflict with the US arise.
Other buyers of US debt do not face such imperatives.
The result when it comes will be higher US interest rates & a much lower dollar.
For the ordinary US citizen the cost of living will go up, with perhaps hyperinflation to accompany the high interest rates killing off any investment that could potentially benefit from the lower dollar.
Stagflation.
Nationalistic & racist sentiments will come to the fore (not that they are much below the surface today).
And of course all these people have guns.
I think Gill Scott Heron got it wrong, the revolution will be televised.
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Comment number 6.
At 28th Mar 2010, tawse57 wrote:What? You mean that all those Kevin Costner 'end of the US, World and Humanity' turkeys will finally have meant something?
Oddly enough, the serious bears over on the housepricecrash forum have long been talking about this - it started with house prices being over-priced, ended up with long discussions about moving from the countryside into the suburbs... and then from the suburbs into the towns and cities themselves in order to cut down on transportation costs due to lack of oil... and ended up with sizeable numbers of them hoarding gold and baked beans.
You never know Paul, a decade or so from now millions of Americans may be watching 'Waterworld' or 'The Postman' on whatever passes for TV, whilst snacking on their 'Soylent Green', and may well consider them both great works of visionaries!
At least it should help resolve their obese problem!
Personally, I am a Trekkie and have tremendous faith in Humanity to overcome the challenges ahead - although, in the Star Trek Universe it take a global calamity to bring about World peace, brotherly love and endless hours of pleasure in the holo-suites. Oh well, if things get really bad I suppose we can all disappear through that Stargate thingy they keep in the Cheyenne Mountain Complex. Sssh!
At least we can blame it all on estate agents. I can see it now - Humanity on the brink of extinction until one visionary drives to our rescue in a battered mini cooper. Kevin Coostner is 'The Estate Agent'!
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Comment number 7.
At 28th Mar 2010, Jericoa wrote:Technology, if used to its full potential and in an unleveraged way could prevent the scenario described from ever occuring.
The States are top of the league for inovation and technological advance, a good recent example is the recent advancement in horizontal drilling and hydrofracturing technology. It potentially allows vast gas reserves in the US to be tapped which previously were not considered to be reserves at all as they are locked into very low permeability rocks kilometers down which have to be broken up in place to allow pathways for the gas to travel along. It could keep them going for decades without reliance on foreign shores.
Texas of all places is now ''windfarm central'.
We have the technology to manage a sensible transition from the old economic model to a new one. But at the moment, nobody mainstream is even talking about that fantastic next challenge for mankind. They are talking about 'restoring growth' and increasing prosperity without re-defining what prosperity actually is now fit for a new technological age.
The developing nations can not go through the same process we did, the planet can not take it. It should be up to the developed nations to offer up and deliver an alternative economic model via technology which is sustainable.
But nobody ever talks about that.....there is no money in it apparently.
Which is weird because money is only supposed to be a trading mechanism for value, it is not value itself.. so why should we be botherd about ' whether there is any money in it' when we should e bothered about whether there is any value in it?
If the answer is yes.. we should just do it, the money will look after itself as aresult.
But heck what do I know I am just an engineer, I should just shut up and mind my own business there are far more intelligent people than me running the show and they have the qualifications to prove it.
I am off to say goodnight to the kids now, it costs nothing and there is loads of value in it I can tell you.
Goodnight all.
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Comment number 8.
At 28th Mar 2010, stanblogger wrote:Many people, when they or a member or their family is desperately ill, will make great sacrifices to get the very best medical treatment. Unfortunately there are some health professionals who exploit this very human trait and receive very high incomes as a result. To protect those incomes they are willing to fund very strong lobbying campaigns against any government intervention in healthcare provision, because they fear that it will no longer be as easy to exploit the sick.
This happened in the UK when the NHS was being founded. Just as it has taken a politician of the caliber of President Obama to get his bill through Congress, it took Aneurin Bevan, another exceptional politician, to get the NHS through the UK Parliament.
Once the NHS got started, people realised that the fears raised by the intense lobbying were unfounded, and it is now political suicide for any UK politician to suggest fundamental changes.
I expect that the same will happen in the US and that the unpleasant events that you refer to, are the dying spasms of the lobbying campaign.
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Comment number 9.
At 28th Mar 2010, DebtJuggler wrote:Such a lot of words Paul!
...but why are kids in this country so much more revered for how they can sing, play football and dance...more than they're are good at maths, science and english?
Remember Paul, you need to to understand what the root cause of this country's malaise is....if you don't find that out...you really are shooting in the dark.
...its good 'ere...innit!
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Comment number 10.
