PBR and Tobin: Labour's "core vote" economics?
In the seven-day run-up to the Pre-Budget Report it became clear, from the network-chatter and the briefings and the smile on Gordon Brown's face as he delivered that "playing fields of Eton" jibe, that this would be the "Class War PBR".
Looking back on both the PBR and yesterday's EU summit what is still pretty stunning is how little of a narrative Labour politicians have been able to construct out of the measures taken; how little of a "core vote strategy" has actually yet been crafted to fit atop the various taxes and spending choices announced this week.
Two weeks ago a senior Labour figure told me: "we have no manifesto, no election strategy and no [full list of] candidates". The emergent core vote strategy fills one of those gaps but shows what a big hill Labour has to climb, .
Let's just list the key moves.
1) A fiscally neutral 2010-11 spending year (as predicted on Newsnight). Now it is clear that instead of a slight tightening next year as planned in Budget 09, there is only the withdrawal of the fiscal stimulus. Tightening is, as the (heavily slapped down but correct) FT headline predicted, "deferred".
2) A choice has been made to spend more and tax more than planned in Budget 2009. Long-term the government will rack up more debt than it planned to six months ago. It is, in other words, a tax and spend budget in a recession.
3) 50% of the taxes raised in PBR 2009 will fall on the top 10% of earners.
4) The bank bonus tax, though it will be lucky to raise even the target £500m has caused real outrage, as it was designed to, in the City of London.
5) In or around Westminster, shortly before daylight on the day of the PBR itself, Ed Balls secured a settlement for education that went beyond the initial plan to "ringfence" health and schools. There is a real terms 0.7% increase that was hard fought for and specifically designed to draw a dividing line between the Conservatives and Labour.
6) Gordon Brown then went to Brussels and got the EU heads of government to sign up for a financial transaction tax proposal designed to damp down speculation and raise money for climate change. Yes, pinch yourself, a Tobin-style tax advocated on EU headed notepaper.
The commentariat has noticed this, bigtime.
The Economist's , with Gordon in a climate-camp-style hoodie and the headline "Class Warrior" captures the moment. Likewise Blairite veteran John Rentoul has bemoaned what he sees as a commenting that, as with George Bush Snr, a core vote strategy is a sign of a campaign that is "going down the toilet").
However, there is little sign of a core-vote narrative.
First because the left - the big public sector unions and the TUC as well as the PLP left - are up in arms about the imposition of a real pay cut on public sector workers after 2011, plus the expected cuts in local government, transport, higher education etc. They would be key transmitters of any new core-vote message. One prominent centre-left back bencher told me they felt "totally blindsided" over the PBR.
Second, because the press, on the morrow of the PBR, ignored the "class war" measures and picked up the theme that the NI increase is an attack on middle Britain: the , drawing on deep genetically programmed reserves of fine headline writing, came up with "Labour's war on Workers" and that never to be forgotten Tiger Woods headine. The Conservatives issued their poster, in Labour's class war (compare it to how the sells the PBR).
But third, and most importantly, because no senior Labour politician has yet managed to craft the PBR/EU Summit decisions into a coherent core-vote narrative.
Before, during and after the PBR the Treasury's briefing teams seemed obsessed with denying the minutae of Conservative attack lines, countering the wonkish claims of various think-tanks etc. I am told Ed Balls gave a look of surprise when the 0.7% increase for his department was read out - there was certainly no time for Alistair Darling to include any political side-swipes at the Conservatives about education off the back of the announcement in the PBR speech.
Finally you get Gordon Brown's trip to Brussels to bat for the Tobin Tax: virtually unreported in substance.
I discovered late Thursday evening that there was a chance the EU would sign up to a work-programme on the financial transaction tax and back the proposal in the IMF. The Germans had to fight like crazy to get one half sentence about this written into the Pittsburgh communiqué, so that is a big move (big even if you think it's rhetorical). I reported this on Newsnight that night, and now it has come to pass. But Brown's people downplayed the story. Like his original move at the Edinburgh G20 Finmins summit, it will get lost in the weekend miasma of talent shows and football.
