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Archives for February 2008

Does anyone "run" the country?

Justin Webb | 17:37 UK time, Friday, 29 February 2008

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The oddest thing about - which Barack Obama has already described as an attempt to "scare up votes" - is that the person answering the phone is fully clothed and appears to be sitting at a desk.

Meanwhile this from Sam Davis in Maryland, USA:

Justin,

When you have a few, surf over to :

The story repeats a line that occurs all too frequently in news stories, namely that the president (in this case, the Nigerian president) "runs" the country. I've seen this line in many stories, not just from the 成人快手 but many others, about many presidents and prime ministers.

It's a distortion, if not an outright falsehood, used without thinking. In no sense do presidents or prime ministers of democratic nations "run" their countries.

Truth be told, they have a difficult time just running their governments, especially with bureaucracies and parliaments and congresses with their own differing agendas also in the mix, not to mention political rivals and special interest groups.

I sent a comment to the 成人快手 website, as I sometimes do, but expect nothing but the normal autoreply.

To me this is a very serious issue, because it's one more example of how the media, unthinkingly, perpetuates ideology and become propagandists. After reading or hearing that line about presidents "running the country" over the decades, in my opinion it propagates the notion among the public at large a president or a PM "should" run the country.

And that, I believe, lays the subliminal groundwork for acceptance of greater and greater government intervention in the economy and individual lives.

Naturally, I asked whoever reads those website-generated missives to "stop it" and cited the same things you see above, but I doubt they'll throw up their hands at the 成人快手 and say, "Oh, no, now old Davis stateside over in Annapolis is onto this and we have to mend our ways."

However, it might well be a starting point for a more general discussion - perhaps on your blog? - about how subtle use of language by media folk, especially the constant repetition of something that might seem innocuous at first blush, can actually have profound effect on public perception, or the "memes" that are accepted as "truth," as Eric Drexler noted in "Engines of Creation" some 20 years back.

This strikes me as a particularly important discussion in this U.S. presidential year, when the major candidates are making all sorts of policy proposals and the media are reporting and commenting on them in all sorts of ways.

Even slight skewing now, such as that "run the country" business, results in much wider skewing later, just as the variance of even a degree off course in the initial flight of an airplane results in overshooting the destination by hundreds of miles.

"Gosh, we started off to have a constitutional republic. How did we end up with this Napoleon fellow?"

Is he right?

We certainly have a horrible over-emphasis on the Imperial Presidency - I doubt most people in the UK know or care that Congress is likely to remain Democrat controlled this year (with huge potential ramifications for whoever becomes president) and too often the US is characterised by the sitting president (BUSH ! Warmongers CLINTON ! philanderers, etc) but on the other hand presidents do matter. Don't they?

Fast Forward

Justin Webb | 22:21 UK time, Thursday, 28 February 2008

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If all this talk of Texas and Ohio et al is leaving you a little unsatisfied now and you want to fast forward to the general election campaign seems to me to be straight from October 2008 and you can substitute Hillary if you want to for the other chap because she too will have to acknowledge that the US CANNOT allow Iraq to go entirely "to hell", to use Tim Russert's elegant phrase.
And I am happy to have found - not an everyday occurence - which lays out the simple fact that it is going to be close. I still believe - as I said before this process started - that McCain can win.

Slopes off?

Justin Webb | 15:29 UK time, Thursday, 28 February 2008

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Alex van den Bergh raises a ghastly prospect particularly for those of us hoping to get a week's skiing in before the summer. He (or she) is right of course: equally it is possible, is it not, that Clinton could win the most votes in Texas but lose in terms of delegates allocated? (Because of the complexity of the system which gives extra weight to activists and areas that have voted heavily for Democrats in the past.)

I wonder about Nick Payne's suggestion that she should get personal: I have seen her do it before live audiences and she does not seem able to do it in a way that comes across as authentic.

Greta, I salute your learned contributions.

Apologies to Abby and others who have pointed out that the Nation of Islam was NOT founded by Mr Farrakhan as I incorrectly suggested.

John Lewis raises the New Hampshire Cowardice Issue as we should call it: do you think we will dare report it even if she throws in the towel and moves to Canada? I'm going to take a day off that day.

And Brett I hear what you say about Israel: I heard someone suggesting the other day that Obama had made a major mistake by failing to name Israel among America's top three allies in the world. Does it matter electorally for Obama if he does upset Jewish voters? Anyone remember the story about what James Baker is alleged to have said about the need for Jewish support for the Republican Party in his era?

Keith suggests (Obama Rolls with the Punches) that Mr Obama lets others do his dirty work for him and I thought it was indeed striking that when the Senator was asked about that statement he said airily that it was a fight "at a staff level!" What does that mean? Does he take responsibility for it or not?

This claim from K Tyson is interesting. "Obama's office in Houston is flying the Cuban flag with a big picture of Che on it." Is it true?

I read the debate on socialism in Obama on Poverty - and noted Margaret's comments in particular. I am sure many Americans who lack the time to read blogs (I sound like Hillary here) would agree. As for the debate aftermath: the first paragraph of sums it up.

But much, much more interesting - do please take a look at the West Wing video to be found - it's worth waiting for after the advert - for a fascinating explanation of why Obama and The West Wing really are linked (as someone suggested on this blog some time ago, I seem to remember).

In the spin room

Justin Webb | 08:07 UK time, Wednesday, 27 February 2008

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The entire debate in Cleveland was a test of whether Obama can be attacked with profit. The answer: No.

Take as an example the spat over Louis Farrakhan (the founder of the Nation of Islam) who has endorsed Obama - an endorsement that is less than welcome, coming as it does from a man who has also attacked Jewish people in a manner that leaves little doubt about his organisation's anti-semitism.

So does Barack Obama reject that endorsement? Well he failed to get to that word - I felt he was oddly weak in his initial response. But pressed by her, he got there magisterially: Denounce and reject, he said, if that's what Mrs Clinton wants. It left her looking a little foolish.

The truth was that he had made an initial stab at an answer that was rather unsatisfactory; but he spun it around and ended up looking funny, cool and victorious. As usual. The New York Times puts it like this: "At a point when Mrs Clinton apparently saw an opportunity - when she said it was not enough for Mr Obama to simply denounce Mr Farrakhan; he needed to reject his support - Mr Obama did not take the bait. he said.

Enough debates now. I wonder if, for most Democrats, this is the over-riding impression left after Cleveland. It has been fun. It has been invigorating. But now it could get boring. And damaging. And sickening. At the end of the spin-room time, as everyone was going, I asked Mark Penn (Hillary's chief strategist) whether the game was up if they lost Ohio and Texas. Not a bit of it: they would fight on, he said.

