US-Turkey: heading for the rocks?
There's a thoughtful analysis by the Michigan-based Middle East analyst Juan Cole about the current state of relations between the US and Turkey, after a Congressional committee upset Ankara by voting to call "genocide" the slaughter of hundreds of thousands of Armenians during the First World War. Given the tensions in the region, the relationship is a crucial one, and it seems to be heading for serious trouble. Washington isn't exactly thrilled at the prospect of Turkish troops engaging in "hot pursuit" operations across the border into northern Iraq as they try to deal with the fighters of the Kurdish separatist group the PKK. There's also an illuiminating account in the about the Washington politics and the lobbying that lie behind the Congressional vote.
UPDATE: Gideon Rachman of the FT has more interesting stuff on the lobbying efforts
Citing this analysis and the analysis itself can only be described with one word, "inane." Among other things, it demonstrates a profound lack of understanding about how American government works both structurally and politically.
From the analysis;
"But the Bush administration has, during the past five years, increasingly thrown away this asset"
Absolutely false. Quite the opposite is true. There were no repercussions to Turkey's refusal to allow the coalition to invade Iraq through Turkey's territory. The Bush administration advocated Turkey's admission to the EU. It admonished the Congressional committee's statement about genocide of Armenians.
"The dismissive treatment in some ways began when the US promised Turkey $1 bn in aid to offset the damage to its economy of the Gulf War in 1990-1991, but then Congress formally decided by the mid-1990s to renege on the pledge. No one has ever explained why we stiffed them"
This happened long before Bush was even elected. Unlike Parliamentary systems, the legislative branch of the US government is NOT a rubber stamp for the executive branch. The executive cannot hide a billion dollar gift to a foreign government Congress has specifically refused, especially in the aftermath of Iran-Contra. It would be grounds for impeachment of the President.
"Getting banks to underwrite economic enterprises is getting harder, which could result in a slowdown for Iraqi Kurdistan."
This is true anywhere in the world there is political instability. Banks want reasonable assurance they will be paid back and war is one factor which makes them very nervous.
"First, the Bush administration insisted on invading Iraq and overthrowing the secular Iraqi government"
Wrong again, it insisted on overthrowing a government which it perceived as a direct threat to its own nation's security the protection of which is the number one function of any government. It just happened to be secular. In Iran it won't be. That had nothing to do with it.
"Then, the US gave the Kurdistan Regional Authority control over the Kirkuk police"
All civil authorities have control over their local police force. This was the most stable part of Iraq. This issue is not relevant.
"and unleashed Kurdish troops on the Turkmen city of Tal Afar. (The Turks look on Iraq's 800,000 Turkmen as little brethren, over whom they feel protective, and don't want them dominated by Kurds)".
"The Kurds promptly announced their aspiration of annexing 3 further provinces, or at least big swathes of them, including the oil province of Kirkuk, and including substantial Turkmen populations."
As I recall, these areas had previously been populated by Kurds but Saddam Hussein had ethnically cleansed them and replaced the indigenous population of Kurds with others, notably Arabs. That's the real source of the problem.
"Despite the US military occupation of Iraq, Washington has done nothing to stop what Turkey sees as terrorists from going over the border into Turkey and killing Turks."
The US had and has much bigger fish to fry. Al Qaeda in Iraq, a civil war between Shia and Sunis, remnants of Saddam Hussein's Baathist regime, infiltrators from Iran and others coming through Syria. 5000 Kurdish guerillas don't rate. Had Turkey not only cooperated but participated in the invasion, it could have used its presence in Iraq after the overthrow to root out and capture the guerillas. Instead, it sat by and let others deal with the threat. Some fair weather NATO ally Turkey turned out to be. You have to wonder what else you can鈥檛 count on them for.
"PKK guerrillas have just killed 13 Turkish troops on Sunday and in the past few weeks have killed 28 altogether."
Insignificant. A pretext for an invasion. How many die in border clashes all over the world without it leading to war. India and Pakistan for example.
"If guerrillas were raiding over the border into the United States and had killed 28 US troops I think I know what Washington's response would be."
Whoever wrote this doesn't have a clue as to what is going on at the Mexican border with the US. Mexican soldiers are waging a war to help illegal migrants and drug smugglers get into the US. They have the US border patrol outmanned and outgunned. It could be a red hot issue in the next presidential race...except candidates in both parties seem to be turning a blind eye to this gaping loophole in American security. We don鈥檛 know why. Pandering to the Hispanic vote? Pandering to those who exploit illegals?
"The US Congress abruptly condemned modern Kemalist Turkey for the Armenian genocide, committed by the Ottoman Empire"
The Bush administration has no control over this, opposed it but could not stop it. IMO it was a very dumb move especially at this time. Shows you how ignorant Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi is and what an incompetent President she would make. She's second in line for the Oval office only behind VP Chaney in the chain of succession should anything happen to President Bush. From the Washington Post article 鈥 All eight living former secretaries of state have signed a joint letter to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) warning that the nonbinding resolution "would endanger our national security interests." Three former defense secretaries, in their own letter, said Turkey probably would cut off U.S. access to a critical air base. The government of Turkey is spending more than $300,000 a month on communications specialists and high-powered lobbyists, including former congressman Bob Livingston, to defeat the initiative.鈥 Apparently this incompetent Congresswoman was not impressed or phased by these people, her political mind was made up before they uttered a word. Support for this dumb resolution cut across party lines. This after nearly 100 years at a time when an international commission is looking into it and Turkey's Erdagon said Turkey would abide by their decision. Why this resolution now?
"(Turkey and Israel have long had a strong military and diplomatic relationship, which the Israel lobby had earlier attempted to preserve by lobbying congress on Turkey's behalf with regard to some issues. But the Israel lobby is now split between pro-Kurdish factions and pro-Turkish factions"
So much for the anti-semitic myth of a monolithic Israeli lobby in the US which conspires to control the US media, government and everything else in the US. Utter trash and lies.
Bad choice of analysts Mr. Lustig. Surely you can do much better than this.
Complain about this postJuan Cole and Kurds:
Juan Cole on Turkey and the PKK
Kerim Yildiz on the rights of the Kurdish people
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