If there is an emerging "core vote" election strategy, then, it is - as the commentators point out - a reversal of 15 years worth of New Labour political instinct.
It is also going to be complicated to achieve. The core vote is in fact bleeding off in two directions: towards the Libdems and Conservatives, SNP and Plaid (mainly from the public sector, metropolitan salariat) and towards the BNP, UKIP, independents and potentially towards the successor to Bob Crow's no2eu.com (mainly from the manual working class in smaller towns). Plus of course towards anti-political abstention driven by the expenses scandal.
For Labour to do a "class war" narrative would require not only a generation of New Labour-trained politicians to sign up to it, red blooded and visceral, but all their mates in the newspapers, their buddies in high-ticket Mayfair PR firms and Soho members clubs etc, plus the wonks in the Millbank wonk-warren and of course the real-life Malcolm Tuckers of this world. I think that last sentence kind of sums up the obstacles to doing it, but watch this space.
Sunday's political programmes are going to be interesting.
Comment number 1.
At 12th Dec 2009, jauntycyclist wrote:as we learn from the iraq inquiry we are much like the people of basra. being given a government of headlines rather than action. they had riots and an insurgency. we will probably just get the bnp and tories.
the greatest good for a state is what promotes its unity. the greatest evil that which promotes disunity. does a focus on class driven headlines likely to promote unity or disunity?
does the war on terror narrative promote unity or disunity?
does the bash the bankers bonus promote unity or disunity?
never mind if the polices are fatuous in themselves an habitual addiction to disunity cannot be good for the nation?
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Comment number 2.
At 12th Dec 2009, streetphotobeing wrote:From The Seventh Letter Plato 360 BC
'(5) As I observed these incidents and the men engaged in public affairs, the laws too and the customs, the more closely I examined them and the farther I advanced in life, the more difficult it seemed to me to handle public affairs aright. For it was not possible to be active in politics without friends and trustworthy supporters; and to find these ready to my hand was not an easy matter, since public affairs at Athens were not carried on in accordance with the manners and practices of our fathers; nor was there any ready method by which I could make new friends. The laws too, written and unwritten, were being altered for the worse, and the evil was growing with startling rapidity. The result was that, though at first I had been full of a strong impulse towards political life, as I looked at the course of affairs and saw them being swept in all directions by contending currents, my head finally began to swim; and, though I did not stop looking to see if there was any likelihood of improvement in these symptoms and in the general course of public life, I postponed action till a suitable opportunity should arise. Finally, it became clear to me, with regard to all existing cornmunities, that they were one and all misgoverned. For their laws have got into a state that is almost incurable, except by some extraordinary reform with good luck to support it. And I was forced to say, when praising true philosophy that it is by this that men are enabled to see what justice in public and private life really is. Therefore, I said, there will be no cessation of evils for the sons of men, till either those who are pursuing a right and true philosophy receive sovereign power in the States, or those in power in the States by some dispensation of providence become true philosophers.'
Reference :
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Comment number 3.
At 12th Dec 2009, barriesingleton wrote:DOES THE MONEY-WIND STILL BLOW FROM AMERICA? THIS MIGHT MATTER.
I am analysing the Obama - Nobel speech. Anyone know who wrote it?
Assuming he concurs with every dot and comma, I am moved to make the following observations:
Barack Obama clearly feels he has a mission to lead the world from the standpoint of a believer in the God of Abraham. But whence accrues his authority?
By dint of money and oratory, billed as democracy, he has arrived as chief of the most (militarily) powerful (Christian) state on the planet. Does this make him the highest arbiter in all matters global?
Abrahamics alone, are not in the majority, being less than one third of the world population while Christian Abrahamics are fewer in number than (for scale) Islamics and Hindu's combined.
