Mr Xi: The next most powerful man in the world?
Picture the scene: in one chair sits the leader of the richest and most powerful nation in the world. His name: Barack Obama, President of the United States of America.
In a second chair, sits the man who's probably about to take the title away from him. His name: Xi Jinping, Vice-President of the People's Republic of China.
Within the next year or so, Mr Xi is expected to have taken over as general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party and State President. During his decade in office, China is expected to overtake the US as the biggest economy in the world and will be well on the way to outspending it militarily as well. And this week, he's been in Washington on a getting-to-know-you visit.
We can get the jokes out of the way now. The current Chinese president is Hu Jintao, and has been the inevitable butt of innumerable jokes of the "President Who?" variety.
Mr Xi (pronounced She) will, I suspect, soon be subjected to countless "He said, Xi said" jokes. (The usually respectable magazine has already run a spoof headline competition: the winner was a headline for a story about a new Chinese high speed train line -- "Xi's got a ticket to ride.")
Silly jokes aside, President-to-be Xi could soon be one of the most important men on the planet. And the relationship he establishes with Mr Obama -- or with whoever is in the White House after the US presidential election in November -- will be a critical one.
At present, the relationship between the two countries is said by some analysts to be suffering from a "trust deficit". Washington doesn't trust what it sees as Beijing's military expansionism, or what it regards as unfair trade practices; Beijing distrusts the US's stated intention of building up a much more significant military presence in the Asia-Pacific region and its supposed penchant for expecting still to be treated as the only real global super-power.
Last November, on a visit to Australia, President said: "The United States is a Pacific power, and we are here to stay." Two months later, as he unveiled the new US defence strategy, he said: "We'll be strengthening our presence in the Asia-Pacific, and [military] budget reductions will not come at the expense of this critical region."
The message could hardly have been clearer. US allies in the region -- but especially Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan -- are already nervous about China's regional ambitions, in the knowledge that there are valuable mineral resources waiting to be exploited in the East and South China Seas. That's why they want a beefed-up US military presence.
When I was in China just over a year ago, I was astounded at the huge changes in the country since my previous visit some five years earlier. It wasn't just the rush-hour traffic jams in Beijing; it was also the palpable sense of a society on the move, economically, socially and politically.
No more Communist party minders for visiting foreign journalists; lively political debates on the internet; openly expressed disagreements about some aspects of foreign and economic policy. (No, I'm not saying China has turned into a liberal democracy, far from it -- the Tibetans know that only too well, as do any number of political dissidents and activists -- but there is a far greater degree of political openness than many outsiders appreciate.)
For Mr Xi, it means a country that will be much more difficult to control. An internationally-publicised village rebellion in the south of the country has led to a fascinating experiment: a genuine, open, free election, conducted by secret ballot, in which villagers will be able to choose their own leaders. Perhaps it's a sign of things to come.
For now, though, Western leaders still seem to be fixated on telling China what they want from it. Vote with us on a Syria resolution at the United Nations; free up your trade policies; allow your currency to increase in value so that your competitive advantage is reduced.
But President-to-be Xi is giving little away. In the US this week, he has said nothing that hasn't been said many times before by other Chinese leaders. But he is still the man to watch -- because before too long, he's likely to be the leader of the most powerful nation in the world.
Comment number 1.
At 18th Feb 2012, JunkkMale wrote:'We can get the jokes out of the way now. The current Chinese president is Hu Jintao, and has been the inevitable butt of innumerable jokes of the "President Who?" variety.
Mr Xi (pronounced She) will, I suspect, soon be subjected to countless "He said, Xi said" jokes. (The usually respectable Foreign Policy magazine has already run a spoof headline competition: the winner was a headline for a story about a new Chinese high speed train line -- "Xi's got a ticket to ride.")
Silly jokes aside..
That's a lot of 'jokes' being deployed. So, please, yes, let's put them to one side.
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Comment number 2.
