The real weakness in US foreign policy
The standard conservative line on President Barack Obama's foreign policy is that he is a weak pushover. One of the usual liberal ripostes is better that the USA have a leader who tries to gain agreement among allies that a unilateralist who goes around the world picking fights.
In between these polarised views, there have been steps by the new administration that can be cited by either side in the debate. Establishing diplomatic ties with Syria, reaching out to Iran, seeking deep cuts in nuclear weapons with Russia, conciliating China, or insisting that Israel adhere to its promise under the international road map to stop building settlements in the occupied territories.
So far both sides in this argument tend to set these decisions in the context of the president's personality or political philosophy. The real weakness though in American foreign policy now derives from economics.
Whether the US had elected Obama or McCain some large scale belt tightening was inevitable in the wake of the financial crisis. The Pentagon in particular was bound to feel the pinch.
President Obama kept Robert Gates, the Bush administration's defence chief, in place and John McCain probably would have done too. The need to trim hundreds of billions out of defence spending is the most obvious symptom of America's weakness.
The US relationship with Russia has been soothed by the need to cut strategic nuclear programmes and missile defence ones - both horribly expensive. China too can read the writing on the wall, that the US no longer feels it can afford strategic competition.
As the US tries to stimulate its own economy and bail out Wall Street, the growing mountain of national debt cuts the ground from aid programmes - soft power as well as hard. The White House has characterised its policy as multi-lateralist but so far multi-polar might be a better word.
Why multi-polar? Because in these difficult economic times western democracies are very reluctant to accept American leadership, for example on Afghanistan. The scope for multi-lateralism is strictly limited.
On the other hand, big powers such as China and Russia with their UN Security Council veto, are being conciliated. As the G20 becomes more important in international economic affairs, countries like India and Brazil are also gaining in status.
In the multi-polar world, America must concede influence in order to reach an international consensus on anything from Iran, to climate change or global finance. It looks less like a multi-lateral Woodstock and more like the 19th Century world of ruthless realpolitik.
So Poland or the Czech republic - both of which had agreed to accept US missile interceptors until the programme was shelved last week - got trampled as Washington changed course to save money and conciliate Moscow. Traditional US allies like South Korea or Taiwan can expect short shrift too, as the US cedes growing regional influence to China.
The only real alternative to this multi-polar, diminished US was the path of diplomatic isolation and maintaining huge debt-funded military programmes - the Bush alternative in other words.
As last year's election emphatically showed, the American public had lost its appetite for that option. So it's easy to portray the new administration as weak, but really it simply has to accept the waning power of the US.
Comment number 1.
At 22nd Sep 2009, alkybar wrote:I think President Obama has to be commended for this.
Whilst the Bush years showed the power or might of the US, which had to be shown in light of 9/11, the way his administration went about this got a lot of peoples backs up and could have been done better.
Obama has a lot of bridges to rebuild - good luck to him.
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Comment number 2.
At 22nd Sep 2009, MacScroggie wrote:Bang on the money, Mark !
President O may have aspirations, but he also appreciates the harsh realities of the present financial crisis, and the benfits of national appeasement.
Happily the days of that megalomaniac, George W, are past and are never likely to recur.
However, much has to be done by the US to woo the rest of the world back into a state of at least guarded co-operation, before things can move forward internationally.
Unfortunately, your standard US citizen still regards himself as a member of a superior race, and expects other nations to behave accordingly.
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Comment number 3.
At 22nd Sep 2009, barriesingleton wrote:HOW TO COVER UP THE DEMOLITION OF THREE (3) TOWERS (#1)
When you have just blown the safe in your own bank, it is quite a good strategy to stand outside pointing and shouting: "Thats him - shoot!"
While the 'forces of good' are chasing ghostly-robbers, they are not scrutinising you.
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Comment number 4.
At 23rd Sep 2009, bookhimdano wrote:why do some keep calling the western countries deep in debt like the usa and uk as 'the rich countries'. why is that? the usual financial illiteracy?
who is the stronger those depending on debt to survive like the uk or those lending for profit like china?
the real wars at the moment are in the currency market and commodity market. the usa is sinking the dollar till its quoted in seashells and china are not even floating theirs so leaching jobs and wealth away from those who do like the uk. China is using their financial strength locking in commodities to exclusive use by china. which does not look good for any recovery.
all the other stuff is just unpicking the neocon hallucinations by giving those still dreaming a good slap?
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Comment number 5.
At 1st Oct 2009, KennethM wrote:I don’t think the ³ÉÈË¿ìÊÖ should have an opinion on this matter. It should go back to neutral reporting.
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