Has the 'humble' Obama taken this on board, when he presumes to elevate himself to God-inspired world leadership? By no stretch of the imagination is it democratic!
When Christian men devised their god, they endowed him with a penchant for HUMILITY. In Barack Obama I sense an ego of limitless dimension, that will do such damage to the Needle’s Eye, that no camel will ever, even attempt, to pass that way again, unto the last trump.
Obama spoke of human advance, in his Nobel speech. But in matters of leadership, humanity is still feudal, and charismatic ego-man can never have enough followers - nor followers have enough of 'His' presence. Unfortunately, in feudal hierarchies, no one tells the chief he is deluded . . .
Whither?
Appendix: The Christian God is also anti-violence. Obama's verbal gymnastics, in getting via 'Just War', to 'America can bomb anyone' while still being 'godly', deserve a Nobel Gymnastic Prize. Only Tony Blair has ever 'performed' with such agility.
With such a mind-set, what magic might Magic Obama work in the arena of global money?
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Comment number 4.
At 12th Dec 2009, shireblogger wrote:Paul,
Darling played to five audiences in the PBR : The Bond market , the Bank of England , the electorate , the Opposition, the core vote ( no longer the usual socio-economic groups but the New Labour middle-class).....keep the first on-side, avoid a confidence collapse with the third by avoiding the full economic analysis of cuts and the like , wrong-foot the fourth ( let them lead the way on the pain-story) and be wary of the second. Use the deficit to 'invest for growth'. Let the Tories make the running on 'deficit reduction' and the methods and details. Then, feed off the Tories to construct a narrative to the fifth whilst bashing the banks through levies and Tobin. Plenty of time until the budget and election.
You cant help but wonder, however, that after over a decade of the New labour project whether they are all getting a bit bored and thinking of gap years, global appointments, and the life hereafter!
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Comment number 5.
At 13th Dec 2009, gnuneo wrote:it means electioneering. NuLabour has spotted that its policies are no longer being swallowed by the People. They are now creating social-democratic policies that a year ago would have guaranteed the election - almost. But no-one in their right minds is going to believe that Brown et al are actually genuine in this new direction - just as no-one can seriously imagine that a return to Thatcherite Monetarism (Camoron's position, judging by the comments of his team) will do anything than what it did last time - massively deepen the recession, savagely increase poverty and misery, and give the ruling class a chance to play hard-ball with the majority populace, in some weird true class-war.
simple question - if the current Labour party split, and NuLabour stood as a seperate party - who would vote for them?
Labour, under perhaps Claire Short for instance, would survive politically - almost certainly would grow in electability - and would prevent any slide towards the BNP, or at least slow it. Decent policies by a decent leader - THAT is a good goal of Labour, and why the SNP has grown in popularity in Scotland.
that is also why the complete lack of narrative from NuLabour - this change (necessary), is as difficult for them as it would be for the Tories, both to do - and to "sell".
interesting PBR however. It even looks at first glance as though some parts of the UK political class are possibly beginning to listen to the People! :o
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Comment number 6.
At 13th Dec 2009, JunkkMale wrote:Finally you get Gordon Brown's trip to Brussels to bat for the Tobin Tax: virtually unreported in substance.
Just wanted to preserve that. I guess one solution to the new commitment to the delivery of watertight oversight is to render inconvenient aspects of the narrative invisible.
Meanwhile, I'm still pondering ex PM Blair saying that he got us into something on a pretty dodgy premise, but if that one hadn't done the trick he'd just have gone and found another.
These days that might also have found itself unreported in substance, too.
ps: Listening to Andrew Marr 'interview' Boris Johnson as I write. As one less than thrilled already with the ratings addiction that guides guest selection (especially the Newsnight 'twofer'), I found this from the host telling:
'We didn't invite you on to have you be nice bout David Cameron'
Evidently other agendas at play then?
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Comment number 7.