If they lose both, I think they can't, frankly, but what if they win one? It is not looking good.

Obama rolls with the punches - and talks like Peter Sellers?

Justin Webb | 16:53 UK time, Tuesday, 26 February 2008

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I asked the Senator this morning about the piece in the New York Times which suggested that the kitchen sink might be thrown at Obama by the Clinton campaign.

His answer was a study in cool dullness: he will not get into a fight. Even on the subject of he was pretty low-key.

So is that the approach for the debate as well? Might he just roll with the punches? Might he talk about "campaigns we can be proud of when we look back on them" as he did at his press conference this morning?

Meanwhile, is interesting, I think. I have some sympathy with Gideon's inability to be moved by the Obama rhetoric, though I think you have to be there to get it. Great speaking is not about content alone after all, it is about timing, and tone, and the ability to catch moments of audience appreciation and build them into something.

He can do all those things - that's why he's a great speaker. The content, as Gideon says, is little different to that parodied by Peter Sellers all those years ago...

UPDATE: By the way, anyone with a serious interest in what's happening in Ohio and Texas or who thinks they know what WILL happen, might enjoy .

Boys (and Girls) on the Bus

Justin Webb | 09:28 UK time, Tuesday, 26 February 2008

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The Obama plane is quite cosy - used to be a Gulfstream but is now a 737 - and has developed the semi-hysterical atmosphere the travelling press give any presidential campaign once they have all been doing it too long. Scout, from New York City, a stills photographer with Polaris, has been taking shots of Barack Obama for FOURTEEN MONTHS. Her is as cool as she is.

On take-off for our short flight from Dayton to Cleveland, the journalists try to roll an orange up the aisle into the first class section - the 成人快手 effort is hopelessly inadequate, making only a couple of yards, but Bonney from Fox has mastered it and scores what appears to be a bull鈥檚-eye. Does a long, languid, expensively shirted arm in first class gather it up?

Minutes before he had been down at the back for a visit and exchanged pleasantries with us all (no politics on the plane) with the same easy, comfortable style you see on stage in front of thousands of people. Does he look presidential? Well, yes, is the honest answer. But then he should do - he is winning, after all. The psychology of the candidate's plane is as true today as it was in 1972, as described in the wonderful book The Boys on the Bus by Timothy Crouse. Winning candidates are relaxed and happy, ergo, so are their staff, ergo so are the journalists who get better treated and better access etc.

Meanwhile, hours to go to the big showdown - dare she attack him as seen over the weekend and described in terms of on-going strategy
and can it work?

Obama on poverty

Justin Webb | 21:14 UK time, Monday, 25 February 2008

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Greetings now from another huge rally at a university in Cincinnati - a sports hall filled to the rafters.

Thunderous support for an Obama speech which contained the interesting line that he is "a supporter of capitalism!"

That's a relief - America's coming socialist revolution is on hold after all.

BUT "If you are working in this country you should not be poor," is another line - and that idea, it seems to me, would be genuinely revolutionary if it caught on.

America does not believe in entrenched poverty, class-based poverty. But this is a society in which, if things don鈥檛 turn out right, you can fall very hard and land very low. Not that this nation is proud of poverty - but I have always thought there is a semi-willing acceptance of it as a corollary of the great emphasis given to wealth-creation here.

If every working American was well off, the US would - as some have pointed out - look more like Canada or even Western Europe.

Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton in her own inimitable style.

And though with rather more effect perhaps:

"Barack Obama is an awfully talented politician. But could the American people, by November, decide that for all his impressive qualities, Obama tends too much toward the preening self-regard of Bill Clinton, the patronizing elitism of Al Gore and the haughty liberalism of John Kerry?"

I read those words as thousands of joy-filled people let out an ear-splitting cheer at the end of his speech. Last words: "... and we will change the world!" No Baracklash here...

Obama's rapid response

Justin Webb | 17:55 UK time, Monday, 25 February 2008

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obama_ap_blog203b.jpgIn Cincinnati with Obama and all the talk is of tribal gear following the appearance of of the candidate helpfully circulated (allegedly) by Clinton aides who thought it would be sad if the world didn't see how well, um, foreign, he could look.

Dirty tricks or a fuss about nothing? Here in Team Obama they are taking it very seriously - an example of the post- world, I guess.

A senior staff member just winked at me and said "boy, you've picked the right moment to come on the bus鈥" I think we have - the interesting thing is not the Clinton attack (the sarcasm and the photo) but the strength and sureness of touch of the Obama riposte.

Of course you can wear what you like...

Coming home to Middle America

Justin Webb | 03:34 UK time, Monday, 25 February 2008

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Respect to Maureen Dowd of the New York Times for , describing the over-spending of the Clinton campaign as being like that of "a hedge fund manager in a flat-screen TV store".

, is it not? I remember going to Texas years ago when the Democrats were being re-districted out of power for what seemed like a generation. This piece - calmly - suggests they might be back. And of course the nature of the support, the mores of the people who represent the party, has an effect on the party itself. If Texans become important in the party, a Texan take on life might compete with that of San Francisco or Manhattan.

It's not just that policies affect where support comes from - the process is circular and the geographical spread of support will affect future policy. Amid all the talk of Barack Obama being a lefty - a Canadian even - there is a bigger picture of a Democratic Party coming home to Middle America if the wins, congressional, presidential et al, were to be huge in November.

I am writing this in a hotel in Cincinnati waiting to hook up with Team Obama for a magic carpet ride across the wonderful state of Ohio. Not that I have yet been offered even the tiniest sip of Kool-Aid but I wonder if the extent of the certainty of the Obama victory is being under-reported out of - for want of a better word - cowardice?

"The pundit class hasn't been quicker to point all this out because of what happened in New Hampshire. A lot of us looked foolish by all but writing Hillary off when she lost the Iowa caucuses. As we should have known, stuff happens in politics. But that was early. The stuff that would have to happen now would be on a different order of magnitude. It's time to stop overlearning the lesson of New Hampshire."

Omigod. He won and nobody's even noticed...

The Baracklash

Justin Webb | 22:18 UK time, Friday, 22 February 2008

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I wonder whether most readers will find something depressing about the Baracklash (I hereby copyright this word) we see in the US and , with even joining in.

Gerry Baker et al make perfectly well-argued cases and it is not that I am in love with Obama (see previous entries), but consumers of journalism often complain about the see-saw effect of building up figures and then doing them down; something unconducive, they claim, to proper consideration of their underlying virtues. So, Hillary Clinton was inevitable before she was toast etc, etc...

