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Changed utterly

Mark Devenport | 16:01 UK time, Saturday, 26 February 2011

I'm just off air from our ³ÉÈË¿ìÊÖ Radio Ulster Election programme, reporting on the momentous Irish election. Momentous, but in some ways not surprising - if you were a reporter doing vox pops in Dublin any time in the last few months you had to ask people to form an orderly queue as they mae clear their disgust at Fianna Fail's handling of the economic crash.

So the drubbing handed out to the outgoing government could have been predicted - whats harder to foresee is how long it will take Fianna Fail to rebuild and whether they will ever regain anything like their former influence.

Fine Gael still looks likely to form a coalition with Labour. But with the economic options facing a new government still bleak it's hard to imagine their honeymoon, should they form a coalition, lasting any longer than the one enjoyed by Messrs Cameron and Clegg.

Sinn Fein will rightly be jubilant with their performance. They got a bit more than 170,000 votes in last year's Westminster election - I'm guessing they might get around 200,000 votes in this Dail poll. Given Sinn Fein's emphasis on all Ireland politics, it will be interesting to see what the pecking order of party strengths is across the island as a whole - SF, I think will still be behind Fine Gael but in front of the weakened Fianna Fail.

Of course that's just a parlour game and right now it's how votes translate into seats that will count. Sinn Fein will easily form a technical speaking group in the Dail - but how will they compare in strength to Fianna Fail?

When I heard about Martin Mansergh's poor showing I couldn't help thinking about to the day in 1994 when Gerry Adams travelled down to Government Buildings in Dublin to be welcomed in from the cold by Albert Reynolds and John Hume. The giants of nationalism gripped the hand of the outcast. Now Sinn Fein has surpassed the SDLP and has Fianna Fail in its sights. Everything has indeed changed utterly.

When Gerry Adams appeared on the programme Audrey Carville asked him if he'd miss northern politics - he told her that he "hasn't gone away, you know".

I'm off now to prepare for our teatime TV news. Tomorrow lunchtime there's more special election coverage, starting at noon, on both ³ÉÈË¿ìÊÖ Radio Ulster and ³ÉÈË¿ìÊÖ1.

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