Great Expectations for final major
"Exceeding Expectations" - so says the advertising blurb for the PGA of America, the body that represents America's teaching professionals and organises the final major of the year, the .
But while the ads extol the virtues of proper tutoring to help our amateur games improve beyond all natural level of hope, when it comes to the best players on the planet it is as much a case of managing expectations as exceeding them.
As we head into the tournament they call "Glory's Last Shot", which is being staged at the spectacular in Wisconsin, expectation levels are all over the place for so many of the game's big names.
Never have they been lower for the player who continues to cling on to the world number one ranking, . One of the hallmarks of his career has been how he has managed the way the rest of the field expects him to play.
Tiger Woods plays a tee shot during his pratice round at Whistling Straits on Tuesday
A relentless stream of positive remarks backed up by imperious play have undoubtedly helped make him the most intimidating presence on any leaderboard during his career. But given at Firestone in Ohio last week, few anticipate seeing his name among the pacesetters as he bids for a fifth PGA title.
His task in the build-up to this week's Championship has been to manage expectations upwards and send out a reminder that he is actually a challenger. Consequently, his pre-tournament news conference was peppered with lines that had the aim of demonstrating his confidence, perhaps more than his current form and circumstances warrant.
"Life is certainly getting a lot better," said the man who finished 18 over par, 30 shots behind the winner, last Sunday. "I've done some good work the last two days and I've still got one more day of some work. Hopefully I'll be ready come Thursday."
He even added: "We all have a chance this week and hopefully I can get it done."
Is it pure rhetoric or is there some truth in what Woods is saying? Can he turn his form around that quickly? Equally, has his game gone to the extent that some of the hysterical coverage of his decline suggests? The truth probably lies somewhere in between.
The 14-time major winner is not alone in dealing with changing expectation levels. But faces the opposite scenario to Woods. Since winning at in June, the Ulsterman has contended with what would always be his toughest stretch of events - the , where he is a past champion, and the , where there is always a thirst for home glory.
McDowell did so in the wake of his first major victory. Sure, it gave him confidence but he was drained of energy and burdened by heightened levels of expectation. Unspectacular finishes followed - 21st at Loch Lomond, 23rd at St Andrews and 31st at Killarney.
"I've always realised that expectations are extremely dangerous," admitted the 31-year-old. "More so now. You know, I've let myself off the hook for the last weeks [since winning at Pebble Beach] and I've got a big week ahead of me.
"I'm not going to put any extra pressure on myself, I'm going to try to do my best and then I've got four weeks off after this to reset myself for what will be a big end to the year for me with the and ."
Phil Mickelson has struggled with the expectation of becoming world number one
But already he is wrestling with all that comes with being a major champion. He knows he will be one of Europe's key men at , expected to play all five rounds rather than making up the numbers as he did on his Ryder Cup debut at two years ago.
McDowell has already sought the counsel of three-time major winner .
"There is a large burden placed on your shoulders after you win a major," said Harrington, who has won the Open twice and the USPGA. "The pressure is much higher and you've got to perform to a higher level in the public's mind and in the media's mind. What you have to do is your own thing, be yourself and play your own game.
"Expectations tend to lead people to believe that if you've won a major you are never going to hit a bad shot again. Well, that ain't going to happen."
McDowell says he is raring to go and Harrington's wise words may well help him manage his own expectations to good effect this week.
Certainly, , who was not anticipating a seven-shot Open win at St Andrews last month, shows how wide open world golf is at the moment.
So coming from a low starting point in terms of confidence might not be the worst scenario for Woods or for someone like , who has announced he will take a two-month break after this week to try to reignite his career.
has struggled with the expectation of becoming world number one, although he has revealed his efforts have been hampered by . Does this news alter our thinking towards him this week? And will that help his cause?
Or what about this one. Will local man sneak in on the blind side and become the man to supercede Woods at the top of the world rankings?
How many people are expecting that scenario?
Comment number 1.
At 11th Aug 2010, Lairdy wrote:Me. I think that the chances of Stricker winning and becoming world number one are far better than Woods chances of turning things around so quickly or Mickelson winning with his condition. It would make for a nicer story anyway.
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Comment number 2.
At 11th Aug 2010, Fed_Borg wrote:I think Tiger will turn things around this week, he might not win, but a top 10 finish will do nicly thank you.
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Comment number 3.
At 11th Aug 2010, Millsss wrote:I think if Rory plays his best there is no stopping him, if he could putt he would win every time he plays and as you can see when he does putt well he does brilliant things. The only thing I can see working against him is playing with Stricker the first two days with Stricker's home crowd. If he can overcome that he will win in my opinion.
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Comment number 4.
At 12th Aug 2010, lorus59 wrote:One just can't predict any golf tournament these days. There is no outstanding candidate to win. It's a lottery.
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Comment number 5.
At 12th Aug 2010, Noshankingtonite wrote:Very difficult to pick a winner from such a broad field. Must be able to drive straight and have confidence with the flat-stick (which pretty much rules out Mickelson and Woods IMHO). Irish seem to be on a roll over recent years, so well worth looking at McDowell et al. Stricker has slight home-town advantage and Goosen is playing well also this year and has the pedigree at the highest level. Els also making a bit of a come-back and South Africans punching above their weight at the moment. PGA often won by an overseas player - really open field this year. may be all down to the weather ala St Andrews.
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Comment number 6.
At 12th Aug 2010, laertes wrote:It is always difficult to pick a winner in a golf tournament. I think in one recent year, if you had bet on the 54 hole leader to win that major, you would have lost all 4 bets. Stricker, for all his form in either low quality fields (the John Deere was his last win) or the play-offs, when he does do well against quality fields, has not had a top 5 finish in the majors since 1999. ³ÉÈË¿ìÊÖ crowd support might help this week, but in a long run of good form he has never shown the capability to win a major.
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Comment number 7.
At 12th Aug 2010, ScotCanSteve wrote:4 Scots in the top 15 (I include Michael Sim) after 18 holes at PGA. A record?
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Comment number 8.
At 13th Aug 2010, buymespresso wrote:Re 4 - I am curious about how much effect luck has on golf. Results in some sports owe more to luck than in other sports - sports whose scores rely on the accumulation of a lot of points - like basketball and tennis - rely on less luck than low-scoring games like football. Golf has eighteen holes - so luck should even out and make it less of a lottery.
But yes, it would be nice if someone wrote an article showing how well major winners in the last five years have done in other tournaments since. Otherwise we're all just talking pubtalk.
I don't suppose the ³ÉÈË¿ìÊÖ reporters know how to compile and analyze statistics though... these writing types tend to be bad at maths and then boast about being bad at math like it's something to be proud of.
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Comment number 9.
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