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Party pooper (2)

Graham Smith | 11:20 UK time, Monday, 27 September 2010

Full marks to Labour's Jude Robinson for telling the bigwigs some uncomfortable truths when she addressed her party conference. Jude said Labour's dismal showing in the South West, and in Cornwall in particular, was not helped by the reluctance of Cabinet members to campaign here. Jude didn't name him, but we all know who she meant (Lord Mandelson) when she criticised senior Labour figures for flirting with the idea of anti-Tory tactical voting.

Labour now has a new leader and, having just about drawn level with the Conservatives without a leader, can expect to move ahead in the next few months - particularly after October's comprehensive spending review and a new wave of cuts to public services. Opinion polls and general elections are, of course, very different things.

The latest YouGov poll, taken before Ed Miliband's election on Saturday, had the Conservatives on 41, Labour on 37 and the Liberal Democrats on 13. Another YouGov poll, taken two days earlier, had the Conservatives and Labour both on 39.

However, according to the Electoral Calculus website, even these polling figures would not be enough to return Jude's Camborne & Redruth constituency to Labour: EC forecasts a comfortable Conservative victory in with 41%, Liberal Democrats down 10 to 28% and Labour up 8 to 24%. Others are down 2 to 7%.

The Electoral Calculus site nevertheless now rates Labour's chances of winning Camborne & Redruth as slightly bettter than the Lib Dems (15% to 13%.) Chances of the Conservatives holding the seat: 72%.

Comments

  • Comment number 1.

    Graham - I don't thnk Electoral Calculus is much use in Cornwall.

    Their web site states "Unfortunately they [local factors] cannot be included, as predictions are driven by national levels of support."

    I think you would agree that the political map in Cornwall is entirely different to the one in the UK. Labour's support in Cornwall in no way relates to its support in Cornwall.

  • Comment number 2.

    Labour's record on Cornwall is abysmal, their regional development agency was an attempt to incorporate Cornwall in a region stretching from Gloucester to the isle of Silly run by un-democratic quango's was an insult ,that coupled with the un-sustainable housing targets proposed by the RSS meant Labour was seen as autocratic and out of touch.

  • Comment number 3.

    If people want to see what the baby brother is going to bring to Cornwall they should watch this from Bob Crow broadcast this morning on bbcs hard talk

    /programmes/b00tz7gz

    Arthur Scargill MK2 this is the true face of the new leadership

  • Comment number 4.

    I think erasing the memory of Blair, Brown and Mandelson is going to take a very long time; this papering over the cracks does not change much as both Millibands were senior figures in the previous administration which broke Britain

  • Comment number 5.

    "I think you would agree that the political map in Cornwall is entirely different to the one in the UK."

    Why? There are other areas in Britain that have Labour and Lib Dems and no Tories. Or Tories and and Labour and no Lib Dems etc. Cornwall is no different. We are talking "big boy" politics here, aren't we?

  • Comment number 6.

    "Why?"

    No other area has such a strong showing from independents in local elections and no other 'English county' has a long established nationalist party or cross party campaign for devolution.

    Historically one could also site the Duchy, Stannary Parliaments and rotten boroughs as being quite different.

    Cornish Labour needs to become exactly that! Cornish. If the Labour Party engages with the Cornish movement and backs the campaign for devolution to a Cornish Assembly (one could add a few other pro-Cornish campaigns as well) then who knows what the outcome of any future election could be?

  • Comment number 7.

    "If the Labour Party engages with the Cornish movement"

    Surely you mean "movements",TheCornishDem?

    I notice you say Cornwall "has a long established nationalist party". That is all Mebyon Kernow is,(if 1951 could be said to be "long-established").As the "Party for Cornwall", there is little evidence of this amongst voters, (most especially in Parliamentary elections).

  • Comment number 8.

    Slimslad – How many people does it take to form a movement?

    MK is a not a political party, it is a pressure group like everything so called Cornish Nationals do, playing to peoples fears with false twisted information, much the same as the BNP do. The famous Cornish gene is a good example of this work, as is second home owners, Emmets and Devonwall and what has all this fear done to improve Cornwall, the results are outside our doors, on the high streets and on the empty boards in the job centre

  • Comment number 9.

    I have wondered about this "Celtic gene" and the excitement it caused in some quarters,(most especially the members of the Celtic League). Would a person's "Cornishness" have to be tested in the laboratory? Rather sinister.

  • Comment number 10.

    "Celtic gene"? Where did you get that idea from Slimslad.

    As far as I can see Mebyon Kernow are civic nationalists and put no weight in claims of genetic or racial Cornishness.

    Are you interested in adult debate or just rather silly misrepresentations and lies? Are you capable of adult debate because I'm more than willing to oblige.

    BTW in think it's parties like the BNP, UKIP, English Democrats etc who you should be really looking to for such unpleasent theories of identity, but then again, perhaps you already know that.

  • Comment number 11.

    "Celtic gene"? Where did you get that idea from Slimslad.?"

    Not my "idea",TheCornishDem,. Members of the Celtic League make a point of emphasising the discovery of the "Celtic gene" in Cornwall.
    Where did I mention Mebyon Kernow in that post? Nice sidestep there,TheCornishDem!

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