At 13th Dec 2009, barriesingleton wrote:"AND THAT'S THE RIGHT THING TO DO" (#6)
never ind Boris being nice about Cameron - didn't Gabbling Ed make Waffling Boris look statesmanlike!
In passing: have you noticed the Balls duo cap their utterances with 'and that's the right thing to do?'
Scene: the Balls' home - breakfast. "Darling." Yes darling?" Pass the toast - it's the right thing to do." "Will you be talking all over Marr's questions?" "of course - it's the right thing to do!"
Exeunt.
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Comment number 8.
At 13th Dec 2009, stevie wrote:Hutton///whitewash, Butler.....Whitewash...Chilcott...whitey again..we don't do TRUTH in this country, never did...never will
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Comment number 9.
At 13th Dec 2009, GeeDeeSea wrote:Correction: "Darling." Yes darling?" First pass the toast - it's the right thing to do."
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Comment number 10.
At 13th Dec 2009, JunkkMale wrote:7. At 10:17am on 13 Dec 2009, barriesingleton wrote:
"AND THAT'S THE RIGHT THING TO DO" (#6)
I did notice he resisted Mr. Marr's seductive lure to 'Lessons have been learned', perhaps sensing that in his current role that might have been a stretch too far.
Really, someone should archive these oft-trotted treasures.
Frankly, most are gifts for the Conservative election poster campaign... 'Labour in their own words. And now... Deeds'
Maybe the political facts are not settled yet.
But I am sure we can expect to be well 'assisted' to the 'right' conclusions from 'complementary' editorial skilled in the arts of 'reflecting the orthodoxy', 'ensuring a fair representation of events', 'enhancing the narrative', 'interpreting events and (though not used by a ³ÉÈË¿ìÊÖ employee, responded to) 'helping with emerging truths'. Plus 'Not manipulating data in a bad way' and 'ensuring 'watertight oversight' (by shutting down for a few days when things go off message because the ³ÉÈË¿ìÊÖ doesn't 'deal' in rumour or speculation, apparently), to which I can now add 'preparing our audiences':
/blogs/theeditors/2009/12/bbc_news_coverage_of_copenhage.html
Our job in the ³ÉÈË¿ìÊÖ newsroom has been to report on the build-up to the summit and to prepare our audiences to make sense of whatever happens. Now we aim to interpret the various negotiating positions and - if a treaty is agreed - to judge what it means for all of us.
Bless.
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Comment number 11.
At 13th Dec 2009, Jericoa wrote:Interesting times, lots of intertwined posts on here, BUT ALL AT ROOT different manifestations of the same thing as expressed by #2.
An EU backed Tobin tax, which has the legs to go global is definately the most positive of steps forward in terms of re-assigning value away from pointless number manipulation back towards 'real value' hopefully manifested as creativity in developing sustainable technologies.
It is a testament to how dumb labour believe the electorate are and how arrogant in their belief that they can manipulate the election that so little was made of this. It is almost invisible in fact.
Wouldent it be nice if a major political party stopped the business of politics and started the business of leadership. This nation has suffered greatly under the stewardship of the 'lawyer political class'. They clearly have the same attitude as lawyers in terms of not allowing morality to 'cloud' their defence of 'the party' WITH THE OCCASIONAL EXCEPTION LIKE ROBIN COOK.
I also welcome the growing disgust at the antics of Tony Blair, the brightest 'lawyer politician' of his generation (but not in a nice way)who may yet find himself in the Hague, to hope George W Bush would be there with him is alas, I fear, too much to hope for.
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Comment number 12.
At 13th Dec 2009, jauntycyclist wrote:can't bear to watch Marr these days. bit too smug/creepy.
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Comment number 13.
At 13th Dec 2009, watriler wrote:Core vote strategy? - It could be they are just confused and desperate. The only detectable class war has been waged on parts of the working and benefit class through compulsive privatisation, toadying to the City, smothering claimants with exceptional bureaucracy, loading the tax system with regressive taxation, commercialisation of public services, fighting unnecessary wars. Unfortunately there little alternative for those who wish to see a fairer and more equal society.