At 18th Feb 2012, BluesBerry wrote:Xi Jinping, Vice-President of the People's Republic of China - one of the most intelligent, provocative leaders Obama can expect to meet. He has a mind like the proverbial steel trap, & instinct to look into crevices & cracks that many others would never see.
In his visit to Ireland he promoted friendly coexistence; whereas, in the US he called for stronger Sino-U.S. city, provincial-level cooperation.
The difference in diplomacy is subtle, but it is there.
He visited Int'l Studies Learning Center in L.A, where he spoke with VP Biden.
The difference in location is not subtle and is definitely there.
Chinese VP wraps up official visit to U.S, urging sustained growth of mutually-beneficial Sino-U.S. business ties.
The difference in trading policy is subtle, but it is there.
(Chinese VP said both China, U.S. "winners" in bilateral economic, trade "cooperation".) Look where XI places responsibility: Chinese VP said expanding US exports to China is "most effective" way to address bilateral trade imbalance.
XI's only pledge was to deepen China/agricultural cooperation, this after visiting farms in Iowa; then came a "should" - China/US should increase strategic trust, respect mutual core interests.
Xi's time with Obama was little and mundane. One doesn't have to stretch the imagination to understand why. There is a "match" here of intellects, something Obama does not often meet head on.
Then Xi is off to Ireland & Turkey...
I get the impression that Xi is a man who can handle himself, diplomacy, politics, and whatever else raises its ugly head in the Pacific Region.
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Comment number 3.
At 18th Feb 2012, Scotch Get wrote:JunkkMale,
Grist to the mill!
(see #56)
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Comment number 4.
At 19th Feb 2012, humsaeidxiii wrote:If I were Mr. Xi, and introduced to Obama
I'll ask Obama, can you please introduce me to your boss and leader
Mr Rothchild...
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Comment number 5.
At 19th Feb 2012, humsaeidxiii wrote:or isit still Rupert Merdoch these days? It used to be Kissinger...
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Comment number 6.
At 19th Feb 2012, humsaeidxiii wrote:sorry Murdoch
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Comment number 7.
At 20th Feb 2012, ghostofsichuan wrote:The ruling Central Committee of China provides for some difficult politics. It is a mysterious organ of government. In 1971, Mao's appointed successor, Lin Biao, died in a "plane accident" after what was believed to be an attempted coup. In 1989 Zhao Ziyang, Central Committee Chair was placed in life time house arrest after the incidents at Tienanmen Square. Mr. Xi will be careful until everything has unfolded. It is how the politics work in China. The succession of Chinese leadership requires the approval of a number of factions and these sometimes shift. China has an economic philosophy but the political philosophy is unclear.
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Comment number 8.
At 20th Feb 2012, John_from_Hendon wrote:Are we not all guilty in giving too much credence to chairman Mao's dictum that all power flows from the barrel of a gun, be that gun figurative or real (money!), or some such idea. Or the more common what do you call an ape up a tree with a machine gun? Ans: 'Sir'?
Power flows from the people, so long as the people propel you forward you remain a leader. Leaders do not like that as there are a billion leaders eager, willing and able to do their job just as well as they. Happenstance made them a 'leader'.
Leader jokes are a persistent mode of debunking the pompous. 'Mrs Thatcher Milk Snatcher' for example wonderfully alliterative, and accurate. And as humsaeidxiii, above notes many names offer ample opportunity, particularly in the case he/she cites, with the a foreign (French!) language in mind (merde I should not have said that!)! Cross language jokes always do well. Polish jokes in Germany, Irish, Scots and Welsh in the UK etc etc. Most work because there is an underlying element of truth.
When it comes to first names there is much evil and mirth to be found at the baptismal font! In India to give a child a superior start in like it used to be quite common to name a child with just initials, so that when referred to in later life the initials and family name had to be used. Confirming importance - perhaps!
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Comment number 9.
At 24th Feb 2012, Olivia Olson wrote:"Mr Xi is expected to have taken over as general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party and State President. During his decade in office, China is expected to overtake the US."
Silly thinks.
I don't think so. This is only possible when China have an outstanding economic growth.
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