Having said that, the effect is caused by the perfectly legitimate desire to take sceptical aim at something that is flying - and before it flies, frankly, who cares?

Meanwhile, thank goodness the - much addressed by Mitt Romney, I seem to remember - have been given a voice.

On plagiarism and humanity

Justin Webb | 03:25 UK time, Friday, 22 February 2008

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Two key moments in this debate: one a win for Obama and the other for Clinton. On the plagiarism line (did he steal lines from Governor Deval Patrick) he sent her packing: "The notion that I plagiarised from one of my national co-chairs who gave me the line and I used it, is silly." Her line - "Change you can Xerox" - sounded cheap. It would have worked well in the old style British House of Commons when everyone had had a couple of stiff drinks, but bombed in Austin. I saw Jeff Toobin of CNN say she appeared to regret the line even as she made it and surely he was right.

But she ended strongly: a story about seeing people who had truly suffered and a moral about how nothing she has suffered in politics could compare turned into a rather moving little acknowledgement of how well off she was and he was as well. In a sense, the words did not matter - it was the humanity that counted. I am honoured to be here with Barack Obama, she said, and she appeared to mean it. "We will both be all right," and, she added: "I just hope we will be able to say the same about the American people." It was not an attack; it was much more effective - it was an effort to give pause, to provoke thought, to slow the rush to Obama and turn it around.

Having said that, I remember reporting after the first debate, back in whenever it was, that Mrs Clinton walked it, head and shoulders above the others.

For a detailed take see .

And for an odd little side-effect of the Obama surge I liked .

I have just had an email from the Obama camp claiming - in effect - that that Hillary strong ending was itself plagiarised from John Edwards! Did she ask his permission?

UPDATE: I liked - written before the debate but even more relevant after it, particularly the last line.

Democrats abroad

Justin Webb | 22:51 UK time, Thursday, 21 February 2008

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And for those following real votes, how about this from via an American living in the UK?

"Oddly, Hillary Clinton received 100% of the one vote cast in the Congo, which was the focus of legislation passed by Obama. Obama also won 100% of the vote in the British Virgin Islands, Cameroon, Croatia, Estonia, Lithuania, Macedonia and Madagascar, while Clinton won 100% of the vote in Liechtenstein."

Follow the money

Justin Webb | 15:40 UK time, Thursday, 21 February 2008

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WASHINGTON: Follow the money - as Deep Throat did not say:

BOOKIES TAKE ON HILLARY

HILLARY Clinton is now the highest price she's ever been to win the race for the White House, .

The British firm have pushed her out to 6/1 from 11/2 to follow in her husband's footsteps and she's now a massive 7/2 to win the Democratic nomination.

Ladbrokes spokesman Robin Hutchison said: "We can't tempt anyone to have a bet on Hillary at the moment - she's totally friendless."

Barack Obama is now 8/11 to be named next US President and 5/6 to follow his 10 successive Primary wins with another in Ohio.

LATEST BETTING

Ohio Democratic Primary

Barack Obama 5/6
Hillary Clinton 5/6

Election Winner

Democrats 1/2
Republicans 6/4
Independent 20/1

Who will be elected U.S. President?

Barack Obama 8/11
John McCain 6/4
Hillary Clinton 6/1
Michael Bloomberg 20/1
Mike Huckabee 33/1
Ron Paul 150/1

Democratic Candidate

Barack Obama 1/6
Hillary Clinton 7/2

Republican Candidate

John McCain 1/50
Mike Huckabee 14/1
Ron Paul 200/1

Republican Vice Presidential Nominee

Tim Pawlenty 4/1
Charlie Crist 6/1
Mark Sandford 8/1
Mike Huckabee 8/1
Condoleezza Rice 12/1
Joe Lieberman 12/1
Mitt Romney 12/1
Haley Barbour 14/1
Sonny Perdue 14/1
Bobby Jindal 16/1
Chuck Hagel 16/1
Kay Bailey Hutchinson 16/1
David Petraeus 20/1
Fred Thompson 20/1
Rudy Giuliani 20/1
Jim Demint 25/1
John Kasich 25/1
Lindsay Graham 25/1
Richard Burr 25/1
Steve Forbes 25/1
Colin Powell 33/1
J C Watts 33/1
Jeb Bush 33/1
John Thune 33/1
Michael Steele 33/1
Phil Gramm 33/1
Rob Portman 33/1
Sarah Palin 33/1
Michael Bloomberg 50/1
Mike Pence 50/1
Mike Pence 50/1
Ron Paul 100/1

Thinking about a revolution

Justin Webb | 08:29 UK time, Thursday, 21 February 2008

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I have seen on the Cuba situation. Those who expect things to carry on much as they are for years to come may well be making a big mistake.

My colleague Kevin Connolly - a former 成人快手 correspondent in Warsaw and Moscow - was pointing within moments of the Castro news breaking, to the fact that many people thought the eastern bloc could carry on with the junior reformer crowd in charge, after the real masters had left the stage.

McCain thinkingIt does not happen. That is what history tells us. Barack, Hillary, and John need to give serious thought to what to do if Cuba implodes.

Actually, maybe Hillary - that is unless she pulls something out of the bag in the CNN debate on Thursday night as .

Meanwhile, does anyone have an answer for Boy on the subject of democracy and Pakistan?

Clinton's struggle

Justin Webb | 05:40 UK time, Wednesday, 20 February 2008

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MIAMI: I must say, I am finding it increasingly difficult to visualise a Clinton victory. What would have to happen? A turn-around in Ohio and Texas, I suppose, and a collapse in Barack Obama's support in all subsequent contests. Looks unlikely in the extreme. As our colleagues at ABC put it:

Hillary Clinton speaks at a rally in Youngstown, Ohio, 19 Feb 2008"Clinton struggled in her base groups - barely winning white women, losing less-educated and lower-income voters - while Obama swept up younger voters, winning those under 30 by one of his biggest margins yet. He beat Clinton by 31 points among independents in Wisconsin's open primary, as well as by seven points among Democrats."

Anyway, here in Miami we are interested still in the future of an even less politically predictable contest and the Miami Herald has the detail you would expect the Cuban authorities could still make.

I wonder if they will opt for change. Something's going on...

Cuban question

Justin Webb | 18:58 UK time, Tuesday, 19 February 2008

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MIAMI: I've just arrived in Little Havana, Miami, to find out what Cuban exiles make of this morning's news that Fidel Castro is stepping down.