At 29th Mar 2010, GiuseppeH wrote:Did your oil contact also tell you who would win such a war? Please don't say Palin!!
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Comment number 11.
At 29th Mar 2010, jauntycyclist wrote:models?
like the climate change one?
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Comment number 12.
At 29th Mar 2010, stevie wrote:It's too late guys...all to late, we've already bought the farm
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Comment number 13.
At 29th Mar 2010, FaustKnits wrote:Excellent article, Mr. Mason; very observant + interesting parallels between current circumstances and the Civil War. A few comments:
"the question becomes whether the world's biggest consumer of petroleum based products can move away from oil dependency fast enough; and in the scenario the answer is no because its political institutions are too consensual..."
The reason our political institutions are too consensual is not because of excessive checks and balances, but because they have all been captured by the same corporate interests. I find it ironic that Big Oil is complaining that the US won't be able to move away from oil dependency fast enough, when it was Big Oil's death grip on our energy policy that prevented us from making any preparations.
"Yet, in less than a generation US politics have become polarized in a way the mainstream media and academia are still struggling to understand."
Also very disingenuous - the media is largely responsible for the polarization. They set up the false dichotomy of Democrat vs. Republican, and demonize the one or the other (depending on which channel you're watching), in order to keep the public distracted from what is really going on: the decimation of the middle class and consolidation of power into corporate/financial hands. The "ideological swings" you refer to are false: Obama paints himself like a progressive, but his healthcare plan is a bonanza for the insurance industry, his treasury department has shelled out trillions to the financial industry, and he has somehow managed to continue Bush's wars. It doesn't matter who we elect, the policies are the same.
The real emotion prevalent over here is not anger but fear. Most of the folks I talk to have taken huge hits to their net worth. House prices have dropped over 40% where I live, there's three foreclosures on my block and any number of people underwater. Younger people are terrified of losing their jobs, and older folks worry about living on social security and medicare when the government is cutting the latter and printing money. Prices in the grocery stores and at the gas pumps are going up far in excess of the reported rate of inflation. My city is instituting a food tax - a food tax! - to make up for lost revenue; the county wants to increase the sales tax, and is calculating property taxes according to assessments from the peak of the boom, rather than current prices. We're losing police and firefighters, many public libraries have been closed, and a number of state parks have been closed. There's an average of three bank closures a week nationwide ( - "too small to bail" banks that got dragged under by local residential and commercial real estate loans.
People here are starting to use the "d" word - depression. If an oil shock does hit, folks will have no safety cushion - everybody's living on the edge as it is.
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Comment number 14.
At 30th Mar 2010, arnonerik wrote:"There has been an outbreak of vandalism - bricks through politicians' windows; there have been threats of violence and a lot of violent language."
Theses things you describe are a scam. Nothing more than Democrats lying and their media shills spreading the lies. If you have been fooled you are in good company. Even Bill O'Rielly of Fox News bought into it. They are just trying to demonize those people who don't buy into the Progressive nightmare. For instance, one conservative, Andrew Breitbart, offered $100,000 for anyone who could prove the alleged racial slurs to black congressmen on the Capitol steps. There were video cameras everywhere but no one claiming the money.
Isn't it hard to believe? But it's true! Democrats and the Liberal Media lie!
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Comment number 15.
At 2nd Apr 2010, Paddytoplad wrote:Why do our british left think Palin is a looney?
What policy or comment has she made that gives you this impression?
Ask yourself this, what do you really know about Palin apart from the fact that she is the butt of the left wing medias jokes?
Remember the hysteria surrounding Portillo. People portrayed him as some right winger bordering on the National socialist yet what was this based on. Hype pure and simple hype. He seems a very moderate 'wet' centrist tory yet he was portrayed as the devil incarnate.
If there is someone to blame for the nastiness of American politics blame the TV news people that never gave bush a chance. He wasnt in office five minutes before the beebs own news office had a picture of him hanging up with a hitler moustache.
Who are the extremists?
The 70s hippies have grown up and now run the white house and they want to impose their will on hardworking normally law abiding americans.
The health debate is not really an argument between people who are for or against universal health care it is an argument between those who are seriously worried whether their country can afford it at this present moment and those who dont care and want to risk it even at these incertain times. The concerned part of the US is being ignored belittled and patronised by the ideologs of the left and so its no wonder that the Tea Party movement has been born.
The tea party folk are just normal everyday people who want/need/demand a voice. If, and by god I hope it doesnt, if America splits it will not be because of fox news and the blogosphere it will be because of artschool intellectuals who blindly ignore the opinions of the silent majority.
Mr Mason, your politics are Marxist and I respect your right to have them but playing revolutionary is only fun until the first shot is fired.
