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Will there be no deal? Right now it is just too hard to say.

But is Boris Johnson only trying to send messages to his opposite numbers? The answer is no.

On Wednesday we saw this whole saga move closer to what both sides would consider a failure - an inability to agree on a trade deal that had been in reach and is still in their mutual interest.

It may yet come to pass that the prime minster or the EU leadership will have a change of heart.

Of course the rhetoric does not tell us everything that's going on.

But the PM's warning on Thursday evening is far from just a message designed to be heard in EU capitals - whatever the merits of the decision he may take, Downing Street is preparing the ground for a choice to leave the status quo without firm arrangements in place.