The honest answer is that while there are a few grizzled veterans of the struggle who are more excited than they have been at any stage of the last 50 years, the crowd is pretty thin, and so younger Cubans have gone to work as normal. This is that there would have been 20 years ago at the news that Fidel was gone from power.

Having said that, the people I've talked to are really confident that there is going to be real in Cuba soon - and I guess the question for America's next president is whether that change would come more quickly , or without it.

Borrowed words

Justin Webb | 02:40 UK time, Tuesday, 19 February 2008

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The spat over whether Obama plagiarised the words of Deval Patrick - the black Governor of Massachusetts - is almost too ludicrous to be serious. The idea that Obama is a phoney - that he simply copied this movement from others - is so plainly barmy as to make me wonder whether the Clinton people are deluded or desperate. The charge is also - I can reveal - old. 成人快手 senior producer Adi Raval - note the date!

Deval Patrick

They will have to do better than that. In Texas meanwhile .

And a well-informed but hardly surprising glimpse of what lies in store for Obama if he manages to topple her .

The other issue of the moment: did John McCain shoot himself in the foot by seeking and receiving the backing of President Bush Senior?

It was a rather elderly gathering to be sure - not as energetic as an Obama rally. Not utterly future oriented. Yet who knows what will be cool in November. America looks at the moment like No Country for Old Men - but change could be yesterday's cry by then...

Al-Qaeda's choice

Justin Webb | 16:21 UK time, Monday, 18 February 2008

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Bedd Gelert and Vagueofgodalming may well be right about Rees Mogg.

Barack Obama with secret service agentsMy own concern about is this. He writes: "There are, of course, hypothetical events that could change everything. There could be an attack on Mr Obama himself, but he is protected by the Secret Service.

"There could be an action by al-Qaeda, which would refocus American anxiety on the threat of terror. But al-Qaeda is itself highly political. It would probably not be in its interest to secure the election of Senator John McCain. Al-Qaeda may be unpredictable, but it would be a mistake for it to interfere in American politics, even if it had the capacity to do so."

But that is manifestly untrue, is it not?

Islamic terrorists want war. They want suffering - among others and their own people alike.

They would surely surmise that McCain will give them what they want. Bin Laden himself intervened with what many thought was the effect of keeping President Bush in power in 2004 with that weird tape just before the poll.

I think al-Qaeda would back McCain - that is not an argument for or against America backing him, but it seems to me that the vague assumption that the terrorists would back a lefty is lazy thinking...

Apparatchiks rule

Justin Webb | 09:11 UK time, Monday, 18 February 2008

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One of the grand old men of British journalism has been bitten, I see,

And in the other major British paper is probably the view of most American Democrats (and democrats) as well: (*)

"Since the beginning of January, the Democratic party in the US has held elections that have provided great excitement and held the attention of much of the world. We are about to see if its commitment to democracy is equally impressive. Having started this election season with scenes of rural folk gathering in frontrooms and schoolhalls to stand up and be counted, the final decision is now likely to be made by party apparatchiks accountable only to themselves. Or worse still, the courts."

So what to do?

I see Barack Obama thought it worthwhile taking a long detour away from the current campaign battlegrounds to see John Edwards: might an Edwards endorsement help in Ohio perhaps?

Meanwhile as journalists trail around hoping to be shouted at (and thus made famous at least in their own newsrooms) by President Clinton, it seems ordinary

No mention of Bin Laden

Justin Webb | 18:28 UK time, Friday, 15 February 2008

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WASHINGTON DC: In an the Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff revealed two interesting facts: that he is "comfortable" with the status of Pakistan's nukes - "they are in safe hands," he told me, with people "professionally and specifically focused on this".

And secondly, that Osama Bin Laden is now so unimportant, or so low down a list heavy with other concerns, that he did not even get a mention when Admiral Mullen held talks in Pakistan a few days ago.

Not mentioned? That is what he told me. America's senior soldier, holding meetings close to where the nation's top enemy is located and nobody mentions his name? Truly the world has moved on...

Osama Bin LadenUPDATE: An add to those thoughts... The admiral's office (keen blog readers!) call to point out that he himself does not regard Bin Laden as unimportant - of course - the question of his importance or lack of it was posed by me, and the admiral made it clear he is still a high priority.

In fact, I asked whether the trail had gone cold and the admiral said No. But my point is that the whole Wanted Dead or Alive thing, which so dominated the early days of the hunt (in fact that very phrase "the hunt for Bin Laden" sounds rather quaint now doesn鈥檛 it?) is no longer something that takes up the time of senior people.

My colleague and neither mentioned Bin Laden: he has disappeared mentally as well as physically...

Gore's beard and Obama's poetry

Justin Webb | 21:52 UK time, Thursday, 14 February 2008

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Huge apologies to all those who have had trouble posting - we will try to sort it out.

Al Gore sporting a beard in 2001Chris the Tory you are not alone of course - in fact, I ought to remember my own posts because you remind me that people like you were the subject not long ago. And Joe Ware - please, No! Too yesterday to be cool. Too last year in fact. And liable to grow a beard. And never ran anything except the Vice President's office. Etc, etc. Bet the endorsement will come though in order to keep him seen at the right Hollywood parties.

meanwhile has some wonderful Clinton camp detail.

Lisa, you may well be right about Obama and the point about thoughtful versus uncertain: this is the kind of thing that hearing a debate (as I did) rather than watching tends to accentuate - hesitation does not work on radio.

Dr Aliu is one of several people who think they have detected an anti-Obama bias in this blog: I have searched my conscience and found none - honest! This is for him - and for in the Times of London no less (sorry it's a few days old - I missed it).

By the way the issue of how to make a political speech is a live one back in my homeland - where parliamentary life generally makes oratory rather finer than it has been in recent years in the US. I agree with this piece by one of the UK's foremost bloggers about the autocue (the glass one that you are not meant to be able to see) which I think damages John McCain, who looks a bit glassy-eyed sometimes when he stares out at the crowd. Does Obama even use one? Or Hillary? Are US politicians in fact here...

Crisis control

Justin Webb | 20:43 UK time, Wednesday, 13 February 2008

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The Clintons have a on their hands, of that there is no doubt. Historically, they are rather good at dealing with such crises - but they'll need all their resources of guile and backbone now. This is not a Paula Jones, this is a full Lewinsky.

debate_afp203b.jpgOn a conference call to reporters on Wednesday afternoon, the Clinton team - Penn et al - made clear their number one priority was to get Obama to debate Hillary long and often in the weeks ahead. This makes sense for all sorts of reasons but chief among them, it seems to me, is that she often seems shrill and strained when speaking to large crowds, whereas he looks measured and compelling.

