Zapatero wins Spanish election
Partial results suggest that Zapatero has increased his number of MPs from 164 to 169.
If the projections are right, it is a bit of a surprise, as most polls were predicting he would win but lose seats. It's even more curious because the turn-out was down on last time around and a high turn-out was thought to favour the socialists.
The socialists' first reaction was that the winner was democracy and their first thoughts were for the family of the man murdered on Friday.
dominated the end of the Spanish election campaign, although perhaps did not change its mood.
That effect was highlighted because no electioneering was allowed by law from midnight on Friday to when the polls closed, so the only political news in the papers or on TV was the reaction to the murder.
The natural reaction was that the people might turn more towards the conservative PP because throughout the campaign, indeed throughout the last four years, they have criticised the government for being soft on Eta terrorism.
But it may simply have encouraged people to vote, to show their faith in democracy.
Brave daughter
In particular, the empassioned and rather brave statement of the dead man's daughter called on people to vote in his memory and reminded people he was a socialist.
And when the opposition leader Mariano Rajoy went to pay his last respects he was told off by the Basque socialist leader for having said in the past that they had betrayed the victims of terrorism and was asked not to repeat this.
So, despite the politicans' initial instincts to show unity, the positions they have taken up are as sharp as anything else in this rather bitter campaign.
Many commentators said that the murder wouldn’t affect the result - and perhaps they were right -but it certainly made for a very sombre backdrop.
I’m Mark Mardell, the ³ÉÈË¿ìÊÖ's North America editor. These are my reflections on American politics, some thoughts on being a Brit living in the USA, and who knows what else? My 
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Congratulations for the great, balanced report. I was surprised to see that when the party winning is center-left, a lot of western media just cover it briefly, whereas when a center-right government wins we get lots of babbling about "change" and "pro-market reforms" (case in point: France). In the end very few comments were made about the positive reforms in the economy and health that Zapatero seems to have brought in his last four years.
I watched both debates and the right wing opposition looked to me as bitter rivals who could only do finger-pointing and even dared to question the Zapatero government's positive macroeconomic data.
Once again, it’s clearly proven that Spain was, is and ever will be a socialist country. Unless, the "left" party messes it up (they still have some ex-ministers in prison since 1996) it is most difficult that the "right" wins. Just as well that the nationalist parties have lost many seats, showing that Spaniards still believe in a united country.
Is it just a coincidence that Zapatero won the first elections following the emotions caused by the Madrid bombings and the second elections following the emotions for another killing? Both happened days before the elections.
I've enjoyed Mark's reports of the election campaign in Spain which I found unbiased and insightful. However he overlooked the increasing and worrying territorial divide shown by these last elections. While Catalonia and the Basque Country gave full support to left-wing PSOE, central Spain did the opposite backing up the more conservative PP.
The most significant result, which you seem to have missed, is that the small parties (especially IU-LV) have been squeezed to the benefit of both main parties (PSOE and PP).
Perhaps the inference to draw is that Spanish voters outside of Calaluña did not want a repeat of the last legislature where the government was constantly having to make concessions to the regionalist parties in order to get its legislation through.
I think the blog offers a unbalanced view of the Spanish elections in relation to the Basque country. The dead of Mr Carrasco was preventable. There are other attacks on human rights tha are preventable too. Torture in police station, police brutality against political demostrations, banned political parties, newspaper closures, dispersion of political prisoners, etc. I am denied political participation because the Spanish state would do anything before acknowledging the right of self-determintation for the Basque Country. We have to go a long way to speak about real democracy in Spain.
Time for the "Popular Party" to change its name to the "Unpopular Party"?
Poetic justice indeed that the socialists have prevailed in the face of the opposition's extraordinarily negative campaigning and politics in general. Never was a political party more deserving of the epithet "the nasty party" (pace the former chairman of the British Conservative Party) than Spain's Partido Popular. One recalls the notorious episode last summer when Rajoy was clearly physically repelled at the thought of having to shake Zapatero's hand: the Financial Times's commentator wrote accurately (24 Aug) of the descent into incivility of Spain's public life when the leader of the opposition is visibly reluctant to shake the hand of the prime minister (and some PP party apparatchik responded simply, on 30 Aug, that Zapatero was "the worst prime minister in Spanish history" who should be "considered a traitor" - how's that for democratic discourse?)
The PP probably don't stand a chance until they sweep out the likes of Rajoy, Zaplana and Acebes and unequivocally repudiate any Francoist nostalgia and church interference.
Three possibilities:
1) ETA hadn't committed any murder: The PP would have said: "OK, it's logical, because Zapatero is negotiating with them, granting to the terrorists some polytical privileges"
2) ETA had killed a PP member: The PP would have said: "It's logical, because Zapatero is negotiating with them, so they would never kill a PSOE member"
3) ETA killed a PSOE member (that's what has happened unfortunately): PP has said: "ETA made this in order to remove any suspicious of negotiation, so that PSOE can appear not guilty of any kind of negotiation with them. Zapatero is using the death."
That's the right wing in Spain: awful.
