How do you measure a green shoot?
On Monday, Michael Blastland started the Magazine's search for .
The idea is simple - what everyday things could be signs of the wider state of the nation. The amount of popcorn sold, for instance, or how much junk mail is delivered. We want to draw up a list of several different indexes and plan to measure them over the coming weeks to see if they are as useful as conventional measures of how the economy is doing.
Based on your suggestions so far, in the Monitor we will be discussing various options, and invite you to make further suggestions on how the proposals could be refined and measured.
First, let's think about transport. Lots of you have suggested this as being ripe for measurement.
Tim Devonshire from Peterborough suggests counting bikes in the office cycle shed. "No matter how many people claim it is for the health benefits, it is an amusing coincidence that our 10% pay cut preceded a week when every cycle shed in our office was suddenly full," he says.
And Philip Nash of London is on the same lines. "The number of people on bikes on the way to work in the morning - though of course this index would have to control for the weather, advertising campaigns and the Tour de France being on TV," he says, all of which are good points and might mean cycles are, in this sense, a non-starter.
So how about taxis?
Charles Macdonald, also of London, says from time to time he asks drivers of black cabs how long it takes to make £100. "Taxis are a discretionary expense. It is always possible to find a cheaper but less convenient means. Two years ago it took between four and six hours on a weekday. Ten months ago it took a day-and-a-half. Now a cabbie can take in just over £100 on a week day. These figures are only approximate based on a sample (some taxi drivers take offense when asked), but they show not only expenditure, but confidence."
Interesting thoughts - but perhaps a bit too difficult to measure reliably.
Rudolf Hucker says having worked in the West End of London for 20 years, an "infallible barometer" of economic health is the ease or not of getting a parking space in Berkeley Square. If only he'd kept records we might be on to something.
Tony Leigh proposes something a bit simpler, which feels bit like Reggie Perrin. "How about the time taken to commute to work?" he asks. "My drive used to take me 25 minutes, now it's below 15. Fewer people working = fewer people driving to work = less congestion on roads. And vice versa."
Evis T of Menai Bridge has a variant on it - "The car pool index? - and Russell James, Wirral, proposes counting the number of cars on the M6 Toll motorway. "At present if you drive along it, you feel like you've just before part of a film depicting the world after the human race had vanished," he says.
Peter K, London, takes the debate onto the tracks. "How easy is it to get a seat on the train? When there's a recession, there are fewer people commuting or going on business. When there's a boom, there's obviously more. One effect that is a bit more subtle is during a house-price boom, then the number of long-distance commuters goes up, as people try and find cheaper places to live."
Angela, London, takes a different tack. "What about sales of flowers at petrol stations? I think sales go up during times of recession and high stress, being a relatively cheap way of saying 'sorry' or 'thank you' or 'I've lost my job' when you don't have much dosh."
So where does that leave us? We may be on to something good here, but it needs to be a quite specific thing we're looking for, yet not obviously over-influenced by other factors. Any further thoughts via the Comments field please.
16:07 UK time, Friday, 21 August 2009
Snippets from the week's news, sliced, diced and processed for your convenience.
