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'A simple proposition'

Brian Taylor | 12:26 UK time, Monday, 28 September 2009

Intriguing speech by Iain Gray at the .

Three themes: a sustained personal attack on Alex Salmond; a warning to his own party to remain united and, most intriguing of all, a nod to the .

The Salmond attack was fairly familiar stuff, spiced with the suggestion that the SNP would favour a Conservative victory at the UK general election (because it would add to the strain on the Union.)

The warning to his own party was based upon his depiction of the relative political impotence of opposition: Labour's condition in Scotland. Coming your way at Westminster, he implied, unless you unite and fight.

But to the referendum. This is what Mr Gray said: "The day may well come when the people of Scotland want a referendum to settle their constitutional future once and for all. But not now, in the midst of a recession. And not on a question rigged by the SNP."

Pressed subsequently by the wicked media (self included), Mr Gray indicated there was minimal to zero prospect of these conditions being met before the next Holyrood elections in 2011.

Consider those conditions. There are three. One, that the economic crisis is over. Two, that the question suits Labour. And three, that it settles the question "once and for all".

'Running a mile'

Timing, wording and impact. All three, it appears, would have to be met before Mr Gray would support a plebiscite.

Pressed still further by the w.m., Mr Gray confirmed that he had supported Wendy Alexander in her .

However, Alex Salmond had "run a mile", the recession was now in place - and the moment had gone.

Might it return before 2011? Seemingly not. The focus had to be on economic recovery. (Condition one). And Alex Salmond would not sanction suitable wording. (Condition two).

So what is his objection to the Salmond wording? Too conditional, apparently.

The SNP want to ask the people of Scotland whether they agree or disagree "that the Scottish Government should negotiate a settlement with the Government of the United Kingdom so that Scotland becomes an independent state."

According to Mr Gray, that is a "rigged" question. It gives the impression there will be further phases, that the choice is not final.

Implicit conditions

Nationalists say it is a realistic question which also deals with the limited powers of the existing Scottish Parliament: the fact that the constitution is reserved to Westminster.

But consider also Mr Gray's implicit third condition, that the issue would have to be settled "once and for all".

How could he secure that? Mr Salmond has indicated that the question of independence would fade for a generation if defeated in a referendum.

However, presumably Mr Gray concedes Mr Salmond would be entitled to object to the wording of the referendum.

The SNP leader could scarcely be expected to abandon or shelve his party's key aim if he did not trust the wording, if he thought it "rigged".

Pressed once more, Labour's Holyrood leader said he favoured a straight choice. Yes or no to independence. Yes or no to ending the Union.

No multiple options. No Calman versus SNP White Paper. A simple proposition, attracting a yes or no response.

Might he table such a bill if he were to become first minister? Mr Gray declined to specify.

Indeed, he was notably imprecise presumably because he does not envisage an early date for such a referendum.

Intriguing, nonetheless.

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