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Comment number 14.
At 13th Dec 2009, barriesingleton wrote:WAVE TO UNCLE PLATO EVERYBODY! (#2)
At the risk of repeating myself, I just don't think we are hard wired to make any sort of fist of life in an interglacial period.
Since Greece toyed with democracy, we have added nothing except technology and marketing, in a global context. Man - the individual - is still juvenile and gullible/devious. We have a triumph of clever over wise.
It is over 100 years since Freud; and a lot of further understanding since. What have we got - nihilistic mayhem.
Obama rules the world, and Blair is his self-appointed Pope. If Terry Pratchet wrote that, it would be beyond even HIS readership to swallow.
We are dominated by men of FAITH. Those who have faith, are unable to see that their faith is self-generated; further, they fail to see it is a way of dealing with weakness; they are holding on to nurse.
As we wave, so shall we drown, but in human madness, not rising seas.
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Comment number 15.
At 13th Dec 2009, Jericoa wrote:No 14
''A triumph of clever over wise''
Reminded me of a quote.
''Westerners have cold calculating minds..Africans experience life''.
It was said by an African (I forget who) in defence of that continent's global position, neither position is ideal but there is a compromise to be made between those two perspectives...the home of 'the wise' perhaps.
The clever have had the upper hand for a while but these things have a habit of turning full circle when things are out of balance.
I suspect we will all be 'experiencing a bit more life' in the coming years no matter how clever we are.
The 'wise' need not concern themselves with either of those positions of course, because they know that they are one and the same....
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Comment number 16.
At 14th Dec 2009, JunkkMale wrote:Just in on twitter (no reason to doubt it): UK's Miliband: "This is not just about getting any old deal. We want an ambitious outcome that respects & understands the science."
So long, one presumes, that it is settled science, peer reviewed in Whitehall, and no saboteurs masquerading as folk with simple questions allowed near.
Just watching the news this morning. A nice young man from one of those proliferating agencies/quangos/think tanks/advocacy groups being 'interviewed' (as much as a teleprompter can) to confirm pretty much everything I learned, as has the ³ÉÈË¿ìÊÖ, Hilary Benn will be sharing later today.
There can be no other views on this, as we wouldn't want any old press release masquerading as news.
It was funny, if ironic, when this champion of restraint shared that he had garnered much of his insights on the state of coral reefs when... flying to visit all the country offices around the world.
Bless. And unique that this was also missed by two presenters whose tans suggest that a family Xmas might be on the slopes again. To study the effects of AGW, no doubt.
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Comment number 17.
At 14th Dec 2009, barriesingleton wrote:PROTOCOL - AND OVERHEATED SPHERES (#16)
The only Coral you can see from Newbury, is in the precinct - looking as 'healthy' as ever. We gamble - therefore we are . . .
MY most recent information is that the Senior Ignorami will soon be journeying, to the New Bethlehem, carrying gifts of Bold, Inconsequence and Der? Apparently, while the planet degrades around us, protocol is alive and well. The sheer expertise of Milibands-multiple and Benn-bountiful, will be CONSUMMATELY TRUMPED by the arrival of Obama, Brown et al, and there shall be signs and portents, issuing from overpriced pens, and glory shall shine all about.
Hallelujah!
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Comment number 18.
At 14th Dec 2009, supersnapshot wrote:1) I wouldn't bet on Obama agreeing to a Tobin tax. In any case the tax would have to be levied at sufficient rate to make the unwanted transactions desist - at which point it is no longer a tax, but a regulation.
If we are to have taboo in the operation in global financial market activity then we will require explicit global agreement.
2) Class War - hilarious, bring back 'On the Buses' and 'Love thy Neighbour' too.
The trouble with definig classes begins as soon as we deal with the actual material in front of us ( hence Plato's frustration ) - Labour M.P's bell tower ?