People from both sides should take a moment and think about which way this is leading they should step down from their soapboxes and engage and listen to ALL the people not just those who frequent their bubble like social circles. Talk to real people involve them dont exclude namecall or patronise.
Think of the names slung at the people who disagree with our establishment.
Denier
Little Englander
Racist.
These names are too strong and overly used by the left. I have used the term Hippy above but I dont mean it in a disparaging way but in a short hand that encompasses a belief set. If it has offended anyone I apologise and maybe someone would offer a less provocative alternative.
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Comment number 16.
At 14th Apr 2010, Jimmy wrote:Dear Sir
Panarin was trying to destabilise the U.S using psychological warfare techniques. Subconcious suggestion does not always work, but oil production trends can be pretty reliable indicators of related social effects.
The U.S will not remove its dependence on crude oil because it is such a massive dislocation to the existing way of life in the western world no government will even attempt to justify the neglect and suppression of the issue. The elites who run the U.S are trying to save their necks, hence the republicans attaching their tentacles to the tea party movement. its just populism. They intend to see the U.S fight amongst itself and remain standing at the end of it. Unfortunately, people aren't that stupid and will probably vent their anger at the government.
Its weimar all over again, If you pull energy out from a society, it begins to fragment. Its entropy in action. Weimar was the most advanced society in the world, it was up and coming, yet as soon as it hit an energy problem, it went nuts and the rest is history. If you look at how unproductive we are because of cheap fossil fuels, its quite understandable why we are in debt. We literally produce nothing of real quality, andwhat we do produce requires energy which is becoming more expensive. How did it come to this?
If you want to get growth of any kind from a new industry, about the best thing we can do at low cost is cultivate Hemp en masse and use it for biofuel (methanol), this will offset any crude oil issues, and get the U.K/U.S back on its feet. I wonder if we can be mature enough work together to achieve this end.
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Comment number 17.
At 14th Apr 2010, KTwen wrote:Please see Thomas L. Friedman's March 23, 2010, NY Times column, 'A Tea Party Without Nuts.' Sir Winston Churchill was adamant that a study of history and the factors and forces behind the acts in countries' histories was key to solving a nation's problems, as well as its discernment of its place in contributing to the health of the world during its time on Earth. Unless concensus builds to seek determined solutions for the greater common good, eschew hate-mongering and the voices agitating for it, and elevate the educational goals and emotional quotients of the voting decision-makers of free countries, all that is worst in human nature may fill the void. Enlightened self-interest alone should guide choices for our better angels to guide us...until we determine what it is in the spirits animating the worst in mankind the true evils will still seem to point at people, systems, programs and movements. It is as 'Pogo' said: "We have met the enemy, and he is us."
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Comment number 18.
At 5th Aug 2010, Freedom56 wrote:You have to rely on some oilman's computer simulation? Interesting. Is he American? See, you need to ask an American. Someone who was born here, raised here, spent decades here. I'm 56 years old. I've seen a lot of America. I was raised when they still taught our history. How we freed ourselves from the oppression of George III. The new and free Republic we created. HOW we became that superpower you call us.
Obama, has introduced nothing here. He's drawn a cleaner line around Socialist Liberals, given us an easier target to eliminate. They grew overconfident after the media created election of this undocumented alien from Kenya. And tipped their hand.
I wouldn't call what is going to happen shortly a "civil war". First of all, there's nothing civil about war. Secondly, it will be brief, and only involves taking a relatively small amount of individuals into custody, trying them for treason, executing them, and burying them in a mass grave near the Washington Monunment, as a reminder to future politicians.
Just because things have slid to this level, doesn't mean We the People are unaware of the nonsense and criminal behavior by the entire Federal Government. It will be rectified. You want a "strong Federal system"? You must be British. We, will have a minimal, weak, Federal system, if at all. All power belongs to the States, and the People.
We don't do Kings and Queens here my friend. We don't do Lords and peasants. The filty rich corporatists may THINK they will succeed here, but they are very wrong.
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Comment number 19.
At 11th Aug 2010, duvinrouge wrote:Given the current political hostilities & the likelihood of a renewed economic downturn, what would happened if Obama got shot tomorrow?
Would the outpouring of sympathy reduce political hostilities or increase them?
As the tea party essentially speaks for the petite-bourgeoisie against financial capitalism & has the sympathy of many ordinary Amercican workers, will it in its desire to fix capitalism actually expose the system to be broken & unfixable?
If US capitalism goes, then so goes world capitalism.
Barbarism for the US & perhaps (attempts at) socialism for some others.
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Comment number 20.
At 24th Jan 2011, tecumseh35 wrote:This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the house rules. Explain.
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