Prospects for Wednesday 10 September
With prospects for tonight's programme, here is today's output editor, Kavita Puri.
Good Morning
We have a film from Guardian filmmaker Sean Smith who has returned from spending two months embedded with the US 101st Airborne in the Shia areas of Sadr City and Shula. Mark Urban is in Baghdad. He's available for a 2-way to make his assessment of the surge and the implications of the 8,000 US troop withdrawal following Bush's announcement yesterday.
After months of negotiations the government and energy companies should seal the deal on the energy package - let's see if we can find out the full details by tonight.
Am interested in Lehman brothers. The South Korean state bank - Korean development bank - has said this morning it's abandoned its negotiations into buying a stake. Lehman has brought forward its quarterly results to today. We could look at the anatomy of the crisis, which bit of the bank is in trouble, who may invest now, and what the US government could do. Paul Mason is in Washington this evening.
Other things: Harman will say at the TUC conference that social class is still the most important dividing line in British society - could be a good discussion point. Or is there a good talking point on CERN? We should watch Zimbabwe and negotiations between Zanu PF and the MDC.
What else would you like to do?
Kavita
Comment number 1.
At 10th Sep 2008, barriesingleton wrote:CAUSE FOR CON-CERN
I have tried to bring the Big Bang's moribund status to the notice of ³ÉÈË¿ìÊÖ and a range of its pundits with no success.
Here is a quote from outside BB orthodoxy:
"Critics point to the demands of funding as the primary culprit. Recently, dozens of top scientists, including Halton Arp, Eric J. Lerner, and Michael Ibison authored an open letter to the scientific community, arguing that the dominance of big bang theory "rests more on funding decision than on the scientific method." They wrote: "Today, virtually all financial and experimental resources in cosmology are devoted to big bang studies. Funding comes from only a few sources, and all the peer-review committees that control them are dominated by supporters of the big bang. As a result, the dominance of the big bang within the field has become self-sustaining, irrespective of the scientific validity of the theory." (Jun 2005)
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Comment number 2.
At 10th Sep 2008, JadedJean wrote:WHY NO MEA CULPA?
SES and IQ are hightly correlated, and from research, it looks more and more like SES is a function of IQ (something Jensen and then Herrnstein and Murray pointed out long ago) SES is the dependent rather than indepedent variable. That being so, and if the heritability of IQ is indeed as high as 0.8 (80%) and the birth rate in lower SES groups is higher than it is in the higher SES groups (and official registration of births figures say it is) what can Harman, New Labour or anyone else do about social class still being the most important dividing line in British society apart from socially engineering the birth rate, which in fact they have been doing, albeit in completely the wrong direction through a) uncontrolled low-skilled immigration b) sending even more of the brighter females into higher education for longer so they delay having children and c) encouring equality in pay and other conditions so that more women go out to work?
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Comment number 3.
At 10th Sep 2008, brossen99 wrote:Some of you may have seen various articles on alleged " eco driving " and not being a trained automotive engineer like myself probably taken it all in like a toilet. Perhaps the greatest sin in the advice given is to change up at 2500 Rpm ( 2000 in a diesel ) which is completely misleading. An internal combustion engine is at its most efficient at the Rpm where maximum torque occurs. This can be gleaned from the owners handbook and the economy trick is to select a gear which comes close to the said Rpm at your desired target speed. An engine will " sup juice like a fish " at an RPM significantly below maximum torque whilst at moderate Rpm above maximum torque Rpm fuel consumption does not increase significantly.
The theory that creeping around saves fuel is complete nonsense in my experience, its all about work done times efficiency times time taken.
The real measure of fuel consumption is grammes per kilowatt hour not Mpg, the longer it takes you to get there the more fuel you will use. Sir Frank Whittle knew this when he perceived the jet engine. It works out that the most efficient average speed for a modern motor vehicle is close to 60 Mph, after that air resistance starts to come into play.
However, dependent on vehicle design air resistance can fall as the vehicle goes faster and builds up its own near perfect streamlining so true 70 on the motorway is not an efficiency problem in such a case. ( most car speedo's read 10% fast. If you need to calibrate your speedo follow a lorry on the motorway at a accurately limited fuel inefficient 56 Mph. Fuel consumption for 38 tonne tankers running from Lancashire to Glasgow and back on nights increased from 9 Mpg to 7 Mpg on the introduction of speed limiters during the 1990s.