On the small screen, though, he can look ponderous (I know many disagree and I know I only heard the last debate on the radio etc etc) and uncertain. "You are likeable enough, Hillary" has to be one of the worst lines of any of the 987 debates so far held.

I see, meanwhile, that Kenyans and lefty Brits are not the only foreigners to be excited about .

And for those who think of American election ads as bland and dire and depressing - is priceless...

Turning a corner?

Justin Webb | 04:24 UK time, Wednesday, 13 February 2008

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WASHINGTON: Watching the post-game speeches (his and hers) you cannot but wonder whether the series is from Mrs Clinton.

obamaarm_ap203b.jpgIt is not about math (or maths) or about mojo or momentum. As Tom Brokaw put it on MSNBC - almost as an aside but the point is a vital one, surely - the problem for the Clintons is that attacking an upstart, a pretender, is relatively easy to do without necessarily being offensive to the wider public. You can still look serene and on the right side of history.

But attacking an icon - a black icon - becomes way more difficult. The man is the same. The policies have the same flaws. But the perception of your attacks is altered by the glory that others have attached to him. Just upping the ante will not do. In fact it is difficult to see what WILL do.

It really does look as if Democratic voters might have turned a corner: is the Associated Press take on the exit polls in Virginia, suggesting that granny is now backing Obama, as is Jimmy who works at Dunkin' Donuts (great coffee) and all manner of people who previously backed Hillary.

Texas voting rules

Justin Webb | 15:28 UK time, Tuesday, 12 February 2008

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WASHINGTON DC: As we await , Democrats with strong stomachs might want to look ahead to March, and these thoughts from the on the voting rules; rules that, according to the paper, might make things tricky for Mrs Clinton, because votes count for more in areas with a history of strong support for Democratic candidates:

"In the heavily urban, African-American districts of state Sens. Rodney Ellis of Houston and Royce West of Dallas, a good voter turnout in the past two elections means a combined total of 13 delegates are at stake in the two districts on Election Day.

Obama nationally has been winning eight out of 10 black voters, according to network exit polls.

But in the heavily Hispanic districts of state Sens. Juan Hinojosa of McAllen and Eddie Lucio Jr. of Brownsville, election turnout was low, and a combined total of seven delegates are at stake.

Clinton has been taking six of 10 Hispanic votes nationally.

So, a big South Texas win might not mean as much for Clinton as a big win for Obama in the two black districts."

Here is the .

UPDATE: For an inside look at the angst and joy of decision making among the suburban moms of Washington DC and Maryland - I bring you

Queasy super delegates?

Justin Webb | 04:39 UK time, Tuesday, 12 February 2008

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Colin wins the prize for making a sharp point with fewest words. Still wrong, Colin, but I salute your brevity.

To Nick Payne, I would suggest that the super delegates are beginning to feel a bit queasy - if, as seems increasingly likely, they are called upon to sit on party democracy. But that, of course, was the purpose of the super delegates so maybe they ought to have the courage of their convictions... It is odd, is it not, that these systems are put in place and then repudiated when they work as they are intended to work?

John, I think that answers one of your questions as well - and the point you make about Hillary being Royal is maybe one of her biggest underlying problems.

I like Peter Piperrino鈥檚 point that New York and California might suffer the political equivalent of a fashion disaster by discovering they picked the wrong side... Surely the nation should rally round to ensure THIS IS NOT ALLOWED TO HAPPEN!

I suspect the with Huckabee crying foul, it would seem with good reason, might come down to a misunderstanding on the part of the Washington state Republican Party Chairman Luke Esser.

He thought this was your father鈥檚 sleepy primary season: maybe they don鈥檛 get the papers up in the north-west. He did not realise, in other words, that this extraordinary season is about COUNTING (metaphorically and literally) and taking the counting seriously.

2008 is about re-birth on both sides of the aisle and woe-betide anyone who gets in front of the bandwagon. Huckabee will not win but his supporters need to be heard. This is not the year for voter suppression or vote suppression. Nor is it a year for prediction, as makes horribly clear.

I do think polls get a bad press though: post-New Hampshire it was as if they had deliberately misled people. They did not: they were wrong and the dedicated folks who run them will come up with better models for the future.

Americans are often told - and Mitt Romney appears to believe - that Europe is post-religious. He will be cheered no doubt by the Archbishop of Canterbury's : a position by Christopher Hitchens. Seems to me this spat should give pause to those Huckafundamentalists who seriously think the Bible should supplant the US constitution. Secular government is surely a blessing.

A weekend of voting - and shopping

Justin Webb | 03:42 UK time, Monday, 11 February 2008

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This is best and wittiest take I have seen so far on the and the Clinton spin of that and .

Hilary Clinton in Florida, 29 Jan 2008History will relate that the wheels came off the Clinton bus somewhere around the time she showed up in Florida for that fake victory speech (Florida delegates, remember, were not to be counted by the party because it was a rogue early primary and none of the candidates campaigned there) which even nervy CNN eventually came round to viewing as a bit fishy.


And was the bus sent careering over the ravine by this Sunday's ?

Rich is British. Not, so far as I know, by nationality, but by dint of his aggressive and occasionally tendentious not to say truth-embroidering style, which frankly as a Brit I find rather refreshing: it reminds me of columnists in the Old Country who can be relied on to search for facts to support a case only after making the case with both barrels blazing.

Anyway Rich is pretty devastating and (I am just guessing here) will have made some senior Clinton people pretty sick as they toyed with their kedgeree on Sunday morning.

Meanwhile I am back in DC after a weekend in New York during which I met almost the entire population of the UK, over for a quick shop.

Tourism is a funny kind of economic boon; it plainly works in the sense that it brings in money and boosts the service industries, but arguably (look at the UK over recent decades) it has a hollowing-out effect on the morale of a nation.

Manhattan Mall in New York CityWe want to exist at a deeper level than simply to be gawped at. Humans want to build things, create stuff. New York was not originally created for tourism neither can it be sustained by tourism. Manhattan is not America of course (my son's atlas says that New York is the "Cultural Capital" of the US - surely not?) but the influx of foreigners lured by cheap consumer goods almost all made in the Far East does not look to me like a sign that all is well with the US economy.

America should be expensive to visit; a shining shopping mall on a hill, not a bazaar. Not that I am complaining about the weakness of the dollar, I just hope the fabled ingenuity of American enterprise is up to the challenge of this century.

