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On the recession I think bookhimdano said the other day some of the Lehmans CDS were due on Tuesday.

Did it go off smoothly? How at risk are we from Credit Default Swaps and other derivatives as the "sting in the tail". The figures do seem to be truly startling.

Also we were being told the Asian economies would dampen the recession - but that now seems not to be the case. In the space of a month.

Is there a risk that "economic shock waves" will bounce about the globe inhibiting recovery in any region for some time?

more financial puns

The Down Jones

Goldman Sacks

MoreGone Stanley


Will there be spangly suits tonight?

'Things like knitting and so on are very important and very English' Wear an Icelandic
sweater, Gavin, in protest!

I would post a political joke but the trouble with those is that they normally get elected as London mayor...


Ha,ha, very original...

I really do think we're talking ourself into a worse recession to a very large extent as well. OK so 2 quarters of negative growth, but after more than a decade of massive growth, is that really such a big deal?

The way things are reported really do not help. For example take today's figures on retail sales. They are still growing relatively strongly but anybody would think they have fallen listening to reports. If the headline was something like "Retail growth resilient despite talk of tough times", and all stories were reported with such a degree of 'optimism' then the recession wouldn't turn out to be half as bad in my opinion.

And I've been laughing at this all day, it's absolutely hilarious:

1. on lehman cds - they say that went ok. It was also about the time when several banks around the world [Swiss, France, Far east etc] got big injections of cash. Coincidence?


bloomberg is usually a good place to look for that kind of stuff.

the latest problem is that Libor has become irrelevant because libor represents the rate banks lend between each other. At the moment they are all taking from the Central Banks. So its not easy to see how libor can represent anything until the central banks stop funding.

further as one market maker said

....Trading volumes are in almost terminal decline with the exchanges indicating that turnover this month may be the lowest for many years. On the 3mth interest future markets there used to be thousands of contracts on the bid/offer spread. Nowadays you are quite likely to see just 20 to 50 on either side. Two years ago a sell of 3000 Eurodollar futures would have been immaterial, today you might actually move the ‘Global’ Libor fix for the day with such a sum......

My target is still a 50% drop in the market as 50% of the economy was funded on short term money which was finished. So we will see consolidations in all sectors of industry as that 'deleveraging' [going cold turkey from the credit 'high'] goes on.

It's USA election season:

*because the country is now awash with a swollen dysgenic ethnic underclass and they'll vote for us because they like rhetoric.

BIPOLAR SOCIETY

NickThornsby (#4) "I really do think we're talking ourself into a worse recession to a very large extent as well. OK so 2 quarters of negative growth, but after more than a decade of massive growth, is that really such a big deal?"

Of what though? Debt? Fantasy/spin?

What people were talked into over the past decade was a) debt and b) over-enthusiasm based on castles-in-the-air. This made some people a lot of money. There's along history to this.

#6 bookhimdano

Ta!

On the Craftsmanship quote, if you are knitting Newsnight, could the end of the quote on British Craftsmanship include crafting new financial systems such a banks?

On the Craftsmanship quote, if you are knitting Newsnight, could the end of the quote on British Craftsmanship include crafting new financial systems such a banks?

And on what next suggestions, we do not need a 5 point plan, but just about on everything, plainly BACK TO BASICS, REAL BASICS...

5) Nick Thomsby

Yes Yes Thank you so much

Oh just another look then.

6)Book Him Dano

CDS on Tuesday. What happened that day? What was in the news?

Letter to the Times....Yacht....

Take your point about cash to banks. But also £billions had already been made available prior. Was any moved, lined up to cover that already.

Don't know much about CDS apart from your posts and reading up the last week.

Most bizarre at present I see them as oxidative phosphorylation in cytochrome chains.



I know nothing about economics so have to learn and relate things to what I know.

JadedJean No. 8. Of course it's been a ridiculous error to allow house price inflation on the level we have seen it, and we have seen what bad lending does in recent weeks. But we mustn't forget that economics is fundamentally about PSYCHOLOGY. If people think they'll have less money in the near future, they spend less and save more, which then compounds any existing problems and makes them much worse.