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Comment number 4.
At 10th Sep 2008, thegangofone wrote:On the Searchlight anti-fascist and anti racist magazine website you can read all kinds of things.
Theres
"...we explain why the BNP are the same old nazis they always were. We broadcast a video, shot only four years ago, which shows leading BNP officials singing racist songs and giving a Nazi salute. We reveal the nazi and terrorist links of the BNP leadership and we explain, in the "Us and Them" section, just why the BNP does not stand in the great British tradition of tolerance, equality and compassion.
In a new section, we also reveal the nazi links of BNP leader Nick Griffin.
The BNP is dedicated to imposing apartheid-style rule in Britain. It wants to create a system that is based on the nonsense that white people are superior to all others. Black and Asian people would become second-class citizens under the law. ".
I like Searchlight
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Comment number 5.
At 10th Sep 2008, bookhimdano wrote:social class?
rather the divide between those who live on earned income and unearned income. 80% of the wealth goes to those 20% [the oligarchs] who live on unearned income.
for those interested in the political economy of Fed moves there is an interesting article here that explains the link between the usa, asia and raising money for the war through housing backed loans. which ties into Lehman.
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Comment number 6.
At 10th Sep 2008, thegangofone wrote:On Iraq I am interested to know how likely Maliki is to renegotiate the oil and reconstruction contracts when things are more stable and Iraq is less dependent on the US. Thats why the cynic in me wonders whether things will become more stable under Cheney.
On Zim Mugabe seems to be holding out for something but I fail to see what as he is boxed in in term of options.
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Comment number 7.
At 10th Sep 2008, Bill Bradbury wrote:As soon as I read the Lehman problem, put it down to my scynism, but are they hoping that the US Government will bail them out as they did the "Two Macs"?
Seems starnge that all these announcements on losses are coming all at once.
These are the people that got us into this mess and reaped in the profits and bonuses in the "days of plenty", now they are expecting us and the Government(s) to bail them out.
I hope Newsnight uncovers whatever is going on but to me the whole things stinks.
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Comment number 8.
At 10th Sep 2008, JunkkMale wrote:3. At 1:53pm on 10 Sep 2008, brossen99
Some of you may have seen various articles on alleged "eco driving"
Times - Eco-safe driving: more lessons, more money - (where's Chloe_F when you need her?)
Sadly I seem no longer capable of surprise. But I had thought there was a slim chance that as it was being done in its name, while the safe bit was a bit lost in the wash there might have been a better enviROI at least.
But no, just a steeper slope for more practical, cost-effective green advocacy to surmount (in neutral of course) with an already eco-weary and jaded (sorry, Jean) public.
I await a ³ÉÈË¿ìÊÖ moppet standing on a highway overpass chirping '..and it saves the planet, too!' at the first possible news break.
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Comment number 9.
At 10th Sep 2008, bookhimdano wrote:I hope Newsnight uncovers whatever is going on but to me the whole things stinks....
the market oracle page spells it all out.
There are a bunch of economists called the chicago school who job it is to sell financial oligarchy as public democracy,
greenspan doing what adam smith would call 'double accounting' and then admitting he [and eddie george] didn't understand what the finance boys did with it,
politicians receiving campaign funds from freddie and fannie who were hiding enron style accounting,
a need to raise money for war which they did through mortgage backed debt
a need to calm the asian countries who have bought that debt and now believe it could become worthless,
an election,
a desire to keep hiding things [and so not reveal true losses] and so dump it on the democrats when they take office [most think they will] and blame them,
its no secret in the markets what is going on. which is why they believe we could not only be in for a recession but perhaps the biggest depression in western civilisation.
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Comment number 10.
At 10th Sep 2008, JadedJean wrote:bookhimdano (#9) Another reason for high levels of immigration into the UK (and rest of Europe) given the low indigenous birth rates? More opportunity to indebt and 'make' money?
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Comment number 11.
At 10th Sep 2008, stayingcool wrote:RE - class
New Labour (or are they just called Labour in the week of the TUC conference) should not be allowed to get away with 'social mobility' rubbish.
For people to be 'upwardly mobile' it would entail others slipping down - common sense, but no one is spelling that out, and indeed Blair definitively excluded the idea of anything negatively affecting the privileged.
So the result of this conning, empty rhetoric has been - no change.
Much more useful to utilise the equality measuring, showing that inequality is now on a par with the period of the 1930s.