And that brings me to McCain/Huckabee.

I don't think so.

One knows nothing about economics (or so the Arizona senator used to say) and the other nothing about science (he alone among us is unrelated to the apes) - I cannot see a majority of Americans this year regarding that as progress, evolution, however charming the two men are.

Unless of course Hillary and Bill implode and take the whole Democratic Party down with them.

Value for Romney?

Justin Webb | 21:18 UK time, Thursday, 7 February 2008

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is the clearest exposition I have seen of the (lack of) choices available to the Republican Party now: advice that the party rallies round and takes the medicine if that is not too much of a mixture of metaphors...

puts the Romney campaign spending in perspective:

deflated Romney thunder stick"Republican campaign operatives call it the Gramm-o-meter, the money a candidate spends per delegate won, in honor of Phil Gramm, the former Texas senator who spent $25 million and won just 10 delegates, or $2.5 million per, in 1996.

"By Republican strategist Alex Vogel's calculation, Mitt Romney is giving Gramm a run for his money. The former Massachusetts governor has spent $1.16 million per delegate, a rate that would cost him $1.33 billion to win the nomination.

"By contrast, Mike Huckabee's campaign has been the height of efficiency. Delegates haven't yet been officially apportioned, but roughly speaking, each $1 million spent by Huckabee has won him 20 delegates."

But will he be back to spend more cash in the future?

I hope he comes back to the race next time with a slightly improved view of his neighbours to the east.

"Europe is facing a demographic disaster. That is the inevitable product of weakened faith in the Creator, failed families, disrespect for the sanctity of human life and eroded morality..." This is what he said today about my home continent.

I must say, the morality point is hard to take. I much prefer living in the United States, but the idea that Europeans are somehow immoral - or that European society is morally flawed in comparison with the US - seems to me to be bizarre.

There: I have written about Mitt Romney without even mentioning his faith...

Some answers...

Justin Webb | 19:50 UK time, Thursday, 7 February 2008

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WASHINGTON DC: Today's events have prevented me considering your questions.

I had a look at some readers' questions last night, though - the ones collected by the website's team, before I asked for questions via the blog.

Another day I'll try to answer some of those too, but here are my answers to the first batch:

Q How do parties decide on the delegates in those states where they did not conduct primaries or caucuses, and who selects these people? Are they completely free in their choice?
Werner Radtke, Paderborn, Germany

A The answer is that all states hold some form of competition: it is just that they sometimes hold the Republican and the Democratic sessions on different days. But every American (even, on the Democratic side, those overseas) has the right to take part in the process.

Q Which Democratic candidate is better placed to beat McCain, who seems to be the front runner for the Republicans? The Republicans have hinted that they wanted Clinton because she seems easier to beat in the final race for the presidency. What do you think?
Mim Sekandi, Edmonton, Canada

A My feeling is that Mrs Clinton is easier to beat - there is less of a difference between her and him, and while she would do well with her own party base I think, he would steal many independents and those who simply cannot abide the Clintons. So, Obama for a win it seems to me.

Q Do you think Bill Clinton has helped or hurt the Hilary Clinton campaign thus far?
Matthew Hurst, Los Angeles

A He has helped her and hurt her in equal measure: in South Carolina he hurt her at least in terms of the short-term aim of winning the state. But maybe his attacks on Obama had the effect of bringing the Illinois senator down from the heights, made him less of an untouchable star, and took away some of his wider appeal. I really think it is unknowable at the moment: and will one day be the subject of a doctoral thesis or two!

Q Is there any chance of Clinton askimg Obama to become Vice-President or of Obama asking Clinton to do the same?
Terry Brennan, Liverpool, England

A Yes, every chance she will ask him, if he continues to chase her all the way to the convention in the summer - because he will need to be bought off, and he brings people to the voting booth she cannot reach. That is also true of her for him, but I suspect he might go for a white man who can win him some states as well.

Q Could we have a situation equivalent to a by-election for the Democrats if the result is a tie? What happens?
Henry Farotade, Lagos,Nigeria

A It cannot be a tie - because some superdelegates can change their minds, and the pressure on them to do to so would be too huge to ignore. The problem is that a close-fought battle would lead to great bitterness and would remind many Democrats of the Bush 2000 election result, where the courts get involved. This is where the two candidates arrange some kind of deal to avoid such a struggle.

Q How will all the late independent voters sway the course of this election in the long run? Voters like me will make a decision at the end, and would this really affect the outcomes if the delegates have already made their respective decisions?
Raquel, San Francisco, California, USA

A Well you cannot over-rule the delegates! But independent voters are the sexy force this time round are they not? McCain would need them and so would Obama. And Hillary will do her best to get them, or risk going down with only her base onside. So I think you are in the driving seat...

Q Is there any sense over there, from voters, journalists or party members, that at 71 (and a half) years of age Senator McCain is too old for the nomination? He would be 72 by the time of the inauguration and 80 by the end of a potential second term, pretty old in modern political terms.
James Loew, London, England

A Oh yes, there certainly is. It was picked up strongly in the exit polls on Super Tuesday and it matters down the line, however much McCain might make light of it. The view of Grover Norquist - a party bigwig I was talking to this week - is that McCain might well do some deal for a one-term "fix the mess" presidency and then agree to step aside.

Q Is there any difference between the Republican and Democrat nomination process?
Asif Akhteruzzaman, Dhaka, Bangladesh

A There are huge differences of detail but overall the process is pretty similar: both parties are electing delegates to a convention at the end of the summer when the formal vote will be taken for the nominee. One piece of detail that matters this year though - while the Republicans have several winner-takes-all states, the Democrats elect delegates proportionally in all their contests, thus ensuring in 2008 that it goes on and on and on and on and on...

Q Do you think the Obama surge has gone as far as it can? Sure, he won states where there is a strong African-American presence and other smaller states but he is losing where it counts - Massachusetts, New York, New Jersey, California.
Michael Pearson, Nantucket, USA

A There is a legitimate view, I think, that Barack Obama picks up the kind of support that does not necessarily translate into a general election victory. So he won in Georgia and North Dakota but the Democrats are not likely to get those states in the bag in November. He also tends to win wealthier people (nothing wrong with that!) but his failure to excite the blue-collar base of the party is a problem for him. Having said that, he is incredibly well-funded now and he is trying to change not only the US but the mode of selection of candidates, so I am not going to bet against him...