As economics is so psychologically based therefore, it is simply implausible of anyone to say that pessimism in the way that these things are reported doesn't make things worse. Much worse in my opinion.

The way all the (one-time) great British institutions have been broken up is through buying out the top people (who should have known better) and recruiting staff who weaken the foundations. Under such circumstances, integrity demands that one sacrifices short term self-interest for one's profession's survival. Today, clearly, integrity is in very short supply.

Newsnight staff, please note.

The Independent and Michael Crick are complaining that Cameron accepted free flights from Matthew Freud and that he visited Rupert Murdoch.

Tony Blair made private visits Rupert Murdoch on numerous occasions and screwed the tax payer for the price of the flights every time.

REALITY IS AUSTERE

NickThornsby (#13) "But we mustn't forget that economics is fundamentally about PSYCHOLOGY. If people think they'll have less money in the near future, they spend less and save more, which then compounds any existing problems and makes them much worse."

I'm not so sure. We now know that Classic Economics is not rational. What matters is behaviour not psychology. Where Kahneman went (egregiously in my view) wrong was in 'translating' behavioural (Matching and ) research into more popular cognitive psychology. The latter, alas, is the stuff of 'la-la land make-believe', i.e. deception/spin, not reality.

One should not be distracted by 'negative reinforcement' i.e. escapism. It may look like a good idea but it can never last.

I sincerely hope that we're finally coming to the end of an ethereal era of Kabbalahist cognition and back to more sober times where behaviour matters, dull as that may be.

INTEGRITY IN SHORT SUPPLY (#14)

And wisdom an alien concept JJ. Not to worry. All the signs are that something cosmic is brewing. I have a stockpile of Cave Painting Kits; I will be a shell millionaire.

How about this for the quote of the day - from Gordon Brown's
Honorary Advisor Sir Alan Greenspan who used to chair the US Federal Reserve and who was lionised by G. Brown in Kirkcaldy?


Congressman Henry Waxman "My question is simple. Were you wrong?"

Greenspan "Partially ... I made a mistake in presuming that the self-interest of organisations, specifically banks, is such that they were best capable of protecting shareholders and equity in the firms ... I discovered a flaw in the model that I perceived is the critical functioning structure that defines how the world works. I had been going for 40 years with considerable evidence that it was working exceptionally well. The overall view I take of regulation is, I took an oath of office when I became Federal Reserve chairman. I'm here to uphold the laws of the land passed by Congress, not my own predilections."

Powerful piece from Bob Holman in today's Herald on fuel poverty in which he argues that the folk who caused the financial crisis should be kicked out of Brown's National Economic Council and replaced with experts on fuel poverty. Holman is a Labour supporter - in Glasgow East
- but credits the SNP with making the running on the
crucial issue of fuel poverty.

But to get back to Mandy and the yacht: have you worked out what is the nature of this "story" yet?

This morning's Guardian seems to give it a few more Russian
legs ........... discussions over
borsch in Moscow restaurants
do not necessarily land folk in
the soup.

But in the wake of all this turmoil some oligarchs are
having to cut back as well?

So what happens to assets
if they are forced to sell? I
noticed an interesting FT
article earlier in the week
suggesting that the Russian
state might step in to take
back some of the companies
that Boris Yeltsin privatised?

That might be an interesting angle to pursue with Mandy?
According to The Scotsman
yesterday he has also been
commenting on banks - and
saying that the bailout dosh
from Government will only be
available if HBOS and Lloyds
TSB merge as planned .......

But more and more people in Scotland are now suggesting
that the bailout was a game-
changer and Bank of Scotland
could now survive on its own.

The original deal, remember,
was brokered after Sir Victor Blank of Lloyds TSB lobbied
Gordon Brown on a plane. A
waiver of normal competition
rules ensued to allow TSB to
make its pitch for HBOS. The
Office of Fair Trading is due
to present a report on what
this means for competition I
gather later today - but for some reason this is not being published?

Excellent to see my ambition to see Steve Smith becoming Britain's answer to Jon ''Daily Show' Stewart is taking shape....