In between, in the 50, 60s, and 60's, it was tremendously reduced with the good effects of the 40s welfare programs, strong unions, and social democratic policy instead of neoliberal economic policies.
I hope that you question that rhetoric.
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Comment number 12.
At 10th Sep 2008, bookhimdano wrote:10.
lending has been the fuel of our economy
one way to look at our future is to calculate the amount of lending that is now possible based on existing deposits rather than on short term lending. This is less than 50% of previous levels of lending which means there is now at least 50% less business about which means there are too many estate agents, builders, insurance providers etc competing for half the work.[at best] Given the cautious lending it maybe only 30% of previous levels. a 70% contraction!!!!
which means we are looking at least at a 50% contraction in one of the main engines of the uk economy which will kick into all other sectors.
which is why there will be a series of takeovers resulting in a consolidation into a few large banks, estate agents, builders, insurance companies with a massive restructing which imo will result in most of the uk being owned by the wealth funds who are the only people with cash. Already China has a 10% stake in the uk business and they are looking to increase.
Historically in economic terms one might equate it to the fall costantinople when the vast wealth of the Byzantine empire ended up in Venice.
some are predicting the crash [if there is one -its just probabilities] to start about 10th oct which will takes us back to 2002 levels. This would be followed by a tidal wave of inflation caused by a dash for commodities that will significantly wipe out the value of cash savings. Those will not be the days to be poor.
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Comment number 13.
At 10th Sep 2008, barriesingleton wrote:"WHO WROTE THAT THEN" COMES HOME TO ROOST
My recent point made I think? No 'honourable' person would put their name (or their voice) to the words of another, without carefully attributing those words to their source. Is it possible Gordon Brown has been dishonourable? Perish the thought!
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Comment number 14.
At 10th Sep 2008, JadedJean wrote:IT'S PATRIOTIC TO BECOME INDEBTED?
stayingcool (#11) But in the 50s, 60s and 70s, all that was by those who considered Old Labour policies to be not fully in the interests of USA foreign policy (not to mention our owing them lots of money from the rescue after WWII). Instead we were told that Chicago School economics was a and look where unscrupulously who objectively could never afford to repay it is taking us. Those selling them debt didn't care, they could package it up and sell it on. I hope Newsnight's coverage of Lehman Bros etc doesn't go lightly.
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Comment number 15.
At 10th Sep 2008, Bill Bradbury wrote:JadedJean /Bookhimdando, agreed, you also smell a rat.
Talking of rats I see some more are deserting the sinking ship, --ITV, Enterprise Inns, Carpone Warehouse and Ferrexpo, now leaving the FTSE 100, to be replaced by Foreign competition, for whom this country is in hock.
I think I will put my trust in "Snakeoil salesmen!!
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Comment number 16.
At 10th Sep 2008, barriesingleton wrote:YOU CAN PUT HIGGS LIPSTICK ON A BLACK HOLE - ITS STILL IMAGINARY NOTHING
The parallels between high energy physics and climate science are stark. In both cases we have a shaky orthodoxy and a persuasive alternative view. The fascinating thing is that the two are linked through the science of the Electric Universe.
This planet does not float in an orthodox vacuum but in an electrically conductive cosmic plasma, that the Big Bang Brigade refuse to acknowledge. Current changes on planet Earth may well be due to cosmic forces, and supposed 'evidence' for Black Holes, Dark Matter and their crazy cousins, might well be misinterpreted effects of cosmic electricity. The supporting data are well presented on the web. I have posted links. Anyone want to do REAL science or must it be silly games and razzamatazz?
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Comment number 17.
At 10th Sep 2008, JadedJean wrote:thegangofone (#4) I hope you've had time to spare a thought or two for those who've been suckered into believing the equalities hype as an excuse for the 'fairness' (caveat emptor: if-you-don't-benefit-from-schooling-that's-your-choice/fault) of de-regulationist economics which 'anti-fascist' communist/Trotskyite pressure groups reinforce with their equaton of statist planned/mixed economics and welfare statism as 'nazi'.
Still, thankfully, there are some out there with a balancing perspective on
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Comment number 18.
At 10th Sep 2008, barriesingleton wrote:I SAY I SAY I SAY
Tom and Jerry whooshing noises punctuating an item on house prices. Harmonica music all over the Iraq report. And then Newsnight has the gall to ask if CERN money is being well spent. It's the way you tell 'em.
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