成人快手

Steve Rosenberg: Ukraine's incursion shows Russia's war is not going to plan

Vladimir Putin during a meeting of the security councilImage source, Kremlin Handout
  • Published

Russia鈥檚 full-scale invasion of Ukraine was conceived in the Kremlin as a short, sharp military operation.

The expectation was that it would take a matter of days, a few weeks maximum, for Russia to establish control over its neighbour.

That was nearly two-and-a-half years ago.

The war in Ukraine rages on. It has not gone at all as Moscow had intended.

But here鈥檚 the thing. Over the last 29 months, so often we鈥檝e heard senior Russian officials claiming that the operation is going 鈥渁ccording to plan.鈥

President Vladimir Putin last said that in May, despite everything that had happened in the preceding two years: the heavy Russian casualties on the battlefield, the destruction of multiple Russian warships in the Black Sea, drone attacks deep inside Russia (even on the Kremlin itself), the shelling of Russian towns and villages near the Ukrainian border, the mutiny by Wagner mercenary fighters who had marched on Moscow.

Now there is a new addition to the list: this week鈥檚 cross-border Ukrainian assault on Russia鈥檚 Kursk region.

First, a disclaimer: it鈥檚 difficult to know exactly what is happening right now in the Sudzha district of Kursk region. It is unclear how many Ukrainian troops are there, how much territory they have seized and what their final objective may be.

Today鈥檚 edition of the Russian broadsheet Nezavisimaya Gazeta declared: 鈥淓vents on the Kursk front are shrouded in the notorious fog of war.鈥

But even in fog, some things are clear.

It鈥檚 evident that what is unfolding in Kursk region is further evidence that Russia鈥檚 war in Ukraine has not gone "according to plan". Events appear to have taken Russia鈥檚 political and military leadership completely by surprise.

Don鈥檛 expect Moscow to admit that.

More likely, Russian officials will use the Ukrainian assault to try to rally the Russian public around the government and bolster the official Kremlin narrative that (a) in this conflict Russia is not the aggressor, and (b) Russia is a besieged fortress surrounded by enemies who are plotting to invade and destroy it.

In reality it was Russia that launched a full-scale invasion of its neighbour.

There鈥檚 clearly a big difference in language. When Russia poured its troops across the border into Ukraine in February 2022, the Kremlin called this a "special military operation" and claimed that Russia was 鈥渓iberating鈥 towns and villages.

Moscow has described Ukrainian troops pushing into Russia as 鈥渁 terrorist attack鈥 and 鈥渁 provocation.鈥

The assault by Ukrainian forces on Kursk region and the fierce fighting there are a sign that hostilities are coming closer to home. But will that turn Russian public opinion against the war?

Not necessarily.

Last year I visited Belgorod, a Russian region which, like Kursk, borders Ukraine. It was being shelled from across the border. Everyone I met told me that nothing like this had happened before Russia鈥檚 full-scale invasion of Ukraine: before February 2022 it was all peace and quiet in Belgorod region.

But instead of concluding that the "special military operation" had been a mistake, most people I spoke to called for Russia to step up its military action and push deeper into Ukrainian territory.

Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev is calling for exactly that. In a social media post today he wrote:

鈥淲e can and we should take more land of the Ukraine that still exists. [We should go to] Odesa, to Kharkiv, to Dnipro, Mykolaiv. To Kyiv and onwards.鈥

But Dmitry Medvedev doesn鈥檛 get to call the shots. Vladimir Putin does. We wait to see how he responds to what have been a dramatic few days in southern Russia.