I have been saying for ages that it is inevitable that at some point population capping will be needed (climate change/resources/quality of life/ecosystem impacts etc) and that there needs to be a long debate well before that about how you achieve that goal as there are many ethical and social issues.

In case there is any doubt I am not one of the vile racists that posts on here. Holocaust Denial is the main indicator of their pretentious intellectual powers.

Anyway the ³ÉÈË¿ìÊÖ reports:

"Immigration minister Phil Woolas defends his pledge that the British population would not be allowed to exceed 70 million".

Its probably the case that he is referring just to immigration but it is also clear that the population is going to grow regardless. If so then the 70 million figure is a red herring on his part. Otherwise how does he achieve that as it is probably growing despite immigration.

So my point is if population control is to be considered it needs a far more considered and balanced debate.

Instead we get the Labour identity crisis of what are they and what do they stand for.

Racists need not respond.

JUST BECAUSE ONE REALLY BELIEVES SOMETHING IT DOESN'T MEAN IT'S TRUE

thegangofone (#22) As 99.x% of London's population growth over the next 30 years is projected to be in BME groups (Lord Mayor of London's Office), and throughout the EU the indigenous population is well below replacement level, how are light-touch Liberal-Democratic governments across the EU going to 'cap' population growth? What's more, note that most of that BME growth will be Muslim, and that Muslims tend to be anti-usury, a little 'sexist' and antipathetic to other 'free-market anarcho-capitalist' values.

Incidentally, you might also find it helpful to look up what Cattell once referred to as and ponder and especially the articles by Rushton and Jensen, and Gottfredson

There are lawful statistical relationships to be grasped here, and they have predictable socio-economic consequences.

#23 JadedJean

There is something about "racists need not reply" that you don't understand.

Also for the record you don't seriously think I am going to follow up suggestions from somebody whose credibility is demonstrated by their belief in Holocaust Denial!

I have said before that you don't believe it and you know that I know you don't believe it. It should be criminalized as in Germany and Austria.

When somebody bangs on about Zimbabweans not being ready for democracy and demonstrates an unbalanced hatred of Jews almost every day I tend to reach for the sick bucket rather than consider spurious statistics from an exceptionally dubious source.

You aren't worth a minutes consideration - although its nice to make sure that everybody else who visits the page knows what you stand for!

Gangofone #22

"population capping" eh? And how would you spell that? E-u-g-e...

Even you admit it HAS to happen because if it doesn't then down the collective plug hole we all go.

Sometimes we just have to let go of our cherished beliefs and admit to the truth - even if we don't like it very much.

I know you already censor posts that are offensive, defamatory, libellous and depraved. I wonder if you've ever considered proscribing posts that are mind-numbingly boring? Or applying a Three Strikes and You're Out policy to non sequiteurs?

MODERN 'RATIONALITY'

Student: 'I believe the capital of France is Berlin'.

Teacher: 'No, that's false, the capital of France is Paris'.

Student: 'I was telling you what I believe'.

Teacher: 'I know, I was correcting you'.

Student: 'Who are you to tell me what to think! I'm entitled to my beliefs'.

Teacher: 'I'm a geographer'.

Student: 'Geographist more like! What's more, I don't like the colour of your shirt so I won't be listening to anything else you tell me either'.

POT/KETTLIST NEO REVISIONISM

Teacher: 'Hello, is that the thought police?
I want to report a case of Geographerism.'

I have been prejudiced since the day I was born. Let he or she (or none) who is without prejudice, cast the first self-deluded 'stone'.

Two dyslexics were skiing down a hill.

When they got to the bottom one said to the other. "That was good zagging and zigging."

The other said "No I am sure it is zigging and zagging."

"In that case we will ask someone" said the first.

They waited until a man came walking by.

"Excuse me did you see us sking, were we zigging and zagging or zagging and zigging".

"Don't ask me", he said, "I'm a tobogganist".

"In that case can I have 20 Benson and Hedges."

DYSLEXISIST?

Oh Celtic! I think you are on a slippery slope there.