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The end of the Taliban
by Andrew Gilligan
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Tony Blair's claiming "total vindication" but is this really the end of the war in Afghanistan? The anti-Taliban leader Hamid Karzai said on Today on December 7 that his forces have entered Kandahar and the Taliban have started handing over weapons. No wonder the Taliban changed their minds about fighting to the death. The deal on offer was rather attractive. Amnesty for all Afghan fighters, at first, including the Taliban leader, Mullah Omar.
On the morning of the surrender of Kandahar, Omar's position got a bit more difficult. Mr Karzai changed his mind. When asked if Mullah Omar should be put no trial if there was evidence that he was implicated in acts of terrorism, he said definitely.
It may be safely assumed that the Americans spent rather a long time on Mr Karzai's satellite phone before the surrender on what would happen to Mullah Omar. Ivan Eland of the Washington think-tank, the Cato institute, says the US will have made it quite clear they'd rather scupper the surrender than let Omar go free. He says the US can exert a lot of pressure. After all, they put Karzai where he is, so probably he will do what they want.
Omar's whereabouts are now uncertain: he's reported to be on the run. Other questions remain. Adam Roberts, professor of international relations at Oxford, asks: what about the hundreds - or thousands - of foreign fighters in Kandahar? No amnesty for them. Only, in Karzai's ominous word, justice. He says there is a high risk of a repeat of the very messy situation in Mazar. The problem is that if people think they are going to be killed they have nothing to lose.
And, there have been unconfirmed reports of looting and gunfire in Kandahar, but it's not yet clear how serious this is. Still, Professor Roberts says that recent developments may indeed prove the end of the war in Afghanistan. He says while there will probably be some Taliban resistance, it's very unlikely that Afghanistan will ever be entirely at peace. But in terms of the main war it is almost certainly near an end.
The Taliban may be over - but they, of course, are not the real target. For the moment, and it could change any moment, Osama bin Laden lives on. One of his likeliest hideouts, the cave complex at Tora Bora, was this morning reported to have been captured too. But bin Laden apparently wasn't there. Has he fled just over the border into Pakistan? For now at least, despite the enormous progress of the last 24 hours, the central task of the Afghan war remains unachieved.
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Hamid Karzai |
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Mullah Omar |
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Osama bin Laden |
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Afghans search through the rubble of a building which they claim was bombed by U.S. warplanes in Kandahar |
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