Q I have been following the Super Tuesday elections, but what I don't understand is that Mr Obama has won 13 states and Mrs Cliton 8, so why is Mr Obama not a winner since he got more states? Could you please shed more light on this?
Moses Chama, St-Petersburg, Russia

A Yes it's easy: this election was for delegates (a certain number from each state based on the population) and the number of delegates is what counts. So he won more states but she won bigger states (California and New York for instance) and so more delegates. One issue though: it may be that the number of delegates will be quite even at the end of the process of counting, in which case it is a draw - although please see the answer above for why it might not be!!

Q I would like to know if you think the American media is showing bias and if so, toward which candidate?
Sherry Smith, Phoenix United States

A Not conscious bias, but McCain and Obama are friendly to the press and love is a powerful weapon...

Q Can the party hierarchy override the final delegate votes? For example, if Clinton wins the required delegates before August, could the party still opt to put Obama up as its presidential candidate (likewise for Mccain and Romney)?
Umran, London, UK

A No. Though on the Democrat side, what would happen if Hillary Clinton needed the delegates from Florida to win but those delegates remained barred by the party? (They were barred because Florida held its primary too early and was punished.) The answer is that she could go to court to force the Florida delegates back in (she won there) and have them elect her. Far-fetched? Maybe, but this has been an election of surprises. It could yet end in court.

Romney departs

Justin Webb | 17:48 UK time, Thursday, 7 February 2008

WASHINGTON DC: In a speech he is making around now Mitt Romney intends to say: "I hate to lose. But if I fight on, I would forestall the launch of a national campaign and make it more likely that Senator Clinton or (Barack) Obama would win in November."

romney_ap203.jpgSo he will depart leaving only Mike Huckabee, Ron Paul and John McCain in the race - but only McCain with any hope of winning.

The 71-year-old has made it.

Mitt Romney looked at one stage last year as if he might be the answer to Republican prayers.

He had a background as a governor - he had run something - but he'd also been a very successful businessman, he had worked in the private sector.

There were problems though - first he is a Mormon, and there is some resistance, particularly among evangelical Christians, to a faith that many Americans regard as eccentric.

But he also had difficulty convincing his party that he held strong beliefs on some very important subjects. He appeared to change his tune on abortion rights, on immigration, and on gun ownership, to suit his presidential aspirations, and ultimately the party didn't buy it.

Mitt Romney is very wealthy - his fortune has been estimated at around $200m (拢100m) and he used millions of those dollars of his own cash to fund his campaign.

It is interesting that the cash did not buy success.

Only politics

Justin Webb | 04:55 UK time, Thursday, 7 February 2008

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WASHINGTON DC: While all the fuss on the Republican side is focused on the crazies in the world of talk radio, there are other Republicans sharpening their knives. People like Dick Armey - the former leader of the party in the House of Representatives - who tells me the anti-McCain forces are small and have nowhere to go.

Armey - an affable Texan - really does see the McCain ascendency as a chance to see off the people he thinks have damaged the party: the Bill Frists, the Tom DeLays, in fact all the forces of social conservatism who hijacked the party in the early part of the century. I wonder whether the "civil war" might be rather short and easily won by Armey and those of his opinion - there is something rather unserious about people who want to prosecute the war in Iraq but will vote for Mrs Clinton in a hissy fit brought on by dislike of the senator from Arizona.

By the way, thanks to Alex for the (long) thought-provoking post on Obama. I am thinking about it: I must say, the news that Mrs Clinton is reaching in her own pocket does make you wonder whether she is as in control of events as Mark Penn et al would have us believe. I am interested too in what Tyson P says about votes counting this time - a fair point that democracy is actually about arguments as well as the coming together to get things done stuff. Carol Felton seems to think I don鈥檛 like Hillary (I thought we were in her pay or something) which just goes to show that it is possible to upset Democrats of all stripes without trying to...

I like of the hypocrisy of some of McCain's critics. And this on the ability of political parties and individuals within them to kiss and make-up when necessary.

Armey told me a great story about two Republican ladies who had a fist-fight over Bush senior and Reagan when they were battling it out in the late seventies. Then, when the fuss was settled and Reagan picked Bush as his VP, all was smiles and the two ladies were best of friends.

It is only politics.

Ask me a question

Justin Webb | 22:08 UK time, Wednesday, 6 February 2008

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WASHINGTON DC: As I said in the early hours of the morning, it was a night that decided nothing. A night that posed more questions than it answered.

I'd like to hear what questions you are asking, and to have a go at answering some of them.

So please write to me using the comment form below.

Replies tomorrow.

Did Obama really win?

Justin Webb | 15:53 UK time, Wednesday, 6 February 2008

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WASHINGTON DC: In all the post-match analysis, one story strikes me as a very big deal because it is about facts on the ground, as it were, and it will change the tone of the coverage on the Democratic side if it turns out to be true.

It is the suggestion - to put it baldly - !

Night of political passion

Justin Webb | 08:05 UK time, Wednesday, 6 February 2008

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Hillary Clinton at her Super Tuesday election night rally in New York WASHINGTON DC: This is a night that but will go down in history nonetheless. It is a night of political passion - a night of reinvigoration of the political muscles that have become so wasted during the Bush years.

Is it the night the Republican party - 1964 anyone? - stares into the abyss? It is the night the Democrats wonder whether it is sometimes possible to have too much of a good thing. It is the night that Hillary Clinton wonders where the money is going to come from now...

Nastiness ahead?

Justin Webb | 04:47 UK time, Wednesday, 6 February 2008

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Supporters of Barack ObamaWASHINGTON DC: This is Alice in Wonderland: Obama friend and adviser Cassandra Butts has just given the 成人快手 an impassioned interview in which she asserts that this goes now all the way to the Democratic National Convention in August. Could get nasty.

The question is whether the Republicans also make that journey. It seems to me the risk of civil war in the Republican party has been increased by the , because the fight in the Republican party is over policy as well as personality. Happy Birthday Roberta McCain by the way - she is 96 in a couple of days.

UPDATE 0558 GMT: I'm heading into a studio now to co-present the Today programme on 成人快手 Radio 4... My final thoughts on the night, here, in three hours.

Huckabee mugs Romney

Justin Webb | 01:50 UK time, Wednesday, 6 February 2008

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WASHINGTON DC: The story of the night so far is Mike Huckabee, is it not? He has plainly damaged Mitt Romney in the South and equally plainly he has stayed in the race with the intention of doing that. Feeling sorry for Mitt Romney is not, I admit, an easy task, but he has been mugged by a former Baptist minister, of that there is no doubt.

My question now: does Huckabee get a McCain VP call BUT with the proviso not that he pulls out (which would be the normal call) but that he STAYS IN THE RACE to see Romney off over the next month or so?

