China and Darfur: the Spielberg factor
Five years ago today, the crisis in Darfur was ignited by a rebel attack. The government responded, backed by janjaweed militia 鈥 and now, five years on, an estimated 200,000 people have been killed, and two and a half million have lost their homes. Call it genocide, as the US does, or 鈥渢he greatest humanitarian disaster the world is facing鈥 as the UN does 鈥 whatever you call it, it is a tragedy of immense proportions.
So far, so familiar. But suppose there was a hint of some good news out of Darfur on this grim anniversary. Suppose that even as thousands more people are fleeing from their homes to escape renewed aerial bombardments by Sudanese government warplanes and more ground attacks by the feared janjaweed 鈥 suppose that there is now a real prospect of deploying the full 26,000-strong multi-national peace-keeping force that the UN and African Union are meant to be putting in place.
And suppose the Sudanese government鈥檚 belated acquiescence in that deployment was the result of increased 鈥 and increasingly public 鈥 pressure from Beijing. Might the film director Steven Spielberg, and the other 鈥済enocide Olympics鈥 campaigners like actress Mia Farrow, actually have made a difference?
According to the British Foreign Office minister Mark Malloch Brown, there is now a 鈥渢actical meeting of minds鈥 between Beijing, Washington and London. (You can hear my interview with him here, and there's a transcript .) He is now cautiously optimistic that the joint UN/AU force will be in place over the coming months. Khartoum, apparently, has now pretty much agreed to the composition of the force 鈥 although you won鈥檛 need reminding that previous Khartoum agreements have sometimes not lasted very long.
The reported at the weekend: 鈥淐hina has begun shifting its position on Darfur, stepping outside its diplomatic comfort zone to quietly push Sudan to accept the world鈥檚 largest peacekeeping force 鈥︹
The British government agrees. It doesn鈥檛 mean that peace is around the corner, but it might mean that pressuring China to pressure Khartoum 鈥 with the Beijing Olympics now only months away 鈥 is having an effect. (For more background, read the Darfur analyst Alex de Waal鈥檚 blog, and some interesting comments on it .)
Oh pleeeeze, what has a UN force ever done to protect anyone's life anywhere? A worthless expensive figleaf, the UN should be disbanded. Will 26,000 UN soldiers be willing and able to protect even some of the 2.5 million refugees the Sudanese government wants to see dead? I wouldn't bet a plugged nickel on it. There is only one force in this world that could make a difference and that force, the United States of America will not get involved. The US is NOT the world's policeman.
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