43, 35 or 15/90?
Remember the old gag about the plane landing at Aldergrove and the pilot telling his passengers to change their watches because the local time was 1690?
Well now we could be talking about 15/90 instead.
The reason - the shake up in Westminster seats announced earlier this week by Nick Clegg, which I see that
According to this analysis by our election night psephologist Nicholas thinks that could mean the DUP losing two seats in the east and one in the west.
Where 15/90 comes into play is that the Assembly is organised on the basis of 6 Stormont seats to each Westminster constituency. So if that ratio is maintained it would deliver a 90 seat Assembly.
So whilst earlier this week Alastair Ross had us ruminating on a 43 or 35 seater Assembly a 90 strong Stormont appears far more likely.
As well as the changing boundaries we may have to cope (should it get passed on may 5th) with a switch to AV. Immediately after the election Nicholas Whyte reckoned that, if applied to this year's general election results, the AV system However he didn't think it would alter much else.
The Green MLA Brian Wilson seems to disagree. In a recent press statement he attacked AV as a "betrayal of those who have worked for many years for electoral reform. AV is no fairer than first past post" he continued "and will reinforce sectarian voting patterns in Northern Ireland." Mr Wilson argued that the AV system "would effectively eliminate centre parties and members such as Naomi Long."
Nicholas isn't convinced, but given that the boundaries are due to be changed in any case pondering this year's East Belfast results is maybe a bit of an unproductive parlour game. On the point of principle it's clear that AV would do away with all the arguments about the need for voting pacts between either the unionists or the nationalists. But would it decimate the centre parties in the way the Green MLA implies?
One party which has come to a different conclusion about AV is the SDLP. Their leader Margaret Ritchie says the STV system used in Assembly elections is her preference, but failing that she believes AV is "a clear step forward". Certainly you can see why the SDLP would be happy to be spared the kind of pressure they were subjected to over voting pacts in Fermanagh and South Belfast during the last Westminster election.
My colleague Jim Fitzpatrick will have more on the constituencty shake up on the Politics Show this Sunday. I'm away this weekend but Stephen Walker is presenting Inside Politics in my absence on ³ÉÈË¿ìÊÖ Radio Ulster. Good luck, Stephen!
I'm 
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