What are the chances of an asteroid hitting earth in 2032?
Why the likelihood of planetary impact changed as asteroid 2024 YR4 approached.
On 27 December 2024, astronomers spotted an asteroid that was potentially heading towards earth.
Named 2024 YR4, it was estimated to be between 40m and 90m across, with the potential to cause massive damage if it hit a populated area of the planet.
The chances of that happening, however, seemed to fluctuate significantly - ranging from 1% to a peak of 3%, before falling to virtually zero.
Tim Harford investigates what was going on, with the help of Davide Farnocchia, a navigation engineer at NASA鈥檚 Jet Propulsion Laboratory.
Presenter: Tim Harford
Producer: Lizzy McNeill
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound Mix: Hal Haines
Editor: Richard Vadon
Podcast
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More or Less: Behind the Stats
Tim Harford investigates numbers in the news: are they always reliable?