There is a sense that winning this time round is a bit of a poisoned chalice. For reasons beyond the direct control of the government, the economy is on the verge of the abyss. Within the next few months, major property developers will scurry towards voluntary receivership to protect their assets. Tens of thousands of amateur speculators will dump the properties they bought off-plan. Stagflation will hamper the ability of the ECB to boost employment with lower interest rates. One of the great drivers of the Spanish economy, migrant labour, will suffer more than most as the construction and retail sectors go pear-shaped. Unemployment will soar, knocking consumer confidence. The PP will superficially dump its religious, far-right rhetoric in order to win back the swing vote. Just as the government negins to drag the economy back on course, in four years time, it will face a more centrist, Cameron style, opposition leader - Alberto Ruiz Gallardón.
"In the end very few comments were made about the positive reforms in the economy and health that Zapatero seems to have brought in his last four years."
Can you please mention two? If there is something about Zapatero is that he has not done any reform over the past 4 years when it comes to the economy. He, for instance, believes that the Euribor, what he called "euroibor" is fixed by the ECB..thats his vast knowledge of economics.
In fact, overall taxation has increased by 2% during his period.
As to the media cover..well the ³ÉÈË¿ìÊÖ is anything but right aligned.
This is the time when nationalist parties have achieved less than ever. My opinion is that it is mainly due to these voters supporting Zapatero as the main oposition against PP.
Zapatero has proved more sensitive to nationalistic issues (but I do not mean nationalists were completely happy anyway!) than Rajoy. The dialog with ETA and the Estatut in Catalonia may not have been enough for many nationalists but Zapatero showed a more open mind no these subjects than the PP would have ever offered.
I guess when facing the possibility of PP winning the elections, nationalists chose the lesser evil and voted for Zapatero.
""I think the blog offers a unbalanced view of the Spanish elections in relation to the Basque country. The dead of Mr Carrasco was preventable. There are other attacks on human rights tha are preventable too. Torture in police station, police brutality against political demostrations, banned political parties, newspaper closures, dispersion of political prisoners, etc. I am denied political participation because the Spanish state would do anything before acknowledging the right of self-determintation for the Basque Country. We have to go a long way to speak about real democracy in Spain.""
You are repeating what basque terrorist group (ETA) says.
Torture in police station-->FALSE
Police brutality against political demostrations-->FALSE
Newspaper closures-->newspaper working for the terrorist group ETA, closed following court orders.
The democracy ETA defends is: you think like I do or we'll kill you. Is that what you're defending?
"""I think the blog offers a unbalanced view of the Spanish elections in relation to the Basque country. The dead of Mr Carrasco was preventable. There are other attacks on human rights tha are preventable too. Torture in police station, police brutality against political demostrations, banned political parties, newspaper closures, dispersion of political prisoners, etc. I am denied political participation because the Spanish state would do anything before acknowledging the right of self-determintation for the Basque Country. We have to go a long way to speak about real democracy in Spain.""
You are repeating what basque terrorist group (ETA) says.
Torture in police station-->FALSE
Police brutality against political demostrations-->FALSE
Newspaper closures-->newspaper working for the terrorist group ETA, closed following court orders.
The democracy ETA defends is: you think like I do or we'll kill you. Is that what you're defending?""
No, he's just stating a real fact. If torture in police stations was inexistent we wouldn't have terrorists in hospital with a punctured lung or police officers (8) sent to court accused of torture.
It seems to me that it's the government the one applying the "with us or against us" rule when it closes newspapers or declares "illegal" some political parties. Plus not long ago a basque politician was sent to court for doing exactly the same thing that the government had been doing for the last 2 years!!
This is democracy!!
Keith (10). Your comment could perfectly have been taken from Nostradamus' Centuriae or from the Apocalypse! Certainly Spain is very likely to go through a crisis but I think you have exagerated a little. Property investors do not sell at a loss unless they are desperate for the cash. They all believe in the long term price increase (otherwise they would have never invested in property). Surely many will hold to their investments with the hope of recovering after the crisis.
To compare Gallardon with Cameron is completely wrong. I think Gallardon is centrist but I do not consider Cameron as another one. But also, Cameron's political achievements are not a match for Gallardon's.
However I agree with you that Gallardon as a PP candidate would dramatically change Spanish political arena.
The scale of the PSOE's victory must be a major disappointment to the Catholic church which led an orchestrated campaign against their liberal social policy reforms. The Vatican sees Spain as the front line in their battle against creeping secularism in Europe and can only take comfort from the fact that the weak performance of the PSOE's coalition partners may limit the scope for further social policy reforms.
Friend Gerard, why are you worried about the divide between Catalunya/Euskal Herria and the rest of the state? Many of us would be extremely happy to see this divide carried to its logical conclusion. As far as I'm concerned, the PP can keep the centre, we would be far better off without it dragging us down. Good riddance!!!!
This is to Mr. Giannir
As a socialist voter on the last election, I feel insulted from you. Are you suggesting that these crimes (11-M, by islamic terrorists; and Isaiais Carrasco murder, by ETA) were, anyway, made to make win Zapatero and his party, PSOE?