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Comment number 19.
At 14th Dec 2009, stanilic wrote:There are only two classes; those who govern and those who are governed. It helps both if they are not too far apart in both sentiment and reward. In this country they have never been so far apart in my six decades of experience.
Labout will be ill-served if they try to trigger a class war for electoral purposes given that their supporting clientele now comes from the more upholstered end of society.
The days of a career in make-work are almost over in the UK but no ruling class ever gave up their privileges without a struggle. The simple truth is that the country just cannot afford all these quangos, consultants, pressure groups, think-tanks and goodness knows what else. They are a product of bad government and boy, have we had a lot of that lately.
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Comment number 20.
At 14th Dec 2009, Jericoa wrote:#17
The Africans have pulled out of the Copenhagen facade parade!
Halleluja!
They no longer want to play the game of the cold and calculating manipulati.
They know that humans will start to fight each other en masse for the limited resources available long before climate change causes us any problems. We use finite fossil energy for everything essential from fertilizers and pharmaceuticals to transport and energy. Humans do not have a good track record in international relations when it comes to protecting essential supply lines.
Our 'leaders' (ha!) call for 'the restoration of growth' on one hand to save the 'global economy' while simultaneously declaring 'growth' is killing the planet and ignoring population as the root cause because that is well..too sensitive a subject which may cause cultural offence!!
Nobody in power is offering a real answer or a real vision. We are being exposed as a species as being rather pathetic stuck between the shifting fetters of our material desires and our own arrogance.
Don't come back to the table Africa, don't let the manipulati have their moment.
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Comment number 21.
At 14th Dec 2009, barriesingleton wrote:MANIPULATI! (#20)
All very well, Jericoa, but when the African posturati get back home, the 'Pretty Fly' invaders (Duke of E rhyming slang) will have nicked all the silver - and gold, and bauxite, and agricultural land, and timber, and water and sand and bedrock and fishing rights and sky-access (this is addictive) while they were out.
Confucious he say: "They all look the same to me".
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Comment number 22.
At 18th Dec 2009, stayingcool wrote:Paul
Granted there's a bit of movement there, but you STILL dont really grasp it do you?
In your last big sentence - you name all the obstacles, in terms of all the smarty pants that would have to learn a new toon.
Yes its a daunting list. and we know how much against the grain it is for them too, privileged an privatised darlings that they generally are.
But maybe it would show the real mountain to climb, or maybe it would be a start in climbing it, to properly name and frame what has to be overcome. You express it in terms of 'relatively ' surface rhetoric, but it is the deep ideological framework of single track liberalisation, and its pragmatic manifestation of STILL guiding every policy decision, as well of course as its key 'motivators' in the form of corporate lobbying.
Of course there's no core strategy - you cant dissimulate some class war around this elephant - it is the class war, for the other side!
Perhaps you dont actually understand this liberalisation key framework yourself, but if you did grasp it, you would better explain the story pared down to this fundamental, than all the running around the houses.
Just give people the straight story, for goodness sake.
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Comment number 23.
At 18th Dec 2009, stayingcool wrote:Maybe I misunderstood you. Maybe this was only supposed to be an overview of the bllsht, maybe that sort of overview (I wont call it analysis, it is more purely descriptive) has some value. However I am still concerned that this is a shallow distraction without reference to the context of what is actually going on.
Some handy hints in that direction:
- labour standards set back 50 years or more in a year, with no chance of ever regaining those standards, even in any upturn, with the structures in place for unlimited foriegn labour entry. I have not seen any reference even to the first part of this, granted the second part is ever so touchy (at least until you lose your job to cheap foreign labour).
Worth pointing out.
-everything has been liberalised, and any govt measures on anything continue in that path, and never, ever contradict it.
Worth pointing out.
So - sorry if you did just mean to consider the phoney rhetoric, but not sorry for pointing out that this doesn't do much if not positioned within the real goings on.
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