³ÉÈË¿ìÊÖ

Waking up to a blanket of white snow on Christmas morning brings an extra magic to the festive excitement. But how likely are we to see snow this Christmas?

It is far too early to say just yet whether this Christmas will be white. Long-range weather forecast models are not agreeing on any particular trend towards the festive period.

However, there is a slightly higher than normal chance that the weather will turn calmer and drier in the run up to Christmas. If these calm, dry conditions continue, snow would be less likely, but frost could still give some wintry-looking scenes.

However, if cold conditions do take hold for a while, this may increase the chance of snow if and when any fronts do arrive.

The chances vary a lot across the country, with generally a higher likelihood the further north and the higher above sea level you go.

The places most likely to get a white Christmas Day are northern and eastern Scotland, northern England, north Wales and the north-west Midlands.

Forecasting snow accurately is notoriously difficult in the UK.

Weather forecasters take into consideration lots of variables such as where the air is expected to be coming from - for example, an Arctic air mass is most likely to bring us snow - as well as the intensity of any rainfall approaching that may turn to snow if temperatures are low enough.

Weather supercomputers use several models to generate forecast data using slightly different variables. This can give us an idea of whether snow is a likely scenario around 10 days in advance. Then forecasters use their skill and experience to firm up on details with about five days to go.

You will need to keep an eye on our forecasts on ³ÉÈË¿ìÊÖ TV, radio, website and app for the latest updates.

The official Met Office definition of a white Christmas is for one snowflake to be observed falling in the 24 hours of 25 December somewhere in the UK.

This happens on more than half of Christmas Days, but the idyllic picture of more widespread lying snow is much rarer.

This has only happened four times since 1960, the most recent was during the very snowy December of 2010 when more than 80% of weather stations reported snow lying on the ground on Christmas Day.

We might expect that as average temperatures rise, there would be an associated fall in the likelihood of a white Christmas, but actually the picture is very mixed across the UK.

A Helsinki University study looked at the probability of lying snow on Christmas Eve across Europe. Meteorologist Daan Van Den Broek found that in the UK, some places have actually seen an increase in the likelihood of festive snowfall.

In southern and eastern England, the likelihood increased by 10% for the period 1991 to 2020 as compared to the previous 30 years, while in the Scottish Highlands the chance of Christmas snow has decreased by 30% in the same period.