Democrats' delicate dance

Justin Webb | 22:49 UK time, Tuesday, 5 February 2008

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bill1_ap203b.jpgAs voting goes on, I offer in support of those who are queasy about Barack Obama. They may be wrong but they have a right to be heard!

And on the Hillary side of the Democrats' delicate dance, an issue that surfaces intermittently but never quite gets the attention it deserves - the .

Mike Huckabee is still the wittiest of the candidates, musing as he cast his vote: "Now, who should it be..."

Potential outcomes

Justin Webb | 16:51 UK time, Tuesday, 5 February 2008

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Too much verbiage already on potential Super Dooper Tuesday outcomes: if you have limited time or (like me) attention span is good.

And someone has drawn my attention to the fact that 'Republicans for Obama' already has a though I see more recently the . I love the idea in this piece that Barack or Hillary will be miffed by the Cameron decision to go with McCain: oh dear, we Brits do attribute importance to our little island that I fear does not quite tally with reality this side of the pond.

Republicans for Obama

Justin Webb | 04:11 UK time, Tuesday, 5 February 2008

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How much of Barack Obama's support over the next few hours will come from Republicans? Not from Independents. Not from Waverers. Not from Undecideds. No, I mean from previously red state enthusiasts.

Barack ObamaI know Republicans who are seriously impressed with the Illinois senator, not because they fear his political acumen but because they think he might be a good thing. Part of it comes I think from their hatred of Hillary but there is more to it than that. Colleagues in the sensed the same thing last year, though it was rather forgotten in the general acceptance of the "Hillary is inevitable" myth.

But "Republicans for Obama" are an interesting and significant force and perhaps deserve their own bumper stickers and all the recognition that goes with them.

How else do you account for the behaviour of - the talk show host and one time Reagan cabinet member - in recent appearances on CNN: Bennett can barely disguise his admiration for the man, as I see .

Finally what are the surprises to watch for as much of the nation goes to the polls?

Conventional wisdom is that the Republicans will back McCain overwhelmingly and the Democrats will fight on. But might Romney use a surge in California (which some polls have picked up) to turn things around?

And on the Democrats' side, conventional wisdom is that the Clinton early voting effort - postal ballots - will hold off any late Obama surge. But here is , which by Wednesday may have become the new conventional wisdom...

Defying predictions

Justin Webb | 04:45 UK time, Monday, 4 February 2008

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Anyone predicting anything with any degree of certainty for Tuesday was not in New Hampshire. is the best analysis I have seen of the whole thing. I know it is all about delegates now, but it also is not: the magic of winning counts for something. If Hillary or Barack wins California and New York, the wind will be in their sails even if the delegate count is close.

The Obama advert midway through the Super Bowl was audacious but statesmanlike: he could have dressed like a footballer and looked goofy but was well advised not to.

Meanwhile, a reminder that your parents have the capacity to embarrass you even when you are in your seventies. It will have no effect on the race, but John McCain's mum has done it again, suggesting that party members will when they back him (she actually holds her own to make the point). She is wonderful: I hope she talks to the 成人快手 soon...

Coffee and McCain

Justin Webb | 23:54 UK time, Saturday, 2 February 2008

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NASHVILLE: A couple of important coffee points before moving on to Nashville, where I am now: John Kecsmar and others might be interested to see that McDonalds is about to start serving espresso. I think this could be a response to my encouragement.

And Greta, I am wounded by the English cuisine line: London is now (really) a culinary centre of the world, though you need to be as rich as Mitt Romney (before the campaign) to enjoy it. As for smelling Obama's brew - well I do, of course, and his advisor on Europe, Phil Gordon of , is a good friend of mine. But the man sounded pompous to me as I drove through Ohio in the middle of the night: he just did.

Emmanuel, I promise I have no hidden agenda: in fact my repetition on British airwaves of the old (but effective) slur that Hillary tends to remind men of their first wives got me into no end of trouble. As for Justin's point about the dream ticket: as a journalist it'd be mine as well. But I agree she might consider it; he will not: why would he?

And so to John McCain, whose event in Nashville was small, cheerful and military in tone. The candidate begins his speech now with the economy (even straight talkers with no pollsters can read the front pages) but he gets into his stride when talking about terrorism and military honour. At the end, I asked him whether a McCain foreign policy would differ much from Bush. "Yes" is the answer - and the difference will be America coming in from the cold on climate change. In the UK and Europe, that would be a huge deal.

For a partisan look in more detail at the same event I was at, go to a local blogger who attended . I must say, the McCain effort is still looking wonderfully low key and amateur (I mean that in a good way) - the message is muscular but homespun. Afterwards I talked to former Fred Thompson backers who want McCain now: is the Republican party (apart from the cable news barmy crowd) finally doing what it is good at: gathering round a frontrunner?

The Great Debate

Justin Webb | 10:59 UK time, Friday, 1 February 2008

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YOUNGSTOWN, OHIO: Greetings from the Ohio turnpike. My senior producer, Adi Raval, and I just attempted to leave Chicago鈥檚 very busy but somewhat dreaded O鈥橦are International Airport. A taste of the usual winter season was all it took for the airlines to cancel most of their flights to Washington, DC.

pair_body_getty.jpg So we decided to drive, armed with McDonald鈥檚 coffee - not that bad actually - back to Washington. Duty calls and in this case, that means a piece on healthcare, the issue Americans are increasingly saying they care the most about, for tonight鈥檚 main TV news bulletin.

All of this time in the car allowed us to listen, but unfortunately not watch, last night鈥檚 debate between Senators Clinton and Obama in Hollywood.

People who watched the first ever television debate between Senator John F Kennedy and Vice President Nixon, preferred the upstart Democrat. While those who simply listened to it on the radio preferred the Republican.

What I found, simply by listening to the voices, was an Obama who sometimes came across as long-winded, ponderous and perhaps even pompous.

Hillary seemed at times better prepared and sharper.

And for those expecting fireworks between Clinton and Obama, what you got instead was 鈥淐linton, Obama go toe to toe, keep gloves on鈥 as the put it.

For what it鈥檚 worth, here is one of the debate.

So is the Democratic nomination fight close to being over? Who knows? But as we鈥檙e driving on the Ohio turnpike, I think of three things - the need for Starbucks that are open 24 hours a day, preferably drive-through. Secondly, the Democratic primary takes place here in March.

UPDATE: What was the third thing, asks Puzzled? A good point. This is what long road trips do to you... But I'll come up with something later.

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