Lies, damned lies and statistics
- 9 Mar 07, 12:56 PM
Cardiff - It occurred to me as I was browsing through the match data on the 成人快手 Sport website before this weekend's round of games that rugby didn't used to revolve around statistics.
Now we have stats for everything - time in possession, scrums wons, line-outs lost, free-kicks conceded. Free kicks! Always the difference between winning and losing that one.
There is a place for the number crunching because it enlightens spectators and gives coaches and players a base from which to work on their improvements, but sometimes they just seem to explain the obvious.
Wales struggled to get a hand on the ball against Scotland, and kicked a lot of it away against France and as a result had only 30% possession in the official statistics table, which wasn't a great surprise.
Statistics can also be used both ways - a losing side can point to a good performance in the scrum or the line-out. A side which wins can still be criticised for the number of handling errors it made.
Tommy David of Pontypridd and the Lions was in studio for one of our radio programmes last season and said: "Rugby is such a simple game. You pick up the ball, go forward, and if you cross the line you put it down."
True, you may commit 250 possible infringements on the way to the try line, but it is easy to understand his point.
If Wales had 1% possession and won the game 5-0 against Italy on Saturday, I know I'd be pleased.
Stats have their place, whichever way they are spun, but the most important statistic, particularly if you haven't won yet, is two points.
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True, if you look at the stats for Scotland Italy you could be forgiven for thinking that Scotland were the victors....
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If you look at statistics for England games for the last 4 years you might have expected them to have won (Posession and time in opp. half).
Not the case I'm sorry to say. The only stats that matter are points on the board.
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76.4% of all blogs are now stating the bleeding obvious.
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If you will truly be happy with a 5 point victory against Italy, then you are not exactly shooting for the stars are you? What does that say about your opinion on the state of Welsh rugby?
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Its all about posession. You can't score without it. Wales need to win their own ball and disrupt as much of the oppositions ball as possible.
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Statistics; priceless to a statistician but do they have much meaning to the average watching fan? After all, the person who pays the money to be there doesn't have this as part of the ticket price so why the viewer? And the thing that really annoys me are those bloody soccer scores that are put on during the game. Are they necessary? To whom?
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I think stats are here to stay in rugby, just like in any sport. By and large, I think any coach has a lot to learn from them, but you're right to point out that they can occasionally be flawed.
I think the best example from this year's tournament has to be Simon Taylor's try from England's lineout at Twickenham - the stats actually showed England as 'winning' that lineout - the rationale being that two England players actually got a finger (and not much more!) to the ball before it reached Taylor!
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Statistics are nothing more than a systematic recording of the events of the match. Why get so bothered? The great thing about stats is that we can analyze them to find sometimes surprising things about which events are important when it comes to winning a match. Bill James, the father of sports statistical analysis, said that a good statistical analysis should yield about 20% surprising results. For example, analysis shows that posession time is not a very good indicator of who will win a match. Somewhat surprising.
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75% of statistics are made up
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I think statistics add a little extra to a rugby discussion, however what they often fail to show is that it's not the amount of possession that's important but quality of possession. New Zealand would beat the majority of International teams comfortably with 30% of the ball.
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Statistics, Schmatistics! You can use statistics to prove anything...87% of all people know that.
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I'm about 67% sure that nine out of ten statisticians believe that 20% of the time, at least 83% of statistical records are more or less two thirds actual facts and one third approximations and that can produce an estimated error margin of about 20 to 33%, depending of course on the statistical measurement procedure.
Stats have a purpose, but they are not the only thing to take into account. All they do is portray select information. A particular viewpoint or part of the puzzle and not the whole thing. Stats can point out stengths and weaknesses and give options for improvement. For specialized analysis they are useful but to understand the game itself you just have to EXPERIENCE it.
Even without over 90% of possesion, you can still put 30 points over an opponent.Italy put 21 points past poor Scotland in 7 minutes. Stats are good, just don't forget the game itself.
Come on Wales! Hope to have a good game in Rome and lets win one! - please.
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I love statistics. You can use them to prove (or disprove) almost any thing.
So...can any body tell me why scrummaging technique is given such prominance (when it is almost impossible to win against the head) over line out technique where there is always a chance of winning on the oppostion throw? In the last round of six nation games there were over twice as many line outs as scrums.
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Statistics state that 95% of the time statistics may be right; but 95% of the time you may have the right to be 5% wrong at least!
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If you can't measure it, you can't manage it so statistics have their place.
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Statistics are like mini-skirts - they give you good ideas but hide the most important thing ;-)
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Regarding post 9 - that is only true 50% of the time
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my favourite definition of statistics; they are like a bikini, what they reveal is interesting, what they conceal is vital!
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Not everything that counts can be counted. Not everything that can be counted counts. - Dr. Charles Garfield
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"Pick the ball up,go forward and put it over the line."None of that in the Ireland,Scotland game,37 points scored and one try,i thought it was supposed to be a game of rugby,not goal-kicking.Awful.
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Hmm. If statistics were the indication of the better team/player then Lee Trundle would be England striker, Ashley Giles (a far better bowler than Warne) would be world No1 wicket taker and England would have only lost two games out of their last twelve.
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Only one statistic ever really matters - the final score
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I'm reminded of a quote. "He uses statistics like a drunk uses a lamppost - for support rather than illumination".
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The colours red and blue go so well together. I Really like Hook's hair but I think that Henson has far nicer legs! Troncon might be a more solid scrum half but he really is pretty ugly xx
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